bluecalm

I am used to playing 1NT is ~11-14 in reopening seat so I didn't consider it. Do you prefer other style or do you bid 1NT regardless ?

The point is that partner's strength is over opener strength so even if a hand is invite opposite opening it may be worth forcing to game opposite overcall. I think helene_t said everything which needs to be said about this hand.

What does doubling and bidding 4♠ shows ? Very strong hand with spades or 2suiter ? If strong hand then N have easy slam try. If 2suiter then I guess it's bad luck.

This is completely wrong. First weak hands with either 6diamonds or 5diamonds-4+clubs are way more frequent than slammish hands. Second there is a lot of space in this sequence so it's not like you are unable to explore slam if you don't have 3♣/3♦ available for the purpose. There are 3M bids which can be used as Aquahombre said to either show values or shortness, there are 4m bids which can be used as either natural slam tries or some kind of kc asks (I prefer natural tries) and last there are 4M bids which can be used as splinters with 5-5 minors. So you lose some precision with slam hands. Now how much do you lose with weak hands with 6diamonds or 5d - 4+c ? The answer is: a ton. How bad do you think is passing a hand like: Kxx x QJxxxx AJx ? I made simple simulation for this hand. 3♦ makes 90% of the time while 2Nt makes 31% of the time. Which means that you lose about 3imps/hand by passing. This is huge. Giving up blackwood, stayman or transfer wouldn't produce even comparable damage on hands where they come up. This hand is not special in any way. You can easily have 6-4 in minors and even weaker hand where you will just handle opponents 5+imps on average passing 2NT when vulnerable. Thinking this way is sure way to never make progress. You can assert any random treatment and say "well every system/treatment has some advantages and disadvantages" so it can't be bad ! Many treatments which just plain suck made their way to "standard" in America (Capp for example) but here playing 3m as forcing is so bad I don't believe it coudl sneak into people's mind as standard :) I don't know Lawrence's take on 2/1 but are you sure 1m - 2NT isn't 12+ there ?

One reason might be that holding xx KJx KTxx KTxx You don't want pass nor you want bid 3nt. I am not saying transfers are useless here. I am saying that the cost is useful natural call which you no longer have applying transfers.

Even if I had a partner who is willing to accept every piece of science in the system I wouldn't change it. Imo there is value in bashing games here and not telling them exactly what I have in hands where 3NT is to be played anyway.

And what exactly was the alternative action ? Easy double especially if 2♦ then doesn't show very strong hand.

LOL. This must be one of the worst agreements ever.

I never use those and i have no idea what they mean. There isn't anything even close to being improper in your posts. Direct expressing of your opinions even if they are strong are more than welcome.

A lot of different styles... Imo doubling with E hand is suicidal. Opponents may have like 28hcp and we have weak 4-4-4-1 vulnerable. I guess if you like doubling in direct seat as you were in balanced seat then indeed 3♣ is bad in balanced seat.

This is completely off. Maybe it's too risky but the question is really if it makes ~40% of the time or 60+% of time. Just to refute your "-200 is certain" assertion here is one of the many generated layouts : [hv=n=sq862hat84dk962ca&w=sak93hj5dt3cq9543&e=s7hk632da754ck872&s=sjt54hq97dqj8cjt6]399|300|[/hv] Where +130 looks certain (and you would make even without K♥ or A♦). I run a quick simul with kinda optimistic assumptios (they raise with 4 spades) and 3♣ makes 63% of time. The question here is how likely is partner to have 5+♥ (the more often, the worse) and how likely they are to raise with 3 spades (the more often the worse) and how likely they are to double you.

If you play a style with light overcalls the chances of partner having 5+ hearts are slim. She should have 1 spade, 4 hearts, on average 4diamonds. The chances for club fit are huge, also there will be one or even two spade ruffs available. I like 3♣.

Done. Thanks TimG. I am looking for discussion after the round as the boards were interesting/difficult.

I think top expert's opinion aren't very valuable when assessing what weak player may come up with. People who play bridge at high level on regular basis just don't see enough stuff your piff paff average Joe may come up with. In this case though no matter what subset of bridge playing population you choose to your panel I am pretty sure 6♦ won't receive any votes (or wouldn't receive back then, now many bbo forum regulars can't resist... ;) ).

We could bid now. I will try to pm hosts if they are online.

Your system lacks what is one of the most important bid after michaels: weakish raise. You really don't want to pass holding for example: (after 1♦) xx xx KTxx Axxxx I would go with something similar to what gwnn said. One of the 2M bids should be limit raise+ and 3m should be weakish hand which may want to compete. One thing you can do is differ between limit and gf raise (2♥/2♠) or use those bids for good hands with clubs/diamonds (as gwnn said).

Nobody vul; ♠95 ♥K54 ♦AQ652 ♣Q75 2♠ pass pass pass Your lead. This is another real hand. This time Versace chose different lead than my intuition and my simulation suggests. What's your choice ?

I think even playing super light overcalls you have to gf with that. I think style where this is an invite is unplayable because it's too difficult to find out about combined strength. That's the cost of super light overcalls. Sometimes you will be in bad/hopeless game. Live with it and don't try to mastermind invtiting bids with 15hcp and 4card support.

Our side vulnerable; matchpoints ♠95 ♥QT987 ♦753 ♣A72 Pass Pass 1♦ 1NT Pass 2♦ 3♣ Pass Pass ????? Double now is just extras. What is the best action ? I am pretty sure pass is normal at imps. At matchpoints I am lost. If they were vulnerable I would be more happy about passing but here they might be stealing. Thoughts ?

+1 Interface is kinda old and may require some learning but once you are comfortable with it it's really powerful and easy/fast to use. I love this program. Especially simuls for the best lead and no of tricks available in given suit are cool.

I open playing precision, pass playing anything similar to "standard". I guess it's "yes" in the survey. I think vast majority of people would fold.. err pass it.

nvm

Pass. First instinct was 3NT but after thinking about it I think it won't make too often and sometimes it will be disastrous.

Optimal strategy for declarer is to always put the T. Optimal strategy for defender is to always lead low. Let's try to prove it. EV for declarer if he always put the T is 2/3 wins 1/3 loses (he always wins if RHO has AJxx, KJxx and loses against AKxx). Is there anything defender can do improve his expectation against this fixed strategy of declarer ? The answer is clearly no because he holds the J 2/3 of the time so no matter how smart he is he will lose 2/3 of the time he is looking at the J. Now is there anything declarer can do improve his expectation against defender who always lead low ? The answer is again no because if he puts the Q even slight % of the time his expectations will fall below 2/3. That proves that always leading low and always putting up the T is pair of optimal strategies for both defender and declarer by definition (no player could improve his/her strategy against strategy of other player). This doesn't mean there aren't more pairs of optimal strategies though.

I think this is pretty good scheme. The biggest disadvantage is that you need many bids to make simple invite giving them chance to make lead directing double. On the other hand you gain a lot with 4M-5+♣ hands and invites are overrated anyway so it's not like the problem arises often.