AL78

This talk of how to inform the opponents reminds me a bit of a hand last week. RHO opened 1NT, I bid 2C Astro, LHO paused for a fair amount of time, then up pops a question "Is it forcing?". The matter of fact answer is "no", but I typed "no, but partner will only pass with a weak hand and a long club suit". He then cue bid my heart suit. Coincidentally, partner did hold a weak hand with a long club suit and would have passed if she had the opportunity. T thought there was no harm in giving the extra information.

Gerbil works perfectly for this hand my friend and her partner played last week. [hv=pc=n&s=s73hakt4dak3cak85&n=sakqj52hj92d2cq63&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=2np4cp4np5cp5np7nppp]266|200[/hv] Once North finds out about the aces and kings, he can count 13 tricks. Curiously only one pair out of 12 found the grand.

I'd raise to 2♠. In a competitive auction holding the boss suit, show support with support. A simple raise doesn't promise the Earth, but I'd have more than the actual hand because it isn't worth an opening bid IMO.

It is ok to bid Landy with 4-4 if the values are concentrated in the majors. I'm not sure I'd do it with your hand, I'd prefer a bit more substance in the majors, but it depends on how aggressive your style is. I don't think it is any worse than opening a weak NT on a good 11 count, so it is hard luck to your opponent if your Landy bid allowed you to win the part score battle.

I'd have a go, partner is marked with some values and we very likely have an eight card fit somewhere, so don't let them play in their fit at the two level.

That's a bit too deep for me to work out at the table. I was playing for split aces, knowing the ♠A was on my right.

I decided the lead was top of nothing or top of a doubleton. I tried to go through the layouts where going up with the king was right and ducking to the queen was right. Playing low from dummy works if RHO has the ♥A, because I have a second spade stop when they get in and I make easily with overtricks. It doesn't work if LHO holds the A♥ and I win with the queen, since he gets in and plays through my ♠Kx and I'm down. If I duck in dummy and RHO plays low and I duck in hand, he clears the suit and I have to hope LHO has the ♥A. If I play the king at trick one, RHO wins with the ace and clears the suit (I duck once), I again have to hope LHO has the ♥A, else I'm down. If I duck in dummy then whether it is correct or not to win in hand or duck seems to depend again on who holds the ♥A. I could not work out what the percentage line was, and it looked to me like a guess on who holds the ♥A, so I eventually took the latter line. Of course, it was RHO who held it and I went down. I am wondering if I have missed something because 29 pairs played in 3NT with North as declarer and made it with one or two overtricks, ond only three Norths went down. A 29 to 3 ratio of success to failure suggests it wasn't a guess and I missed something which would have suggested the correct play was to duck in dummy and win in hand. What did I miss? [hv=pc=n&s=sk32hq5dt72ckqj87&w=sajt75ha4dq64ct42&n=sq84hkjt8dak53ca5&e=s96h97632dj98c963]399|300[/hv] I don't know how many Norths got a spade lead, if you don't get a spade lead 11 tricks are easy. Even better if you can get South to play it.

MPs. This is one I got wrong and almost everyone else got right, and is an example of a situation where I couldn't work out what the best play is based on the odds. [hv=pc=n&s=sk32hq5dt72ckqj87&n=sq84hkjt8dak53ca5&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=1np3nppp]266|200[/hv] ♠9 led. What is your plan and how do you play at trick one?

I'd have thought the ten was most unlikely to be a singleton. That would mean East holds ♠KQ9765 and didn't open a weak two (or three) in third seat at green vulnerability. I'd expect the ten to be top of a doubleton or maybe T9x(x).

It sounds like partner holds a dirt minimum with a long spade suit, and is telling you his hand is only useful in a spade contract. Partner seems to be trying to play in a spade partscore, so I pass. Partner could have bid 4♠ at their second turn, and you have shown your hand once you bid 2NT.

I enjoy bridge much more if I don't look at the traveller/bridgemate. It just stimulates frustration which can harm my play, which results in more frustration. It doesn't help to know at the time we got the only opponents to bid the game/slam on a hook. Far better to look at the hands after the session and note why we got terrible results on some boards. Problem is, other people like to look at the traveller and voice the result, so I can't always choose to live in blissful ignorance.

To do that, you'd need to analyse what the best possible score each side could obtain given the other side's actions and the rest of the field, and base a score comparing their actual result to the theoretical best possible result. Probably impossible to do, so we are stuck with the current system. The alternative is to take up chess where there is virtually no luck*, and if you lose, you either messed up or were outplayed by a superior opponent. *Once I was in a rook and minor piece endgame with my rook positioned in the centre of the board. My opponent moved his king to attack my rook, hoping to drive it away. I resigned. He asked why. I said my rook has no safe square and is lost. He said he had no idea that was the case when he made the move, and said I was very unlucky.

Because bridge is a game of probabilities, not a game of perfect justice. If there was no random variation, the same players would always be winning. A "wrong bid" at MPs is a bid that will result in an inferior score the majority of the time assessed over a large number of possible layouts of the cards. If the wrong bid is bad 75% of the time, it will be neutral or work out better 25% of the time, that 25% corresponding to unlikely layouts of the cards. Having a low probability of success does not mean no chance of success, but because an inferior action worked on one specific layout does not mean it wasn't an inferior action when looking at the overall picture. It is the same in life, doing stupid things doesn't 100% guarentee you will suffer for it, but if you repeatedly do stupid things, you are more likely to come a cropper than if you don't do stupid things, hence why it is best for you and those around you in the long term to avoid being careless and reckless.

It's false. If you are contracting for 1NT, you are contracting for seven tricks, so can afford to lose the first six, hence not necessary to have stops in three or four suits. The problem is if you don't open 1NT, what is your rebid? When you overcall 1NT, you should have a stop or two in opener's suit, but that is a different situation.

That's not quite right, I thought the lead was coming from the other direction, I still win the opening lead in the South hand, but will have to duck a club before or after ruffing the two hearts and diamond, that should give access to the South hand via a club ruff to draw the last trump before cashing the top hearts.

There are 10 tricks off the top. Why do you need three ruffs? I would aim to ruff two hearts and a diamond in hand, then draw trumps ending in the South hand, that's 12 tricks. Win opening lead in South, ruff a heart, ♦KA, ruff a diamond, spade to South, ruff a heart (with the ace if necessary to avoid blockage), spade to South, if trumps are 2-2 or 3-1 they are drawn, cash ♥AKQ, give up a club. If the trumps are 4-0 I'll need to rethink.

Is the North hand suitable for a fit jump? If so, South then knows all the HCP are working with a double fit and controls in hearts and clubs, so can start cue bidding. I suppose my question is what is the minimum strength hand for a fit jump?

If partner can't bid over 3♣ after telling you the hand is a stonking misfit, that is probably the limit of the hand.

Problem is your hand only has slam potential if you have a fit with partner. If partner is stacked in diamonds and spades (which is most likely), you might not make game, never mind slam. It comes down to listening to the auction. If the opponents haven't come in with diamonds or spades after two opportunities each, it is probably because partner has them. If it's a misfit, quit.

Narcissism?

Not surprising to me. The result on any table can frequently depend on the pairs involved. If West is a fully paid up member of the I-will-not-defend club, they will make an awful 2♣ overcall. More sensible players will pass.

4♣ only makes sense to me as a cue bid agreeing spades, slam interest, although I would expect a stronger hand for this. It soesn't make sense for it to be natural, a hand that can self support its minor suit, bypassing 3NT and inviting slam investigation opposite what could be a six count with no support should have opened their hand their system the equivalent of an Acol 2♣.

I doubt it. I'd overcall 1♠ on the East hand in the passout seat. Then when South reverses into hearts, West raises to 2 or 3♠.

The chances of it getting passed out given your shape are extremely small. Someone has the spades, and there are 20 HCP divided between the three other hands. More of an issue is playing catchup throughout the auction, as partner is never playing you for a two loser hand.

It wasn't deleted at the time I quoted it, so I may well choose to respond to it. How am I supposed to know that you are going to delete a post I may decide to respond too and quote, and why should I care? If you are in doubt about whether you should post something, don't, but don't complain if you choose to post something on a public forum and someone then decides to quote and respond to it. That is what happens on forums like this. I'm not stirring up any trouble, it is you that is throwing out an antagonistic attitude like you have a chip on your shoulder. Don't try and project your attitude onto me. If you've had problems with other people, maybe it is you that is the problem, in my experience people who whinge about how bad other people are, are their own worst enemy.