pilowsky

1. Biden's point is one that I also made in an earlier discussion when I pointed out that statistics don't cure people. Although the two RNA products are packaged differently, cold chain logistics is still a problem. Antibodies will survive for days at room temperature - proteins are very hardy. DNA is also pretty tough as any follower of crime drams knows. RNA is a different ball of fish. Leave it out of the fridge and the magic disappears. The stuff can get all the way from source to sink but if the people at the other end leave it out for very long then it will not work. Not all medical practitioners are careful or have a solid grounding in how this completely new technology works. 2. I stand corrected re modeRNA - I meant the original creators of the method e.g. BBC, NYT - it is this couple that actually came up with the idea. Time magazine put all sorts of people on their front page. Famously Hitler and Stalin, and modally Nixon (55 times) - source Wikipedia - Time doesn't award prizes in science, it sells magazines. Let's wait and see who gets acknowledged for the work. My bet is that history will thank Ugur Sahin and Özlem Türeci and not the manufacturers and distributors. 3. It will not be time that tells. The stability of mRNA is a matter of scientific knowledge. I have worked inter alia with both phosphorothioate DNA and mRNA silencing techniques and published reviews on the topic. 4. True - I have known other people that disagree with and comment on absolutely everything even when they are not experts on the topic. The right to comment is not an obligation - even in the Water Cooler but I suppose it is fun for some. Sometimes ill-informed comments or poorly chosen words have serious real-world consequences and lead to bad outcomes - people have died from consuming bleach. In the peer-reviewed world (mentioned elsewhere) scientists - presumably in order to gain more 'likes' (or citations as they call them - preface their work with phrases along the lines of "the novel coronavirus accesses the cell via the angiotensin receptor, this may mean that taking ARB's could worsen COVID19...etc". I personally have had to prevent this happening twice this last year. Ill-informed people might stop taking their ARB's and other effective anti-hypertensive medication. Imagine what would happen if a really influential person such as Trump were to 'retweet' (cite) stuff like this. I'm sure Barry is busy with other things like making sure that BBO works well and the robots become more (or less) devious. But, of course, people sometimes just say what they like - not much anyone else can do about it except call it out when it's a danger to themselves or others. I try not to disagree - just learn. When you work in science you learn that anything that you say or think will turn out to be wrong tomorrow. People that fall in love with their ideas and promote them even when new knowledge contradicts them are on a hiding to nothing.

I agree, on the other hand, Biden complained today that the rollout was too slow because of insufficient vaccine availability. An important distinction to understand regarding the Moderna vaccine is that it is not a 'vaccine' in the usual sense. I suppose the name is a giveaway - it's a portmanteau of 'mode' and 'rna' - works by using RNA - nothing to do with being modern. Instead, a small piece of viral genetic code (mRNA) is injected. This code is then taken up by host cells which start producing the small bit of viral protein (from the binding region of the virus that enables the virus to get into the cell). The host cells excrete the foreign protein creating a pseudo-autoimmune response. Our cells making a bit of foreign protein provokes an immune response. This brilliant idea is completely new - thanks to two Turkish (Moslem) immigrants working in Germany. It had never been used in humans which is why the infrastructure was so deficient. The big advantage is that the whole process occurs 'in silico'. What is needed until the moment of injection is chemistry not biology (we do that part). The big negative is that the product must be kept at temperatures that render the approach useless for the rest of the world. Obviously, this is not good since infected individuals elsewhere continue to get infected. The virus is a world problem (like the climate) - saving America doesn't help in the long term and its incredibly expensive. The other - more usual - vaccine presents the body with the actual antigen(that's the name of the bit of virus protein that antibodies detect) and we then make the antibodies from that Australia is famous for its work on vaccines and blood products amongst other things. Anyway, the great thing about the usual vaccine is that it can be kept at normal freezer temperature in the doctor's office. The Regeneron antibodies are completely different. What makes them so clever is that first, they get a mouse to make antibodies then they take the mouse spleen and isolate the antibody making cells which they fuse to a cancer cell line and voila an immortal cell line that produces vast amounts of antibody to give to Donald and Rudy and anyone else that can afford them. The real breakthrough that made Regeneron successful is that they found a way to make the mice produce antibodies that look exactly like human antibody protein. If you just gave someone regular monoclonal antibodies really bad things would happen. And then along came the third (after SARS and MERS) virus - actually called SARS-Cov-2. When I went to get a test back in April (I had a regular sort of cold as it turned out) the report came back negative for sars-cov-2 making wonder if they had done a coronavirus test! At that time there were only 2 places to get tested in Sydney and no queues. I warned the Bridge clubs to shut but was ignored because "what would I know" and some of them just wanted to stay in business. Some of them were/are managed by self-confessed Trump supporters. I will not name names. In summary, the RNA vaccine is a great stop-gap, but the population will not become immune at a level that will achieve population immunity until the regular vaccine is rolled out in large amounts. This is a very low-key explanation of how the different methods work. I can go into a lot more detail, but it is a Bridge forum. For example, the virus gains entry by binding to a protein involved in the renin-angiotensin system - something that I have worked on and published extensively about. That's why I had to give up on Bridge and chess when I was 17 - my mother said "Paul, you can do anything you want as soon as you finish medicine." - I actually wanted to be a film director. That's what my younger sister does.

My point exactly. Apparently - according to the other Cohen (not Larry) - Trump could have invoked the defence production act and had much more vaccine made available - but oh no, don't want to interfere with the invisible hand.

According to Larry, the rule is: Note: Before August, 2016, some ACBL clubs disallowed 1NT openings with a singleton. Now, the rule states exactly: "A notrump opening or overcall is natural if, by agreement, it contains no void, at most one singleton which must be the A, K or Q and no more than two doubletons. If the hand contains a singleton, it may have no doubleton." This does not apply in Australia where I was asked to alert it as x-y HCP any shape. No-one bats an eye then, since it is similar to 1♣ where 1♣ is part of any strong system.

Do you read the threads before you comment or do you just like to flame and troll people? I'm finding it hard to tell. You do understand that Merkel has a PhD in science (Chemistry/Physics) right. Please explain what your comment has to do with the original point. Clearly, the German experience of having a person that understands rational thinking during the COVID crisis has proven useful. Don't forget that the first vaccine was invented because of the work of Turkish immigrants to Germany. In complete contrast to "Operation warp whatever" where they are happy about lorry's and can't even get that right. In WW2 when Florey and Chain discovered and produced penicillin (I knew one of the people through whose urine the first batch was purified), the Americans stole the IP. Florey then had to make sure that Oxford patented the next -cillin. Yet another example of useless British governance. The number of British comedies based on the incompetence of the British civil service and government is legendary. Parkinson's law, Yes minister, etc etc.

I'm looking for an expert long-term partner also, but with my level of skill, it's going to be a very long wait. Good luck.

Note by the way that I did not say that I necessarily wanted STEM as a prerequisite for being President/PM or Chancellor. What I said was 'running the show'. The reasonable meaning of that is "let the people that are experts do the things they are expert at without interference" - the opposite of which is happening in the United States of let's grab as much money from everyone else and the others can starve. Hopefully, that culture will improve on Jan. 20 2021. Apart from that little clarification, your concerns are, of course, yours.

Angela Merkel seems to know what she's doing. Boris Johnson doesn't.

"I read about something that someone else is saying on another forum" Is exactly where baseless conspiracy theories come from. Is Sydney Powell defending the person? Does Hugo Chavez own Twitch? Just asking.

Trump not being President will not make more than 70,000,000 people suddenly believe in the virtue of rational thought. No matter how wonderful Harris and Biden are. I don't want leaders with their hearts in the right place. I want people that know what they're doing and have a background in STEM running the show. Not Scotty from marketing/Slomo or Trump. A wet bag of wilted lettuce would do a better job than Trump, but will this instantly cause an outbreak of thinking? This is where greed gets you. Give me liberty or give me death - but oh no, 70+ million had to have it all - now we have liberty and death. Excellent.

Right so just adding 1 and 1 and getting 4 again. Most people like to have all the facts before grabbing a lightsabre and swinging into action. Well, consistency is some sort of virtue I suppose.

Suit combinations (from Wikipedia) and probabilities are hard to memorise. Simple rules such as 'odds break even and evens break odd' are helpful when there are only a few cards to worry about. While walking the poodles this morning I met a local maths teacher friend, and I mentioned that "when I was at school" we used logbooks. "Oh yes, we use them to record hours on the road when the kids are learning to drive," he said. I wondered if Logs would be useful in remembering probabilities for suit combinations. A helpful rule of thumb for log scales is that to make something linear if it changes logarithmically, you plot the data on a 0,1,3,5,10 scale to achieve a straight line. Below is what happens when I plot the individual probabilities for suit combinations on a log scale. In practice, this reminds one that the likelihood of seeing the worst possible break is roughly ten times smaller than seeing an equal break. Except of course, when it's me - I always get the bad breaks - nothing to do with my card play. As you can see, the probability of an 8/0 split with 8 cards out is about 10 times less than seeing the most usual splits 5/3 or 4/4. The rows correspond to the splits for (from top to bottom) 8,7,6 and 5 cards out. 0,1,2,3,4 follow the same pattern. If instead, you would like to see a video about suits (with music) - it has dancing and a happy ending too. http://i.imgur.com/32OHlpF.png

Really? well, provide a link then.

Trump did not appear, as if by magic, out of a vacuum. Only about 1/3 of people in America that had the capacity to vote voted for him. Another third voted for Biden, and the rest couldn't be bothered. We have the same problem in Australia. Also, many people that are equally capable of understanding the political situation are disenfranchised either because of age, prior convictions, or because they aren't allowed to vote even though they live there and must suffer the consequences of others decisions (a very odd state of affairs in a country whose existence is premised on the idea of 'no taxation without representation'). This raises the question: would the reaction amongst the American people to the current pandemic (the primary reason that Trump lost - and I'm no fan) have been any different had Obama or Biden been President? The rights-based individualistic attitude where "you can't tell me what to do" would still be there. The pandemic would still rage, the economy would still tank. We'll all have to wait and see now. When America roars, the whole world is affected - for good or bad.

Just played in a 'Cards for a Cause' game. I do like the idea that (generally) well off Bridge players support charity. My worry is that having had a lot to do with medical research charity it is worthwhile checking what the money is spent on. The link in the announcement to Alzheimer's was broken, but I think they mean the Alzheimer's Association based in the USA. Here is what I gleaned from their annual report "Total revenue in FY2020 was USD409,478.000. Research is only the 3rd mentioned activity. In 2020 they spent USD82,909,000 on research - 20.24%." An Australian meat pie must contain at least 25% meat. USD108,419,000 was spent on 'concern and awareness'. Concern and awareness included a special report that discovered that Doctors diagnose Alzheimer's." Here is a link to the report. I have seen much worse in other charities. It is also impossible to work out from the report what reviewing mechanism is used before the funds are distributed. The (medical research) charities that I like to support are the ones where the funds are distributed after peer-review in a competitive grant process. In Australia, some charities use the annual NHMRC (like the NIH and the equivalent in other countries) to vet the grants as part of the annual review process. Ranked grants are then funded if they are considered scientifically worthwhile AND come within the area of charity. This process ensures fairness and prevents small cliques from funding their 'pet projects'. I also prefer charities where 'research' is the first-named goal (but that's just me. Charities objectives are similar to food-labels. The first objective (ingredient) is the largest component of the charities expenditure. If research is not in the top two and the expenditure profile does not match, I look elsewhere. Obviously, other people have different priorities. It may have no effect on your choice of tournament, but I think it is worth bearing in mind.

addendum: of course the East robot on the teaching table may be in need of a tranquillizer: https://tinyurl.com/y8tgb2vn

I spent a few moments watching another very enjoyable Paula White (spiritual advisor to POTUS) youtube video. During her 'remarks' she commented that - and I quote from the subtitles - "I thought politics was for the big guys up there. Or the real smart ones.". Apparently, she now realises that she was wrong. Anybody can be President. I imagine it's the equivalent of sending me to represent Australia at the Olympic marathon - or the Bermuda bowl. The result would be similar.

Always hard to know what the robots are going to do. I gave it to the ones on the Prime teaching table and after doubling got this auction. After causing the damage I left it to the robots to fight out - South did very nicely. Unsurprisingly, passing - which South did when left to its own devices - was a really bad idea. Strangely, the teaching table robot (East anyway) seems to be a little more excitable than your robots (unless you have changed the names to protect the innocent ). After reproducing your auction, East still doubled. Not a very good teacher! I suspect the lesson is that - - not all GIB's are the same.

The best thing about Bridge is that you can socialise your losses and keep the wins for yourself: http://i.imgur.com/5kq0uXu.png?1

Interestingly in SImon's book it says: I'm pretty sure there are other reasons why I always lose.

Without interference, 2♠ would be a strong jump shift. I just happened to have a hand on the teaching table where North opened 1♣ with 4♠ and I forced East to bid 1♦. If I bid 2♠, South 'thinks' I have "free bid -- 6+♠; 13+ total points" and responded 3♠ "raise responder's response -- 3+ ♣; 2+♠; 11+ HCP; 12-15 total points. North actually had: SAQ85, HKQ82, no diamonds and CT8765. Maybe you could call the Director?

Dear Kjpod I've given your question a considerable amount of thought. It's a question that comes up quite frequently in Bridge. Usually in the form: "You made a mistake, you owe me a dollar" I never make mistakes, so this is never a problem for me, but I can see how you might be upset. I suggest that you approach a friendly lawyer - Sydney Powell is looking for work I believe. They can draft a sort of pre-nuptial for your partners to sign. Perhaps it could include a sliding scale of financial penalties based on tricks or IMP's lost. Best wishes, Richard Willey

Only people with little minds...

In a substantively supercilious slew of senselessness, Pilowsky rolls out a misclick on the way back from collecting his Lebanese takeaway. Instead of bidding 2♣ he misclicks and bids 2♦. His smug self-satisfied amanuensis sitting North temples his palps momentarily then bids 3♦. Pilowsky bids 6♠ "1-4♣; 6+ ♦; 3 ♠; 10- HCP; 7+ total points; likely stop in ♠" Will this get the November award for the silliest slam. and the ♦4 is led.[hv=pc=n&s=sakq852h876dkcak9&w=s943hjdq8742cq873&n=s6hakq95dt96cj652&e=sjt7ht432daj53ct4&d=e&v=n&b=2&a=p2d(oops%20misclick)p3d(The%20Law%20-%209%20Trump%20-%3E...)p6s(%3A%5D)pp(simulates)p]399|300[/hv] Completely undeserved. 4 people made 4S+2. They got a ♥J lead. Funnily enough, I also bought a copy of Bird & Anthias' books on leads on the way home, and this are exactly the leads that they advise (4♠ vs 6♠). Which is good to know, since it's also the substrate for GIB's lead choices according to the system notes.

|What's a yahoo|? [__]