jdeegan

:P Faint heart ne'er won fair maid.

:P You make a good point, but au contraire, your example hand gives the opponents ten clubs. This auction is shaping up to be a competitive goat f*ck. Thus consider the merit of getting your ♦AKQ9xx altogether in play ASAP. You got one story to tell and quite possibly only one time to tell it. Just do it.

:P I am with you there. Absent the interference it absolutely should show something like 6-4 with a semi-solid six bagger and 4♥ to at least one honor. The 2♦ overcall does open up 3♦ as a game force. Still, 4♣ is too ambiguous. Forget 4♣. I am getting whittled down to the two sneaky options - double and 3♣. Double is looking better since, at least, I don't have to worry it will be passed out.

:P The opening bid is, imo, a 'no brainer'. Why preempt with 14 HCP? I do have some reservations about going passive with a support double holding (what was that again?) 3-8. Mastermind (or is it Mindermast?) has entered the building. Opponents are never going to believe my hand. Neither is partner, but he/she is outnumbered 2 to 1. My hand has only four losers opposite four hearts to the jack, and everyone else thinks it is just another Wednesday. I have 'le bombe suprise'. What to do? What to do? Should I bid just 3♣, or maybe 4♣? Do I need to hear a bit more before placing the contract? I don't see why not. The spade suit is missing. Maybe the support double isn't such a bad idea? Double it is. O.K. I am with you now. I just hope partner can take a joke.

:P Screwed again! I learned that a double showed cards, and 4NT two places to play with some way to get there. Imo, this should still apply after 2♠ - Pass - 4♠. That said, I am still screwed in this auction. Just for fun, let's assume equal vulnerability. How about a cheerful 5♣? On this auction, partner figures to have some length in the suit. My other bid is pass where, at least, we have a fighting chance for a plus score even though this is exactly where the opponents say they want to play the hand. Any distinction between major and minor suits is long since by the boards. I don't want the cheese. I just want out of the trap.

:P I still don't see it. I guess my browser isn't picking it up. Anyway, I meant no offense. It is just a good habit, imo.

:P I would like to add a minor addendum to the, imo, definitive answer (shown in its entirety above) to the original question. You can actually learn a lot about dummy play from books and computer lessons. Both defense and dummy play require the skill of counting which in turn requires practice and mental conditioning. Expert dummy play also relies on many different recurrent themes. Everything from strip endplays to the Morton's Fork coup. A little book learning applied here can go a long way. On defense, you need a partner, and that makes it quite a bit more complex to learn.

:P The real hand only proves that north can't bid a lick. Not doubling 5♣ with the worst playing hand imaginable is beyond God knows what. Pobrecito south. Imo, 5♥ is correct under the incorrect assumption that my partner is not a clueless idiot who bid like he/she wanted me to take the push.

:P You really need to post a complete bridge hand. Little details like vulnerability and the form of scoring can be important. On this one it really does not matter. Applying the Law of Total Tricks (LOTT) is probably enough. You figure to have one (possibly two) eight card fits. The opponents figure to have one nine card fit. Your ♦Qxx counts as one negative adjustment. Bottom line is 16 or 17 total tricks nearly all of the time. On hands with so few tricks, you should generally pass the double unless you have a clear cut place to play. In this case, you have an almost certain trump trick and an easy opening lead. Sure, you will eat one once in a while, but the percentages favor a pass. Any other call is really bad.

:P Pass. Wtp? The auction could well be legit, in which case we might not beat 4♥. Opponents may have a nice red suit double fit with just enough high cards to bring it home. A double, in most cases, merely improves plus 50 to plus 100. Not good odds. Maybe they screwed up in their auction? If so, let us just try to go for a plus score. The exact number is unimportant unless we get +300 or better - possible, of course, but not a high percentage possibility, imo. Since they are not playing transfer bids over their 1NT openers, one can figure that the auction at most other tables will go differently.

:P 1. Very distinct possibility of a diamond void in partners hand 2. Spade cue bid allows me to locate specifically the club ace 3. A grand is still a possibility, though somewhat remote 4. Spade king is as good as the ace of clubs 5. Disaster hands like: ♠KQx ♥QJ10xxxx ♦A ♣J10 are low probability, and not, imo, worth worrying about.

:P 4♠. Slam is very likely unless we are off tricks to two minor suit aces. The following 11 HCP hand actually offers some play for seven. ♠xxx ♥AQJxxxx ♦void ♣Axx The first step is a 4♠ cue bid which should locate the ♣ ace, which is about all we need for six. Failing to have that, partner needs a ♦ void and the ♠ king. It will be up to him/her to bid slam holding that. A high percentage grand is unlikely, but not altogether impossible given the auction so far. ♠Kxx ♥AQ10xxxx ♦void ♣Axx Does it really matter what 3♦ meant? It was forcing. It sounded strong. You likely had a penalty pass of 2♦, therefore not much heart support, usually. In the face of this, partner jumped to game in hearts. Bidding is a conversation not a bunch of encrypted messages.

:P Open this hand? You gotta be kidding. Conceivably at MP if I needed a board. At IMP's a terminal offense - i.e. if my partner ever did such a thing, we are through for good.

:P Imo, the posters are correct. Open with one♥, and then bid 2♥ over the double. So, you end up in 4♥. This is a very high percentage game. You have only four possible losers and potential discards on dummy's spades given time. A lot has to go wrong for you to go down. Rough estimate of the probabilities: 1. Club opening lead - 50% 2. Club ace with RHO - 80% 3. Heart king with LHO - 60% 4. Heart king with RHO four times - 5% 5. Spades misbehave - 25% Figuring all of these combined chances is a bit of a Bayesian mess (e.g. the location of the club ace and the probability of a club lead are interconnected), but you gotta figure you are roughly 2 to 1 to make 4♥. It's a bidders' game. Not being in 4♥ is an error.

:P 4♦. Excellent down to earth problem. It looks like a crapshoot to me. Anything could work out best. I really, really hate to give up on 3NT (esp. at MP's), but my 3♦ kind of sounded like a plea for just any sort of club stop, and a weak one probably won't do on this hand. 4♦ at least allows us to consider and evaluate the other three possible games. For that matter, maybe four possible games. If partner bids 4NT, I am going to pass.

:P :P I do admire your ingenuity in coming up with a hand where passing 4♦ is right. Bravo! Awesome! Reluctant as I am to in any way disparage your impressive mental acuity, I must point out that your example hand leaves the opponents with eleven clubs between them, and after several rounds of bidding, that suit has not yet been mentioned.

:P East's 'strategy' is that he/she doesn't know how to bid. On that auction, responding to partner's take out double in a suit of four to the nine instead of one with AKQxxx indicates either you have been taking your bridge lessons from the wrong people, or that you are seriously addled in the brain. LHO opened the bidding. Partner doubled. RHO bid one♠. Do you seriously think there is more than a very, very remote chance that your side has game in hearts and hearts only? The possibility of losing the heart suit is nothing compared to properly placing your side for what is shaping up to be a competitive auction. Plus, you want a diamond lead, if it comes to that. Lunacy as a personal choice I can respect, but it is what it is.

:P 4♠ for me. Lets see. The vulnerability is 'unknown'. The spade cards are onside. The diamond cards are almost certainly offside. Partner, unless he is crazy, has as many or more spades than diamonds. RHO doubled 4♦ based, in part, on diamond tricks he was looking at (boo!). 4♠ has not yet been doubled (although odds are it will be). If LHO can't double your 4♠ bid, you will actually end up putting pressure on RHO. Therefore, 4♠, WTP?

:P 3♠ was my initial response w/o seeing the results. My reasoning was that unless partner can pick up spades and diamonds with only one combined loser, this mess will probably degenerate into a scramble hand. In that case 3♠ making four (because partner is such a good dummy player) ought to be an average or average plus board anyway. The actual hand happened to be a perfect fitter, so five spades is almost a laydown, and six is possible. Too bad you were not playing long suit game tries. Too bad your partner chose to take a monstrous underbid on this particular hand. With 17 gilt edged HCP and a singleton, simply bidding 4♠ is correct. Partner is good for nine tricks opposite ♠Kxx and the ♦10. The only possible reason for 3♥ is to hunt for an unlikely slam. In this case, you would end up in game anyway.

:P Oh boy! Life down in the jungle is hard. 1. the initial TO double is pushy, but personally I would make it. Your hand evaluates as (nearly) 12 dummy points in any suit but clubs. 2. the correct response with the east hand is 3♦. Two ♥ is lunacy. The subsequent fiasco follows from this initial blunder by east.

:P An easy 4♠. We lose one club, one heart and one diamond. We win seven spades and three diamonds. At least that is what it looks like.

:P Aw c'mon guys. Our poster didn't bid 4♥ earlier because HE was on lead against a club contract. Same would be true against 6♣, unless they have changed the rules. His hand is so unusual, he really can't figure to get partner's help in this auction very often. Bidding hearts, before and now, just helps the opponents by a factor of, maybe, 10 to 1. When you have a 6-6 surprise (with all the interior spots), you SHOULD be alert to mastermind the hand as soon as you have gathered enough information. The opponents? Stick it to 'em.

:P 5♠ seems clear, imo, just based on experience. To me, a voluntarily bid 4NT, assuming good players, has an unfortunate history of making or, at least, being a good save for them. If I can safely bid on, it seems right to do so. Also, we must consider can they make 6♣? Let us analyze. The opponents have more high cards than we do. We have a 9+ card ♠ fit. The opponents must have a similar fit in clubs or a double fit in the minors. LOTT analysis suggests lotsa tricks, at least 20 with 21 or 22 more likely. I can count, at a very minimum, 18 trumps plus my void. Given my shortness in the minors, partner may well have a defensive trick in one of the minors which could reduce the count by one (maybe even two). IFL analysis finds our side should have at least 13 working points with an SST factor of one. This suggests 10 tricks for the good guys, at a minimum. If partner has the ♥ king or a stiff ♥ or ♠ AQ, we probably make 5♠. All this is a pretty self-evident result. You really don't need IFL to figure it out. Can the opponents make 6♣? Well, it is surely possible. If we have 10 tricks in spades, and there are 22 total tricks, there it is. 22 total tricks requires either no 'impurities' like a ♣ king offside or some nasty ♦ or ♣ holding in partners hand, OR some extra shortness (like a heart void) in their holding. Against 6♣, I plan to lead the ♥ ace. I think fear of 6♣ has two issues to consider: 1. will they bid it? 2. can they make it? Nothing is sure but death and taxes. It's a bidders game. Faint heart ne'er won fair maid. Egad, I am not even close to running out of aphorisms, so I'm just going to bid 5♠ and have done with it.

:P 3NT is not a bad thought. 5♠, 2♥ and 2 elsewhere. Plus, 3NT might lure them into bidding 4♥.

:P 4♠. I would prefer to invite holding a not-so-hot flat 12 HCP, but the pesky opponents have put on the pressure. Put the pressure back at them. 4♠ is, imo, much less of an overbid than 3♠ is an underbid. If I thought there were a chance in Hell that the opponents might take the push to 4♥, I might give more than a passing thought to 3♠.