TylerE

In this situation, I think it's pretty dead on. In partscores, DD tends to be a bit friendly to declarer (Get suits right 100% of the time), but in slams tends to favor the defense a bit (If there is a lead to beat it, it _will_ be found, even if odd and non-obvious at the table)

I tend to think on this auction, since 2NT was invitational, responder is NOT restricted by UI. As it isn't clear what opener might be thinking about. Passing 4♥? Bidding 4♠ himself? Trying for slam?

Strong hands start with an X or a Cuebid imo. Neither 3♠ nor 4♠ are forcing.

The thing with inviting, is that when you invite and the invite isn't accepted, you're about 40 pts a board worse off than if you just always passed 2. I've done some additional equity calculations. Basically, at vuln, always passing 2 has an EV of 140.8, always bidding 4 an EV of 178.0, and being in 3 an EV of 102.7. If your invites are 100% perfect, your EV jumps up to 290, but being wrong at all, ever, hurts it quite a bit.

So based on frequency, I've come up with the following total point EVs when RED: Always pass 2: +140.8 Always invite and pass 3: +102.7 Always bid 4: +178.0 Perfect Invite: +290.0 (Basically, scored as stopping in 3 whenever making 3 or less, or bidding game when it's making) Random invites: +140.4 (Responder accepts the invite exactly half the time, at random) Good invites: +185.8 (See below, a bit of a hack) Good Invites EV; Responder accepts the invite when game is... Never when down -3 or more 5% of the time when -2 25% of the time when -1 50% of the time when = 75% of the time when +1 100% of the time when +2 or +3 So this suggests that invites might be a bit better, it's not as huge of an edge as you might think, and if your invites are not pretty good they may well be worst than just blasting.

So, I made this thread... http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/topic/60301-simulation-request/page__pid__726856#entry726856 One the example hand, out of 10,000 trials, it made game 41.62% of the time, which is well above the equity point, so that strongly supports just blasting game.

Thanks!

Not quite sure I but the argument about being able to introduce spades cheaply. I mean, you CAN, but partner having 3, or even Ax, isn't going to want to hear it, so there isn't much POINT in showing the major.

I wonder if there is room for another federation to make things more interesting. How do ABA regs compare to the ACBL? I'd love to see an org sponsor tournaments under far more liberal/progressive regime, with the stated purpose of fostering the highest quality of lay possible, and using e.g. EBU or (even better) Aussie rules. I'd have no problem driving a couple states away to play in something akin to an ACBL sectional in scope, if I could play full-blow FANTUNES or Moscito, and know the directors would be transparent, and trained to a high standard. The opposite of the current ACBL which is feeling more and more like a masterpoint lottery, and/or duplicate party bridge.

Inspired by this thread: http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/topic/60298-mentormentee-disagreement/page__gopid__726825#entry726825 Given: North holds a 15-17 mainstream 1NT opening (So, no 5431, 6333, 7222 or other semi-bal) South holds Kxxxxx of a major, Kxx of another suit, and two small doublestons How often, on all hands, can north take 10 tricks playing in south's major. How often, when north would accept an invite (Say, 16-17 with 3, or 15 with 4 trumps) How often, when we don't take 10 tricks, do we make exactly 9? For bonus points, maybe restrict east to not having an obvious call over 1NT (Say, <18 highs, and no 7 card suits) Can anyone run a sim on this? I stated my (apparently less mainstream than I thought) opinion in the linked thread, and I'm curious if simulations back this up.

I don't think a 6322 with two kings vs a strong NT is reckless in any way. Aggressive sure, but well below suicidal.

I disagree. The IMP equities favor bidding games that are well under 50%, or even under 40% to make. Equally, I've gotten good results passing with very marginal invites. That's the other side of the coin. Basically at IMPs, especially vuln, you really don't want to be at Game-1. +110 vs -100 is a 5 imp swing.

The only thing you invite red at IMPs is slam... (not totally serious, but close to it...)

Much ado about nothing, imo. In all the hands I've ever played 20,000+ , I've held a 28 count exactly never, and a 27 count only once. 24s and 25s are a bit more common, and that's the sequence you're really protecting.

Red at imps? Texas and GLP

That sums it up pretty well. I'd also add that for many (especially Adv+), the splinter could also be a stronger hand, say 18+ that is planning on driving to at least the 5 level, and is fishing for a grand opposite an appropriate hand.

One my of my main partners is about 90% available to play with me on Sat. So pencil in TylerE-TheArb I guess?

I would argue that in my case it doesn't, as without the J♣ (or some other compensating value like a red honor), it _does_ downgrade from a 2NT rebid to a 1N opening.

Can I stop you right here and object? 1NT is not to be opened on 18, ever, ever, ever. That's a REALLY REALLY bad bid, triple especially on a hand where all the honors are working. 1♣-1♠ 2NT-3♣ (Checkback style) 3♠ (3♠)-4♣ (Cue) 4N (1430)-5♥ (2 without) 6♠ Easy auction, when you don't make a dumb 1NT opening.

I always open 1M on those hands. Have 1-5-0-7 I might open 1M depending on suit quality. THe problem is that natural systems have almost no way to back into a 5-3 after opening 1m.

Frankly, Zero Tolerance is the worst possible solution to anything. I am not endorsing in any way "bad" behavior, but zero tolerance is a braindead policy that never ends well. As to the bit about skill levels: Simply, pushaw. You're not the first, and you won't be the last, and I've only seen one common characteristic between those that bring it up, which I will not mention. PS: Masterpoints != Skill, no matter how much some would like that to be true.

4♠ > Pass > anything else, imo. The better my opponents, the less I like 4♠ and the more I like pass.

I think 2♦ is terrible. Pass and lead A♦

I'm available next weekend as a single if needed. Let me know.

8 winner hands are too strong in my book for a 4♥ opening. AKT8th and stiff will lose to Qxx♥ often enough that I don't feel that upset if it happens to make. It's far from a sure thing.