benlessard

penalty is standard meaning, plus here I already pass 1C so partner had the chance to make a very light initial takeout X. Partner can easily have 4(32)2 or even 5332 shapes but withose shape and strenght he can X for penalty planning to X 2C (takeout) later and with those hand and not a very good hand he should be happy defending 1Nt instead of risking we play the hand in a misfit all over the table situation. At Mp if they are white its a different story.

Why not ? partner has 4 game tries available. If partner got an A and Q or C he should be 3C and ill be in game, if hes got AQ of D he will bid 3D and ill be in game. If hes got KH/QH he will bid 3H and ill be able to stop in 3S (with AK of H hes got a WTP 4S) with scattered values he will bid 3S and i will pass since i know Heart H is wasted. The only bad case i see if hes got and A and the Q of D without the J of clubs or an A and J of clubs and nothing else where he will pass 2S. Making game tries where your soft values are is simply common sense.

There is a lot of things i completly disagree here. Ill post my reasoning of the hand its going to be simple tahtn criticizing pts one by one. I would overcall 1S but i have no problems for lower standard X and bid. Both style are surely playable and i dont think one style is better than the other. Note that here we hold spades vs a 1c opening so its the perfect situation for having lower requirement of X and bid. So assume X and 1S is in (decent 16)-bad22 pts range. (some will say 22 is too much but i have to disagree) it not hard to see 22 count that will go down at the 2 level facing a entryless dummy having 1S heavy and expecting partner to continue with thin values make more sense than asking overcaller to bid at the 2 level with borderline hands. Over 1S responder should keep the auction open with any 4 count Imo even with crappy one. The 1 nt rebid is clearly an underbid here but since we dont have a stopper its reasonnable. It suggest a club card, Overcaller AKT in clubs is really looking like 3 clubs tricks now, but advancer will often downgrade the Q of clubs. 2S is normal and suggest a vgood 16 to bad 20. I think 2S is normal since many of responder H holdings will be disapointing. Over 2S the position should be simple, with 2 working cards you bid game (A+Qs is automatic 4S), with 1 you pass with 1.5/scattered values you make game tries. The key in those situtaion is to make the game try in the soft values, Aces are always good k/q not always. I think responder has a clean maximum and can bid 4S. If he want to make a game try a this point he should bid something like 2NT = no fit 3C = K/Q of clubs + 1 other card (most likely a D card) 3D = K/Q of D + 1 other card (most likely 2D cards) 3H = soft H values (H+D or H+S) 3S = scattered values (3Q or 2Q + 2J etc). I really hate the 3S bid 1- the hands is slightly too strong. 2- AQ is in the same suit so why not bid 3D ? After the 3S i see responder having something like xx Hxx (not the A) Qxxx Jxxx

I have never vote on BBO but anyone who suggest a X is getting a minus. Doubling here is #%$# clueless

1♣ --1Nt (6C weak or GF) 2Nt (GF) --- 3D (short D) 3H (C keyc) ------3S (0+no Q) here 3nt = to play 4C = Kh ? 4D KS ? 4H QH ? 4S QS ? 4NT = JC ? 4Nt ? -- 5H (yes +J of H but no J of S) 6C But the same hand with a stiff in the M we would fail because of lack of biddign space.

I wouldnt reach game on this 1 since its a 1S overcall for me. But if I X and 1S I think that partner should bid 3D or game and not 3S. 3D is not a correction and show D concentration wich make a 4S bid so easy. Over 3S its a clearcut pass.

once south show 2A any king will make 7nt cold so i dont see how you can miss 7 here. The only thing you must not do is keycard in H.

The main advantage is that it put the doubler on lead, there is nothing more frustrating than having to lead from a 11-14 pts 4414 when you think partner is broke and didnt bid anything. The way i think is best is having two "1Nt" bids. 1D--(X)--??? 1S = values for 1Nt but no D support (so 5/6 clubs most of the time). 1Nt = values for 1NT but D support (3 if 1D promise 4 or 4 if 1D can be short. So that way if LHO compete your partner can bid 3C/3D without be afraid to hit you with an awful shape. Im sure there is plenty of others treatment. The main point is that XX is simply an underused bid and its a prime estate bid.

this probably has been said many times but transfers over a X are almost a must IMHO. Its an old idea but its becoming more and more popular. XX = hearts 1H = 4S etc The advantages are numerous. The drawback = free X for showing a suit (lead directing) no more business XX

4S WTP, i guess it cost nothing to X first just in case partner can leave it in (v unlikely) 4H would show a hand that because of distribution its in the opening range now (stiff void somewhere or 9/10 fit).

There is a yellow screen in dealmaster pro wich scroll all the hands (review or preview screen i think) in the lower left corner there is a winning lead diagram i just click fast at all the hands and stop cases where QJT or 54 (but not both) is lighted. It goes pretty fast what takes times is eliminating hands that are to "much double dummy" and sorting them. Dealmaster is not obvious to use at first (poor design IMO) but its really quick and has tons of worthy options. As for the 4333/3444 In Montreal most of top opponents open 1Nt with 5M on a regular base, many of them have puppet stayman, ive wanted to compensated some of the hands where responder with 3S and xx in heart would make a puppet stayman. But since the vast majority of the low winning case are xx---Axxx (with or without 98 support) its clear that if they play puppet forget about leading low. For doing the sim and counting the cases it took me around 90 min for 2000 hands and around 50 worthy cases. (but i kind of like to take my time for these kind of things)

partner bid 3nt WTP and I was thinking that it might be close. But its isnt 3Nt has 99% of success vs 93% for 4S. opener going to have a stiff honnor slightly under 50% of the times wich is way higher than i was expecting.

i also made a sim for 97,QJT54,A65,765 against (1Nt)--(3nt) and high H is clearly better http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/topic/46404-simulation-lead-vs-1nt-3nt/

[hv=pc=n&s=s97hqjt54da65c765&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=1np3nppp]133|200[/hv] http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/topic/46338-maybe-obvious/ In this post it was suggested that leading low might be better i was highly suspicious of this and decided to do my own sim with dealmaster pro. For 2000 hands East is 15-17 bal (may have 5M but not all of them) West is 9-14 without 4M (i didnt want to include the 4333/3433 for this sim) double dummy a high H win 458 while a low H win 417. ----------------------low H win & high H lose when xx---A9xx = 17 times A6---987x = 2 times (playing the A at trick 1 block the suit.) k7x---A8xx = 2 times declarer can establish a 3rd H trick ------------------------High H win & low lose when Hx(x)---H9x = 9 Hxx--H9 (H9x--H8, H98--Ax ) = 7 Hx--A9xx = 4 xx(x)--AK9(x) = 10 98--AKx = 1 9x--AKx(x) = 2 (playing the 9 cost nothing here) Kxx--xx = 8 case i didnt count AKx---98x where declarer has 50% of ducking 763---AK8 leading H declarer duck and impossible switch H9x--Hx(x) or 9xx AKx = 11 Kx--xxx = 6 case where opener has a 1S opening. Even if i allow 4333/3444 for responder i think its clear that a high H is better. Also if the opps are playing puppet stayman than many hands where responder has xx in H and 3S are to be removed wich mean that low H make no sense anymore.

[hv=pc=n&s=s97hqjt54da65c765&w=sa83h83dt873caj82&n=skq642h962d942ck3&e=sjt5hak7dkqjcqt94&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=1np3nppp]399|300[/hv] leading low blow the contract. IRL if you lead high do you expect defense to prevail ?

High win Q9---A2 (eliminated) Q65---A9 KQ62---A9 (however north has a 1S opening so its only good if East is dealer) low win A952---q6 (elim there is a double dummy endplay IRL 100% going down) So for 4000 hands it end with 3-2 in favor of J wich simply mean that you wont get rich by leading 1 or the other. Its really even.

leaading High win Q5---A9 (elim) q6---A9 (elim) A9x---KQx (elim -- leading low give declarer an important 2nd entry but IRL the contact go down 100%) Q9---Kx (leading low give declarer a very important entry so its eliminated) Q9---A62 elim leading low win 9xxx--AK (eliminated since declarer can only make double dummy crazy endplay) 1-2 now for the last 1000 edited

for a sim of another 1000 hands south lead with 76,JT87xx,Kxx,76 East has 16-17 pts bal with exactly 4S but not 4H. West has 8 pts not 4S not 5H i get 6 cases where leading high or low H make a difference double dummy. JT wins Q6---A9 AQ62---K95 (this is only legitimate case where leading high is best.) Q9---K65 Q5---A96 Q5---A9 Q9---A5 LOW win none so far for 2000 its 1-2 in favor of leading low.

for a sim of 1000 hands south lead with 76,JT87xx,KJx,76 East has 16-17 pts bal with exactly 4S but not 4H. West has 8 pts not 4S not 5H i get 9 where leading J or low H make a difference double dummy. JT wins Q9 vs Ax (eliminated because IRL he would play the Q) K2 vs Q93 (eliminated) KQx vs 93 (elim) qx VS a92 (elim) KQ6 vs 93 (elim) Q9 vs Ax (elim) AQ92 vs k6 (north has axxx,x,qxxx,AJT9 ) 9xxx VS AQ Q93 vs A62 (eliminated because north has obvious lead directing X of 2clubs) so for the 1st 1000 its 0-2 in favor of leading low. The next 1000 set ill remove the J of D.

JT9x AT7x Jxx Kx and partner showned 3145 18-22 partner bid S before you so hes going to play 4S (defense will be almost double dummy) But if you play 3Nt they will know nothing of your hand (only that you have 8+pts)

97 QJT54 A65 765 It would surprised me very much if a low H is a better lead than an H honnor IRL. I admit that double dummy favor an honor lead. I think the difference (16 cases) is greater than the case of declarer failing IRL but succeding double dummy.If the suit was a minor now it would be slightly better to lead low but not by that much (assuming staymand and opener bid a M) for example can you run the sim a little bit longer or do you have the option to see in how many cases both lead succeed ? (that way we can calculate when leading low "blow" the defense and when leading high blow the defense)

I would lead the 4 of H if i knew the hand would be double dummy after my lead. The J can easily cost a trick and the usual advantage of leading high are not there. (keeping the lead, unblocking etc) Even with Hxx on dummy and partner AHT its no big deal since ill ruff with a insignificant trump. Its surprising that its only 1 trick difference i would have expect more.

At the beginning you need to gain experience and for that you have to play and watch. The 2nd step is were many players hit a wall its because they dont do mental simulation, they just look at their hand weighting the good and bads and they wait for an "inspiration" that will help them take the decision. Some hands you just have to calculate and make a quick check of partner possible cover cards and possible shapes to see if they are going to fit well with your hand. When deciding to bypass game for making a slam try check some card combination in wich its possible to go down at the 5 level.

I see 2 case, north 3D is a COG/responsive X kind of 3D wich mean that south should be 1426 and a slight chance of a 1336 ? (any hand with 2S should bid 3S and not 4C) and north 6322 or 6331 and they are in deep *****. Even if partner S are lousy over 4S partner going to lead H and ill be able to give him a ruff. Its possible 4S/5C x is only -200 while 4H is down 3/4 but there is no way im not Xing here. The 2nd case is north has a slam try without a D control, something like 6421 where he has no good bid. (for me 4C is showing H fit but maybe its unclear for them). Anyway im Xing unless i have huge lead in the match.

C obvious.