AL78

Duck the first trick, win the second assuming a club continuation (I can't tell whether ducking or winning immediately makes any difference). Play a spade to the ace and run the ♦9. If it is covered by the jack, cover with the queen, and assuming it loses, next time I'm in lead a diamond to the ten and hope the outstanding honor is onside (West might have led a top diamond holding AK). If the diamond nine loses to the A or K offside, next time I am in I can lead another diamond to the QT and set up a diamond winner. If neither of those come to pass, draw trumps and cash the top hearts hoping the jack falls. Have to be careful to keep the spade queen in dummy to provide an entry to the diamond winner if I manage to set one up.

I'd think it was some extreme two suiter like 7-5 shape.

To be honest, my gut feeling was partner held something like that, but I would have bid 3♠ and prepared to bid 4♥ next time, followed by apologies when it blew up in my face. It is basically an educated guess and if you get it right, you win, get it wrong, you are battered. I'm never a fan of hands like these although at my level, I'll accept that what looks like a guess in at least some cases probably isn't.

The question is, what would partner do over a 3♠ bid? It appear to me it is a guess as to whether partner has a fit in one of the majors or is stacked in clubs and diamonds. I'm tempted to bid 3♠ and if partner goes back to diamonds, bid 4♥. It will either work beautifully or be a train wreck. Is it IMPS or MP? The argument for treating it as a misfit is that if partner did have three of a major, the opponents likely have ten clubs and half the HCP between them and couldn't find a bid, which makes it slightly more likely partner has three or four clubs.

That cannot be the best line even if you are correct and West holds the queen. If East only holds a singleton which is where finessing works and trying to drop doesn't, they will hold at least three cards in one of the black suits and the necessary squeeze will not work. You have to ignore the possibility of ♦QXX with West because you are going down on that layout. The important holdings are whether East holds XX, QX or QXX assuming West follows on the first round (you have to play East for at least two diamonds), and I'm guessing the pre-empt makes it more likely East holds two rather than three diamonds, so the correct line is try and drop the queen.

So the squeeze is on and it comes down to first picking up the diamond queen. Playing small to the king and small back picks up Qx on the actual layout, but what happens if East follows small on the second round. Play him for Qxx or xx? I guess the principle of vacant spaces favours playing the ace, dropping the queen in West's hand.

The only thing I can think of is a black suit squeeze. That needs West to be guarding both black suits. For that to happen, East has to have no more than a doubleton spade and a doubleton club. The question is how to play the diamonds for no losers. What hearts were played on the first two tricks? If East is marked with ♥AKQ they probably won't have ♦Qx(x) otherwise they may have opened 1♥. In the absence of other information I don't know whether it is best to play East for 2722 or 2731 shape, but if I can pick the ♦Q up, I'd run the diamonds and hope West is forced to give up a black suit guard.

In which case I would call that unlucky. Most pairs would judge no trump losers with a ten card fit missing the queen, which is why when it comes to showing or denying the trump queen, players will say they have it if they don't but know the fit is 10+ cards. It is like the slam I once bid after a pre-empt which no-one else found and only went off because of a Lightner double and the diamonds being 6-0 (diamonds being my first bid suit).

Looks unlucky to me. At the time you place the contract you know there are 10 tricks off the top and East is marked with almost all the remaining HCP so the spade finesse will almost certainly work, which brings you up to 11 tricks. A couple of diamond ruffs get you to 13 tricks, or one ruff and a six card heart suit in declarer's hand. The only negative information is the club void which implies the hand fit is not optimal. What happened? Did partner have a 5-5 or 6-5 red suit shape and bid 4H on that basis rather than HCP, and they couldn't quite bring it in?

In the dim and distant past I have recognised deals that have been played before due to a mistake in the pre-dealing, although it took me two or three hands before I realised I recognised them. I can sometimes recall mine and my partner's hand if we are defending but I cannot recall all four hands, unless it is a real standout deal. Since the adoption of dealing machines and online results with hands, there is no need to do this, so I have never trained myself. Generally what sticks in my mind is the overall statistical property of the hands from a session, such as defending a lot, being on lead a lot, or if myself or partner declare a lot relative to the other. There was one a week ago where partner opened, RHO doubled, LHO bid 2♦ (I don't think I responded as I had a near bust), then RHO bid 2♠ and played there, making +140 for a bad score our way. At the time I couldn't understand why we got a bad score as I couldn't see where we had blown a defensive trick. I would have liked to have writen down the deal and studied it more closely, and maybe post it here as a problem. The one thing that stuck in my mind was RHO held a four card spade suit, dummy came down with three of them, and from recollection they broke 3-3.

I'd bid 2♣, I have six of them, and if I bid 1NT and play there, it will be a struggle to generate club tricks barring excellent support before the opps get spades or diamonds going. I will likely make more club tricks if they are trumps.

I was calculating the best MP score that NS could get given double dummy play both ways on every board. Thus if EW have a vulnerable grand on and the best NS can do is sacrifice for -1400, that is the comparison with the rest of the field, which will be a bottom when no-one else is finding the grand. Another analysis is to do what I think you thought I was trying to do, which is take a NS player, given what happened at their table, work out what is the best double dummy score they could get.

I've just had a quick go with one recent session and compared the best double dummy NS result with the other pairs, and this double dummy player would have finished with a little under 47%. The two EW grand slams available which no-one else is bidding, and the EW game on a 4-3 fit which makes because trumps break 3-3 and again, no-one is finding, are some of the boards which really harm the double dummy score.

I'm a bit sceptical of the application of double dummy simulations, but I don't dismiss them entirely, I'm just careful not to take them too literally. For example, don't use them to give partner an ear bashing. As for their apparent alignment with real time results, I'd be very interested to test that myself using my primary club. There have been times when the double dummy result would have been well below average but I don't know what would happen if I looked at a large number of hands. I might try it out and see over a number of sessions, if a theoretical NS and EW pair got the best double dummy result possible, what would their final score be.

Do these simulations assume double dummy defence so no-one ever blows a trick leading into the strong hand?

Thanks to the digital age I have got out of the habit. I sometimes come across interesting hands that I mean to write down at the end of the session, then forget to do it. This club is looking into getting a dealing machine. The hands most likely to stick in my mind are when I'm declaring and so I see two hands for an extended time.

I'm used to playing 3♠ as showing five spades and four hearts, although I can't rememeber it ever coming up in the last decade, so using it en-route to investigating a minor suit slam sounds reasonable.

It should be noted that the 25 HCP requirement is a little optimistic when there is a huge disparity in the strengths of the two hands (e.g. flat 22 opposite flat 3), since communication with dummy will likely be an issue, so nudging this up to 26 is probably wise.

I can't remember. Unfortunately this club still uses human dealt hands, so unless I write down the full deal during or after play, I won't recall the full layout.

I think there has to be some way of saying "I have nothing extra to show" such as holding a 1534 or 2524 minimum without a diamond stop. I play 2♥ as could be this hand.

Two different responses, neither of which I did. I passed and went for the magic MP score of +200. If it weren't for some careless defence it would have worked.

This doesn't surprise me at all. Last week my RHO doubled then bid a new suit at the two level with only four of them. They make +140 for a near top, dummy has three card support and they break 3-3.

Club support, slam interest.

MPs, NS vuln, 5CM, strong NT. [hv=pc=n&e=sj4hkjt63d9743ck5&d=w&v=n&b=12&a=1d2s(Weak)d3sdp]133|200[/hv] 1♦ guarentees 4+. What do you think the second double shows and what do you do here?

Bidding looks fine to me. It goes off on double dummy defence which is not easy to find at the table. It is difficult for North to come in over 4♠ with a mediocre two suiter and no knowledge of the fantastic double fits both ways.