bid_em_up

I don't really like this argument but I agree with the rest of your post. (although you shouldn't call it "Han's argument" because I didn't come up with it myself, it's a well-known problem). OK, I admit that I don't really like that argument either. I will be happy to scan a U.S. Half Cent for you, so I don't like it either. :D (Yes, at one time they did exist...)

4♣. You can reasonably expect to be forever locked in dummy in 4H, leaving it with practically no play. 4C will likely have chances or give you the chance to go down as few as possible. If partner bids 4D over 4C, I am unsure what I would do, but right now, I do not have that problem and I deal with them one at a time. :D

What Justin originally said, with a caveat. It's awful, unless it is your known partnership style to open this sort of hand as a weak 2 bid. And even then, I agree with his later comment of "If my partnership mandated a 2D opening with this hand I would say that style is awful." :D

In the problem as given, you are told one envelope is half the value of the other. You are then allowed to open one of the envelopes that contained $5000. Call this envelope A. But you do not know if it was originally A or originally B. :D A is $5000. You are told this. The amount of unopened envelope B must be either $2500 (1/2 of A) or the amount in the other envelope must be $10000 (making A = 1/2 of B, or 2A). The problem with your idea is you are assuming you always opened envelope A, when in fact you do not know which one it originally was.

No, 2*Inf=Inf and Inf/2=Inf. That's not a problem. The problem is that if there's an infinite number of boxes, some must have higher probabilities than others. Since otherwise each particular box would have probability 1/Inf=0 and therefore it would be impossible to open a box, events with zero probability never happen. I'm talking envelopes. There are only two of them. :) It doesnt matter if the envelope A has $1, $5, $50, $1,000,00 or $N+1 in it. The other envelope will contain 1/2 or two times that amount. I don't get the part about some must have have higher probabilities than others. But thats ok, I don't really want to either. :D

I think Hannie is saying that because you cannot assign a number to infinity, you cannot define 1/2 of infinity or two times infinity, the problem is not possible to solve mathematically. Is this correct, Han? It doesnt matter what number you pick is what I am saying. Given that infinity is infinity, you can let infinity = A. But....if A = infinity, you can always come up with 2 times infinity (because its infinity, it can always be twice as large as itself, or 1/2 as much as it originally was). You are using infinity as a finite number in this case (even though it really is not). Logically it makes sense (to me) to let infinity be equal to N+1, in which case the problem still breaks down to: A = N+1 B = 1/2(N+1) or B = 2(N+1) 2B = 2 1/2 (N+1) B= 1 1/4 (N+1) 1 1/4(N+1) > N+1 Han is way above my head though in his examples. :)

The problem with these statements is that the envelopes in question contain a finite (and definite amount, $5000). All the other "probabilties" are meaningless. It is not meaningless. You will only be able to understand the problem if you consider the complete distribution of probabilities into account. I hope my previous post (where all irrelevant amounts are discarded) clarified this. Yes it is. 1 1/4(N+1) is still greater than N+1. :) and it doesnt matter what amounts are in the envelopes, as long as the amount in the other envelope is always exactly 1/2 A or 2A. I won't argue math with you, though. But logically, it does not make sense. At least not to me.

And then swap back and forth indefinitely as it is now equally likely you have now picked the wrong one. :)

The problem with these statements is that the envelopes in question contain a finite (and given amount of $5000 in the first envelope, call it Envelope A). All the other "probabilties" are meaningless. The only thing that matters in this problem is: Does Envelope B hold 1/2 as much as Envelope A or does it hold twice as much as Envelope A? B must equal either 1/2 A or 2A, and A is equal to $5000 in the problem as Justin has proposed it. So there is either $2500 or $10000 in envelope B, no other numbers matter. Person B is saying his Expected Value is greater if he switches envelopes. I happen to agree. His expected value is the sum total of what he receives by selecting B. (B = 1/2A) + (B = 2A) = (2B = 2 1/2) = (B = 1 1/4A) His expected value (on average) is 1 1/4 A. Lets say he does this 4 times, and meets the 50/50 odds. He draws 2500, 2500, 10000, 10000 = 25000/4 = 6250 which is greater than the 5000 he started with. If he does it 1000 times, 10000 times or a million times, his average expected value still works out to be 6250, which is greater than his current amount of $5000. QED. :) (Yes, I am sure there are flaws in my math arguments, but the logic is the same).

If west guards hearts and diam, you must cash ♣A to squeeze West and you won't know West is squeezed until you try cashing the hearts. So for the squeeze to work, after running the spades, you must cash your 3 minor honors before trying the hearts. You can't try the hearts first, because you won't know what to pitch on the 3rd heart. Sorry... I don't see any way you can combine the squeeze and a finesse. It looks like an either/or situation. And the squeeze is higher probability than a finesse. You dont need to "know" what to pitch on the 3rd heart, necessarily. I think that by reducing to a 5 card ending (after 6 spades and 2 diamonds), - Ax J AQ opposite - KQxx - x and then cashing 3 hearts, you are likely to have a better idea what to do when at trick 12, you lead the club from the table (having pitched the diamond J on the 3rd heart). In some cases, East (or West) will have already solved this problem for you, because they have truly been squeezed. In other cases, the club K will come up when you lead the club from the table (if East held both minor suit cards, he has been forced to ditch the diamond Q or blank the club K at this point). It is only when West holds the club K and East the diamond Q, that you have to decide whether to finesse the K or play for the drop of it. Its still a guess at this point, but you may have a better count on the hand by this point. Personally, I would think it best to finesse at this point as East has room for two cards (Kx of clubs), as opposed to West being known to still hold a heart, leaving room for only one card (the diamond Q or the club K). In all other cases, I think it is irrelevant. Either you already have it made (whether you know it or not), or you were always going down. But...its lunchtime, I'm hungry and not looking at this closely either, so I could be wrong. :)

While searching for airplane jokes, I ran across this gem. A librarian is working away at her desk when she notices that a chicken has come into the library and is patiently waiting in front of the desk. When the chicken sees that it has the librarian's attention, it squawks, "Book, book, book, BOOK!" The librarian complies, putting a couple of books down in front of the chicken. The chicken quickly grabs them and disappears. The next day, the librarian is again disturbed by the same chicken, who puts the previous day's pile of books down on the desk and again squawks, "Book, book, book, BOOK!" The librarian shakes her head, wondering what the chicken is doing with these books, but eventually finds some more books for the chicken. The chicken disappears. The next day, the librarian is once again disturbed by the chicken, who squawks (in a rather irritated fashioon, it seems), "Book, book, book, BOOK!" By now, the librarian's curiosity has gotten the better of her, so she gets a pile of books for the chicken, and follows the bird when it leaves the library. She follows it through the parking lot, down the street for several blocks, and finally into a large park. The chicken disappears into a small grove of trees, and the librarian follows. On the other side of the trees is a small marsh. The chicken has stopped on the side of the marsh. The librarian, now really curious, hurries over and sees that there is a small frog next to the chicken, examining each book, one at a time. The librarian comes within earshot just in time to hear the frog saying, "Read it, read it, read it..."

Blonde Passenger A blond gets on a plane and goes up to first-class. The flight attendant tells her that she will have to move back; her ticket is not for first class. The blond says, "I'm blond, I'm beautiful, and I'm going to California." The main flight attendant is brought in and explains that she will have to move. The blond says, "I'm blond, I'm beautiful, and I'm going to California." The attendants tell the pilot. He comes in and looks the situation over. He leans over and whispers something to the blond and she gets up immediately and moves out of first class. The attendants are flabbergasted, "What did you say to her?" "I just told her that this section of the plane doesn't go to California. ---------------------------------------------- An airliner is coming into land at an airport obscured by fog. Visibility is practically nil, the ILS system is on the blink, so the pilot has to land on wits alone. "Flaps, check," he says to the co-pilot, "Landing Gear, check. Altitude, check. Right, we're going in. Hold on." The plane lands and comes to a screeching, grinding halt; just short of the edge of the runway. "Holy Cow!" exclaims the pilot, "This must be the shortest runway I've ever landed on!" The co-pilot looks left and right and says "Yeah, and about the widest, too..."

A passenger in Coach yelled, "That's nothing. You should see the back of mine!!". (I think you truncated it) ;) If I remember correctly, there are also more to follow.....

I think you almost have to choose other, as it will usually be some combination of a variety of these. For me, the choices are (with some modifications): Based on playing with/against them, even if it's been a while Based on watching their play (via BBO, other online method, or Vugraph) Based on which major events they have been contenders in (not necessarily won) Based on what other good players tell me. Along with some combination of other factors as well. So I don't think you can just "list" it in a poll and get a fair interpretation of how to evaluate someones skill level based on any one particular methods.

What has p been smoking? Silly me, I thought the poll choices were going to be: Rabbit Tobacco Pot Herion Opium Hash Coke other :)

Despite the "logic" of this statement (and I grant that it has some merit), I look at it slightly differently: Unless you can prove that you (and your partner who is expecting at least 5 cards) are as good as Mike Lawrence, then you are better off reserving the major suit overcalls to the "standard" meanings, i.e. 5+ cards. B) Btw, I love Mike's advice and those who follow it. It has substantially increased my usage of the low-level penalty double. :D In response to the original posters question, in either case, the "norm" or standard is still that a 1 over 1 overcall promises a minimum of 5 cards in the suit bid. The fact that other people may overcall on 4 cards, or may recommend doing so, does not change the standard meaning of the bid.

JB, There appears to be (at least to me) some presumption on your part that this hand *must* play in "a slam'" from the thread title. If you believe this, then it is off-base, imo. Just because you "can" make slam in one strain or another, does not mean you necessarily belong in one. This hand does not qualify as good enough to force to slam, at least not for me. If I am reading this wrong, then I apologize. This particular hand is only worth inviting to 6C, imo, via whatever methods you have available to you. I would not want to play 6N on this holding, if that is the choice you are trying to make. It's 5C or 6C, other options are out of the question. 3N might be a possibility at matchpoints, but since the problem is listed as IMP's, I would not play 3N. If you have no methods available to force to game and invite a club slam, or if you decided that no matter what you are bidding a slam on these cards and it is just a question of what slam to bid, then I would transfer to clubs (if possible), bid 6C and pray. If its not possible to transfer, just bid 6C and pray harder. :) jmoo.

1) I think it's horrible too. 2) Evidently, you know more than your opps. :) It is a bad idea. 3) 1♥. 2♥ is ok also. 4) It isn't a worthwhile 2-suited overcall for me, but am willing to grant some liberties given the vulnerability and the texture of the hand. The spots in the side suits upgrade the hand slightly. I would not do it, but I wouldn't consider it atrocious if someone else did. 5) Based on what? You have seen their bidding before, maybe? :) No, I don't think either defender should have doubled. Or let me guess, this was your sequence and one of your opponents did double, right? :)

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I agree with Ben. Most, if not all, of the blame goes to South. Yes, North's double is agressive. No, I don't like it. But considering that North is a passed hand, and can tolerate whatever partner bids, he is not expecting partner to hang him out to dry by making silly bids (such as bidding 3 card suits before a four card suit). South can either double 1N (cards) or bid 2♣. I can't find the words to express how bad I think 2♥ is.

Just as it was obvious to everyone, that she meant passing the 2nd time as well. Keep trying though.

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Yes, English is my native language. Evidently, it is not yours, however. You are not the only one who can be a smart ass you know. Because the statement she made was, "IF I pass, then I deserve to be regulated to the 4th division." You said, "I did not say that, helene". But you did.....if she passed. I fully realized what you meant by that comment. You are implying helene is good enough not to pass. But if she did.....then she would be right there in the 4th division along with the rest of us passers, according to your statement.

No, I didn't say that Helene. I pass, both times. And yes you did....just not to Helene. Rather than ask the question, in another attempt to ridicule someone.....it would be better to run a simulation. When you do, just run it so that in your partnerships, you do not open 11 counts or bad 12 counts in 1st/2nd seats. Since I know that partner rates to have a better than garbage opening, it will work better to leave the double in.