Quantumcat

If 3♦ was non-forcing, he can't possibly have slam values.

Mostly related - I know of someone at a bridge club who used to pinch the hand records printed out for the next session off the copier. He'd copy down the double dummy contracts onto a score sheet so no one would notice. When discovered and confronted and asked whether he derived any benefit from this, he admitted it made him play worse.

My partner wrote an excellent article in Australian Bridge a few years ago. I'll see if I can locate it. I don't see where the problem is. With a few partners I play 1♠ denies a major and is a 1NT response or weak with a minor. Opener can just make his normal reverse or bid 1NT with a balanced hand of the correct range.

In sandwich position there's a very good chance responder has a yarborough or close to it and would like to be able to get out in 2♣ or 2♦. Not as sure about balancing position, but probably if you (direct over their 1-opening) have a decent hand with a five card suit you would have overcalled, so you either have a bad hand with a five card suit, or a bad or good balanced hand, or unbalanced but with their suit. With a bad hand with a five card suit, it may be clubs or diamonds so you'd like to be able to play there. With the good or bad balanced hand or good or bad hand with their suit, you're either going to raise the notrumps or pass so there's no problem there. And with a good hand and a four card major (perhaps missing the other major so you couldn't make a takeout double) you can always make a cuebid.

Thanks, you are right - a 3-3 split can't happen simultaneously with J doubleton so in the formula (A OR B) minus (A AND B) for finding the probability of either A or B happening, (A AND B) is zero. So you can't use the shortcut 1- (A OR B minus A AND B) = (1-A) AND (1-B).

Had to think long and hard about where West and South are on the table - it's right. Feels like the play is going in the wrong direction though.

Isn't dummy in the wrong spot if you were opening leader?

Alright, that satisfies me. I'm not very good at matchpoints - didn't think of something like that. The double is probably risk free since 4♥ making would surely be a bottom anyway :-)

How about someone come up with a hand for partner that is consistent with him not doubling for a game-try, or passing because he wants to defend hearts, on the previous round?

I think system is not on after 1NT balancing, and 2♥ was a cuebid showing at least an invitational hand. 3♣ was probably supposed to say where his values were (when they were all spread out he had trouble figuring out which was his best suit). He can't possibly have "twice rebiddable clubs" as that shows a good six card suit usually (correct me if I'm wrong) - this is the wording used if the auction goes for instance (1♥)(2♥) 2♠. 2♠ will be alerted "twice rebiddable spades, 12+ total points" or something similar.

Thanks, I didn't think of that. I guess if he had three or four including the jack, he would not pitch, since we will see the jack drop, then just draw his trump and not worry about ruffing a diamond. I wonder why this is a question then? The natural thing to do with no thought is to finesse (pre-empters usually have singleton trumps). I thought I noticed something that meant we couldn't take it (the need to ruff a diamond). But it turned out to not be a problem after all.

There's a beginner book on defence, by Root, that covers opening leads in depth as well as other useful beginner defence stuff, like signals, when to cover, when to duck, etc. I don;t remember the title but it's quite big and thick and has a white cover with green writing covering it.

You are also assuming in your line that trumps are 3-2, so whatever percentage you come up with, the dummy reversal line is 100% (both cases assuming are 3-2 spade break, but dummy reversal needs no more than this, whereas you do).

Can you play a spades tournament the same as a normal duplicate, or teams match? If not, why not? Haven't ever played spades, but quickly looked up the rules after reading this post.

If we take a finesse, we want diamonds to be 3-3 since we can't ruff one anymore. If the drop works, then we can ruff a diamond and the diamonds can be distributed however they want. Finesse seems much more likely than 2-2 spades but requires the diamonds as well - I don't know how to calculate these probabilities but gut says finesse AND 3-3 diamonds is less likely than 2-2 spades so I'll try dropping.

If he is just bidding because he has extra values and is balanced(ish), why didn't he make a game try over 3♥? I don't think he can have this hand?

Alternative is the play transfers after a 2NT rebid. This way you can show all your suits at a lower level and also escape with weak hands if that happens to come up.

Knowing about side suit stuff is important, alternatively you can just have keycarder make asking bids in the suits they care about. 1st step = lowest suit, 2nd step = middle suit, 3rd step = higher suit. Ignoring suits known to be short. Steps don't include trump suit or 5NT (trump suit yes if pard can have 3 or more keycards). Can continue making more asking bids (step lowest of remaining, 2nd step higher of remaining). Responses: (aces already shown count as an x) 1st step = nothing (xxx+) 2nd = Q or doubleton (step by keycarder asks which) 3rd = Kxx+ 4th = x (if possible) 5th = Kx 6th = KQ Now keycarder uses the room they have to ask the questions that they find important, rather than the room being used to tell them stuff they may not care about.

I'm not sure what he'd have for his double, because if he had some sort of game try he would have doubled instead of 3♠, and if he wanted to defend hearts you'd think he'd pass. I'll wait to see what others say :-)

I got Grovenored this weekend. I didn't think it really happened in real life. I had AQ9x of spades in dummy and 8x in my hand. Spades are led. I play small to see what happens. RHO wins the king and switches. Later on as I am playing off long suits, LHO discards the jack. This is quite suspicious, cause if he hangs onto both the jack and ten, he can stick one in when I play the suit to keep me to two tricks (he'll have J7 and I'll have 9x with no more smalls to lead towards it). When I lead a spade, he follows small, and I play the ace, expecting the ten to drop (this is why you should pay attention to the opening lead spot, so you can use rule of eleven later!). But it doesn't. Grr!

I think you might have your probability wrong, you don't add them together, but rather multiply their chances of not working. For example if there are four finesses to take and you need one to work to make your contract, you wouldn't add 50% + 50% + 50% + 50%, which would give 200%. You would multiply 0.5 X 0.5 X 0.5 X 0.5 = 0.0625 so the chances of making your contract would be 93.75%. In the case of pard having one spade, using your quoted probabilities, 1-0.355 = 0.645 and 1-0.16 = 0.84, 0.645 * 0.84 = 0.5418, which gives a 45.82% chance of the spades running. When pard has no spades, using your quoted probabilities we have 0.78 * 0.985 = 0.7683, so you have a 23.17% chance. If you weight these two possibilities (pard with one spade and pard with no spades) equally, you'll get a total 45.82 * 0.5 + 23.17 * 0.5 = 34.495% chance of the spades running.

This is a good idea, I have seen lots of supervised players/experienced beginners not know how to handle NT transfer auctions, they might rebid 3M with a gameforce hand with five major (thinking they are giving partner the choice of 3NT or 4 major), or rebid 2NT with a bad five card major and a weak hand (they were told they must transfer with a five card major, but didn't like the suit so tried to get out of it afterwards) etc. Your comments about system forgets is sort of like in chess between beginners, where the person that wins has just made less silly mistakes along the lines of putting a queen on a square diagonally in front of a pawn because they forgot a pawn captures diagonally. In bridge between beginners the side that wins probably ended up in fewer stupid contracts than the other side due to forgetting system :-)

If pard had four spades and a few HCP (like 4+ to 10-) he would have bid 2♠. So if you end up in 2♠ it will be on something around 16 total HCP with the good trumps getting forced. It's possible you have only 12-15 and responder made a heavy single raise and opener decided not to invite, and they wake up and bid game. If pard has a few HCP you are unlikely to have a good minor fit, as pard would have bid with a five card or maybe good four card suit. So you might end up in a bad or OK fit with a decent amount of HCP (with which you'd rather defend, as you have a good shot at taking 2♥ down), or in an OK fit with few HCP (with which you'd rather suffer -110 than risk a variety of minuses), or worst case scenario, a bad fit and few HCPs, with which the opponents might even double you. If you wanted pard to compete over 2♥, you should have given him more information by overcalling your five card suit, then making a takeout double. Then he will at least bid his two or three-card support rather than one of his other two or three card suits if he has the worst possible hand for you. He will also be more informed as to the option of passing - it wouldn't be very nice defending with an eight or nine card fit and only a slight edge over the opponents, would it? If you are going to make another takeout double, you'd be prepared - you would have to not mind playing a 4-4 2♠ opposite a near yarborough, or a 4-3 2♠ where you will be reduced to 3-3 trumps after trick one, then 3-2 trumps after trick three, or 3-minor with a bad fit, and pard should be able to judge when to pass - if he is sure there is definitely no fit for your side, and he has some defence himself. A 12-count with 40(54) isn't prepared for any of this. Did you think about the upsides and downsides of doubling again, or did you just think, "well I'm better than I might have been, so I have to take some sort of action"?

It is easier to get to slams when you start showing your suits at the one level, as opposed to the two or three level. Don't we hate it when the opponents pre-empt? Why would you do it to yourself?

If playing a long match, if someone gets their declarer play wrong because of your lead, just remind them your defence will be much less accurate than their teammates, and they will probably get away with a few contracts that will be beaten at the other table - they probably won't be so upset anymore. As long as you don't have any implicit agreements and really do lead random cards there's probably no problem. If however you start seeing say, a nine in some particular auction and you think that you pard probably has q9xx, then you are developing implicit agreements and will have to either find some way of describing what you do, or go back to standard leads.