jdeegan

:P 5♠. I have never heard this auction before, but I have two or three potential tricks. Not enuf to bid six tho.

:P And I double for penalties whenever possible.

:P IMHO if Barry boy showed a little leadership and (God Forbid) some balls, he could walk into a second term. When Bill Gates and Warren Buffet both advocate taxing the rich to balance the Federal budget, it can't be all that far-fetched. It may be a poor long-term strategy, but for the next five years or so it does make sense to raise the necessary money where you find it.

:P I think I get it. If multicollinearity is your problem, ridge regression is a possible remedy. I always favored leaving out the surplus variable(s), or building a better model.

:P It is a 50-50 game?

:P 1♠ You have 8 HCP plus one point for the singleton and three points for the void. WTP?

:P Like a lot of ATB's, there were more than one either or calls followed by a fatal lapse. 2♥ was marginal (could have used the negative double). 3♣ was fixated by the semi-solid seven bagger (but a clear mistake). The double of 4♠ was systemic (a min with game having been bid to make). South made the fatal call. Even opposite ♥ Ax and a running club suit, you gotta break convention and bid either 5♣ or 5♥. The club queen is the key.

:P ex transpose ex inverse, ex transpose y. I have been puzzling over a, thus far mysterious, ridge regression package included in my software for years. What are the alleged advantages of this revolutionary technique? You gotta luv Krugman. Humble country school teacher comes from nowhere to be the Rush Limbaugh of the left. Ain't America grand.

:P I guess if one fool wants to put it up in a public place without so much as a by your leave, another fool has the right to tear it down. Ain't America grand.

:P Gerber - all 4♣ bids are Gerber

:P For me today, a tie between a couple of popular American folk songs: American Pie by Don McLean; and Take It Easy by the Eagles http://www.youtube.com/embed/tr-BYVeCv6U Perhaps, two more http://youtu.be/JJ6Q1ALmxcY

:P A number of my ancestors were frontier sheriffs. Evidently it was pretty much like the mythology of the old west relates. Bringing law and order was the bringing of civilization. As you might imagine, people who chose to migrate to the edge of the world did not in any way cotton to an oppressive degree of law and order. Distaste for that was why they were where they were in the first place.

:P von Mises, Schumpeter and Milton Friedman are excellent. Rothbard was traumatized because his parents were communists (for them it was only that they were anti-Tsar and anti-pogrom). Raised in this environment, he evidently picked up on The Road to Serfdom as an intellectual way out. It seems to have worked for him, but it made him a terrible economist. Personally, I'm sympathetic to libertarianism, but you gotta have law and order.

:P Austrian School economists can be wonderful, but poor Murray Rothbard is to economics as Gee is to bridge. Don't learn bridge from Gee. Don't learn economics from Murray Rothbard.

:P Careful what you ask for because you might get it. I was filling in in some no name MP duplicate on BBO opposite a BBO expert. My first thought was that partner's balancing double was more likely based on high cards than hearts since I was missing 12 spades. To cater to that, I bid 2♣ which was where I lived and which leaves more bidding room. Alas, the hand turned to farce. [hv=pc=n&s=s6hjt62dt843ca982&w=st43h94da652ct753&n=sj85haq3dkqj7cqj4&e=sakq972hk875d9ck6&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=1sppdp2c2s3c3spp4cp5cdppp]399|300[/hv] Down three for an average minus. BBO SAYC plays 1NT in the balancing chair as 10-14 HCP and 2NT as 18 to 20 HCP.

:P 3♥ looks like we might well make it. Pard should have about 10-12 HCP and a stiff spade.

:P Playing IMP pairs. Vul versus nvul [hv=pc=n&s=s6hj652dt873ca982&d=e&v=n&b=2&a=1sppdp]133|200[/hv] How weird? I have been playing competitive bridge for 50 years, and I didn't know what to bid on this simple auction. Partner is an expert player.

:P The problem lies in the qualification. Greece and Germany, for example, don't share the same set of economic specialties. No Greek automobiles or machine tools. Not much German tourism.

:P It's a lousy idea because when the fortunes of your region's economic specialty either waxes or wanes, it is easier, quicker and less painful to have the single price of your currency adjust than for all the other prices in your economy to have to adjust. We had this problem in Texas back in the 1980's when the price of oil and natural gas collapsed. Without our own currency the adjustments came mostly in the real estate and labor markets. Cheap real estate and lots of unemployed workers eventually lured in enough outside investment to return things to normal, but it took half a decade. Notice how the Canadian dollar is weaker or stronger vis a vis the US$ depending on natural resource (esp. oil) prices. Isn't it easier to live with that than the alternative? The one considerable advantage of a common currency is that it facilitates borrowing and lending since the risk of future currency fluctuations is eliminated. Consequently, it is beneficial for different countries to have a common currency as long as they share the same set of economic specialties.

:P Pass (in tempo) for me. Suppose pard has the wrong 8 HCP hand? I might get another chance to bid 5 hearts. "Down one is good bridge" .. duhmastah

delete

:P 2♠ the first time for reasons well-explained in this thread. After 4♠-double, I too want to run, but how? Expecting pard to treat 4NT as being for minors is too obscure for me, and he is unlikely to have a double ♥ stop. 5♣ seems the least of evils. Does RHO look like a player holding five spades and four clubs? Good players usually won't double 4 spades unless they are prepared to double any run out. 5♦ puts all our chances in pard having four or five. If I had another king, I might pass and try to brute it out.

:P You may be miles ahead of me on this one, but I have to point out there is a lot more to this decision than whether or not the opponents have a game. They rarely will. What concerns me is that I am vul looking at a 3-2-4-4 hand with 9 HCP and three small ♠. Passing costs a few IMPs mainly when the points are split and they can make 2♥ and we can make three of a minor (pard did not overcall 1♠). This should be a fairly common result, so at MP's reopening looks more attractive than at IMPs. Bidding costs when they have a biddable game, AND when we go for a number (the result on the actual hand), AND when we double them out in a makable contract (one possible result on the actual hand). Of course, most of the time it won't matter if I reopen or not. Finally, there is the psychological blow of giving up a double digit IMP swing, esp. to a stronger or equal team. This is, indeed, one reason why insurance companies do make money.

Intrade sounds about right, imo. Trouble is with the actual election almost a year away, it's really hard to guess who will win. Gingrich clobbered the Republican field in last night's foreign policy debate - even the commentators said as much. However, he can self-destruct at any time. Imho, Obama can win easily if he campaigns with an aggressive but plausible sounding plan to reduce unemployment. He needs to pretend he is FDR and start advocating some extensive new programs. This recession is unlike past ones. Sluggish employment gains are, at least in part, caused by some fundamental structural shifts in the economy. How many home foreclosures, half empty shopping centers, and poor vehicle sales years do you have to see to get that?

:P It is against my religion to argue against players like Justin who are so much better at the game than me, BUT this time I think there is some basis for Pass, esp. if the opps are stronger. You may lose 5 or 6 IMPs, but you won't go for a number. It's like taking out an insurance policy, although clearly gutless.