thepossum

Possum Sim (Beginner Edition 0.1) ranks Diamond Spade Club Heart :) Note Possum Sim Pro has not yet hit the market

Sorry deleted since I had errors in my sim Sorry all :) Just lead 4th highest heart or club :) Although sim did seem to suggest 2/10 of S was best chance of a top

Dear all This thread was intended to be a discussion about how to play Moysian fits as a resource for other people playing them. Those earlier in the thread took it that way and provided useful general advice on how to approach them. I posted a hand as an example. I simply post example hands I have played, mostly with GiB. That was not an invitation for certain people to think that 1) I needed their personal advice/criticism on that hand; 2) that this thread or any of my threads are asking for personal help 3) that it is invitation to attack GiB's play etc. All my threads are intended to provide starting points for discussion about concepts in Bridge. I do not need to improve my bridge any more. I'm actually very happy with my level of bidding and play as my results show if any of you ever cared to look. So please in future follow the example of those earlier in the thread and treat threads as discussion points in concepts and situations in bridge and not as an excuse for some gratuitious advice/criticism or the need to try to put down the play of any individual player. If you choose to criticise me for this hand then please go and criticise the other 20 or so players who ended up in 3NT (-1 or -2). Or with the 5S Moysian hand I had to play in a recent ACBL IMP tourney (through no fault of my bidding) maybe go and criticise all those good/advanced/expert players who ended up having to play a Moysian 6S-1 (through no fault of their own or their bidding). The thread was about how to play them once you are in them. We all have to deal with problematic contracts when partner bids with only 3 trumps and you think they have 4. Thanks to those who provided useful information and discussion on Moysian fits. I would appreciate any and all future discussion on any of the threads I post to be given in a totally non personal way. It is not about me or my play. The threads aree about bridge and issues in bridge that maybe some beginner/novice readers of these forums could learn from. regards P

Hi everyone Thanks for the comments. Here were the hands and the auction. They were rather strange NS hands and people ended up in a strange mix of contracts. Most were in 3NT (generally -1 or more), some in 4H (down 1 although in theory it can make DD), some in a disastrous 4S etc. 4 clubs would have been reasonable contract but maybe GiB was hoping for game, and as I said it does make DD. I think bidding 2S with 5 small is rather questionnable. GiB certainly doesnt like minors I was definitely relieved to get out with 4-1 and a small positive. trump break was good, diamond break was good (from auction) club King and diamond Q finesse worked and chance of a few cross ruffs etc. I wasnt sure on strategy but mainly tackled the side suits first. Small diamond was led. Maybe a trump would cause more problems, although DD suggests spade attack by defence is best. Any tips on strategy. I finessed the diamond Queen, cashed Ace, finessed the club King, cashed Ace, delayed drawing trumps and went on from there and somehow did ok with a few long clubs. Note I also ended up in a 5H (slam try) Moysian last night which I made on pure hand strength. How we managed to get into a slam try with only 7??? P [hv=pc=n&s=s2hat54dk9caqt943&w=skthk63dqt843cj65&n=s76543hq98daj2c87&e=saqj98hj72d765ck2&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=pp1c1d1s2c2hp2sd3cp4hppp]399|300[/hv]

Hi all I havent played that many Moysian fits, although playing with GiB the frequncy has increased in my bridge (due to its aversion to minors) and I'm having to learn how to approach those hands differently. In the past I would have expected to be more likely in no trumps I recently played one, 4H, in an IMP tourney. Theortetically in double dummy analysis it did make. However almost nobody made either the 4H or the more common;y bid 3NT game and it scored a small positive IMP score I imagine the probabilities are fairly low for success - all else (eg HCPs) being equal - against 4-4 or 5-3 fits. Does anyone know the chances, and does the 3NT usually do better. In the hand I just played 3NT fared no better regards P

Dear all I'm sure we all have our preconceptions about bridge players and personality types attracted to the game (after all we are bridge players ourselves); and also the more problematic aspects (shall we say) of those personality types. After all most of us either experience or have perpetuated some of those behaviours during the game at one stage or another. I would be very interested in any serious research on this matter. I have read on other sites, some rather uninformed (and unreferenced) opinion about the matter of problem personalities in bridge, and also people who listen to and add to that uninformed opinion. It has been dressed up as expertise and uses the "authority" of the author to lend it some validity, despite being unreferenced. In fact I would go so far as to conjecture that one of the problem behaviours many of us (myself sometime) have as bridge players as being very keen to dish out expert advice when we are not experts. The game seems to develop a certain group of "authorities" who then are able to perpetuate uninformed opinion. I know this is not unique to bridge, sadly it occurs throughout society, and the internet has enabled this more and more. Following on from that I would be very interested in any genuine research on personality in bridge, either from the positive aspect, or the types of personalities, the aspects of different types of people and brains that are attracted to the game, or are successful at the game. I would of course also be interested in the less positive personality aspects, as someone trained in and who has worked in fields involving psychological or personality disorders. Please only post with genuine informed views on the matter, unlike certain other bridge forums :) regards P

Hi all I know DD is central to a huge amount of computational bridge, and also analysis of human bridge performance. Many people also know that it is extremely limited in true analysis of hand potential scores and contracts and should be used with caution. It concerns me that it seems so integral to much research, analysis and development and that seemingly many people are unaware of the limitations. I have been testing out many of the products/tools on the market, some better than others in how they handle these limitations. However it does concern me when major products come up with totally ridiculous par scores and contracts that no two partnerships (of any level) would ever reach. What is the point of a piece of software saying that you missed a totally and unfeasible par score. And it doen't just concern me in Bridge. There are many more "serious" areas of life and work where the kinds of people who do DD analysis are determining critical things in people's lives, how to fly aeroplanes, drive cars, whether people are entitled to government benefits, insurance, trading with our pension funds, predicting health care, involvement in all areas of government policy, healthcare, economics, finance etc. Very dangerous indeed. And please note, I dont necessarily mean the people who build the stuff and know all the limitations; its the less informed people who use hi-tech products/analysis in all areas of our lives who do not understand limitations, who work in organisations where technical limitations are ignored or silenced etc etc PS I'm not trying to donwplay the seriousness and importance of Bridge :) regards P

Thx Stephen

Yes, 4S would have been a good option, or I should try showing AK cues to cover one or the other (although 4D could be risky if North uses Blackwood). Maybe North would then have started RKCB They were possibly in a better place than me to assess slam but still had two possible diamond losers Note usually I would take 3S as a natural forcing bid but from the GiB alert I couldnt really infer anything about distribution other than 4+ hearts [hv=pc=n&s=saq2hkq42dkjt5cq3&n=s4ha875dq76cakj75]133|200[/hv]

Hi Stephen Thx. The problem was bidding the cues under GiB's system. Cue bids would have been Aces not kings :( There was a reason I couldnt investigate with cues P

Hi Stephen I'm still unsure. I understand maybe what you say (and the document) relates to pure IMP scoring comparing two teams. But at cross IMPs surely the scores depend on the number of tables which bid the game vs the slam which in turn relates to how the field assesses the hand which in turn relates to the quality of the field. I understand the difference between the top and the bottom on any particular hand relates to the pure IMPs but in an overall tournament sense its more complex and depends on how the rest of the field goes. Maybe I dont fully understand how it works. But if a smaller percentage bids and makes then your negative score in relation to the field is less than if a large percentage makes it. Does all maths behind it simplify to 50% irrespective of the quality of the field? I need to study it more But clearly Bob Hamman knows the correct strategy in bidding slams :) regards P PS Here is my hand and the bidding. I was somewhat unsure what GiBs 3S alerted bid meant other than a force in hearts. Its not the Stayman followup I am used to but I did know it was enough to investigate slam. I was not able to ascertain position of Kings which is why I stopped [hv=pc=n&s=saq2hkq42dkjt5cq3&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1n(15-17)p2c(Stayman)p2hp3s(Forcing%20H%20raise%2015%2B%20pts)p4n(RKCB)p5h(2%20keycards)ppp]133|200[/hv] Note. Edited to fix the 3S bid. Thx Stephen :)

Thanks Stephen I'm very curious about it since so many players didnt even investigate slam, a few who did investigate (including myself) stopped in 5, but most who investigated did go to slam. Note we did have the Queen of trumps and I usually go to slam missing only 1 key card but not the Queen. I must have imagined a problem somewhere Maybe I saw a risk in the hand that wasnt there. Just by way of possibly irrelevant information I looked at the stated expertise of players and their BBO masterpoints. There was no significant difference on mean masterpoints, no real difference in median masterpoints, ie those who bid slam did have more masterpoints on average. There was some evidence of difference between number of players in Expert, Advanced, Inteermediate categories, with Advanced and Intermediate twice as likely to stop in game and experts about 50:50 I'm very curious about all this. Clearly on the expected IMPs from my example the 50% you cite seems correct to balance up the chance of positive score. However I am also interested in how it relates to the quality of the field etc. Normally I'm more of a risk taker than this but I must have seen something at the time :) P Note. Everything I'm testing is underpowered and probably has errors since there clearly seem to be differences that dont show statisticaly yet :) I need more data and adjustments. Still honing my approach. This is just one hand and 42 tables

Hi all I asked a similar question recently about strategy at MPs between staying in game and bidding slam. Here is a similar scenario which occurred recently in a small IMP tourney I will post the hand in a little while but a crude post hoc simulation of the scenario has suggested to me that the probability of the major slam is of the order 60% and game was near certainty (eg >98.5%). Assuming I could work that out in my head how do I then make the decision in an average field of how to proceed. Is 60% reasonable or not You estimate that p% of the field will bid slam and (1-p)% will bid and make game You decide (without the probability) after a keycard ask, and a few concerns about 1 missing keycard, and too many losers in your hand to stop in 5. Note it was likely to be a 4-4 H fit and hands were fairly flat with possible spade shortage in North and both hands roughly in 14-16 range, your is 17 :) EDIT It was south who investigate the slam with Blackwood and made the call in most cases The hand is played and you score -5 IMPs. Those who bid and made slam scored 9 IMPs. Both sides vulnerable. Ignoring two outliers who bid and made a different (minor) slam P was around 1/3 and Q around 2/3. 100% of people made 12 tricks! Ratio 13:2:28 What are the considerations at IMPs. I nearly went for it but didnt. Hand will be posted soon regards P

Thanks everyone P

Hi I'm no expert and will wait for more expert players to comment. I think personally I would base the decision on the strength of my hand. Enough for a reverse I would bid C and reverse into diamonds, otherwise bid diamonds first. However as you say there does not seem to be universal agreement on which minors to bid first with 44 or 45 (or even 33 sometimes). Some people always bid the 4 diamonds, some always bid the longer etc. Were you thinking about strong NT hands or different point counts I believe either would be quite legitimate under most systems (except big club systems of course :) ), since 1D usually indicates 4 D and 1C can have any number from 3 upwards and doesnt necessarily deny 4D (it usually does). ALthough in Acol I think 1C would be preferred In fact, thinking about my comment on strength of hand I think the decision should be based on what your second bid would be :) I would also be interested in advanced/expert player comments :) P

Thx Gordon regards P

Thanks everyone :) I did bid 2D and we landed in 6NT for just 57.1% There was an overtrick available if you could get a diamond lead and there was a grand available in H but I don't know how certain it was Here are N and S Not sure if my bidding is correct, and if I could have explored the heart grand better or gone for 7H after 6H. Top two scores were 6NT+1 (diamond lead) and 6H+1 regards P [hv=pc=n&s=sak2ht6dakj73caqj&n=sjhakqj42d96c9876&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=p1hp2dp2hp4np5sp5np6hp6nppp]266|200[/hv]

Hi all Recent hand in small MP tourney. I wasn't sure on my best strategy at first bid. Go straight for a no trump slam (via Blackwood to check controls) without showing any other suits or bid a 2/1 to check shape of partners hand and then go for slam. Also whether NT or H how to explore best chance of an overtrick if available. Also the lead considerations with a hope for a minor lead into diamonds or clubs :) I figured with 22 points opposite 11+ that was essentially enough for a quantitative 6NT, since partner (GiB) is not known for opening light. However I still wanted to explore further for the correct slam and possible 7? How would you approach this? 4NT, 2D, 6NT, something else? regards P [hv=pc=n&s=sak2ht6dakj73caqj&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=p1hp]133|200[/hv]

Looks quite a reasonable option over 1H. Unfortunately GiB selected 2D for those who bid 1H. However it does seem a good way to get to explore the options P

Hi Etha Thx for the advice I have Wbridge, havent yet invested in Jack. Not familiar with Qplus. Is there any documentation with the software on how to use it across the internet. I can set up firewall stuff at my end but I think it would be a challenge talking my friend through it from 10,000 miles away, and I dont know if I could set up a virtual desktop arrangement on his PC to manage stuff :( Getting a browser upgrade so bridgebase works was quite a challenge in itself. Hoping Fun Bridge will come to the party Seems that much of the bridge stuff is still in the 90s with a reasonably high level of computer and netowrk knowledge :) regards P

Here were the two hands As you say the main problem was (1) that I was not able to get North to show a preference for clubs (maybe due to my bidding incorrectly), (2) Ace diamonds was rather wasted, (3) I could not find out about Kxx clubs, (4) did not know there was a void in hearts etc etc. Maybe the probabilities are not good for this and its too hard to bid well but it seems to be a very good chance of small slam. The person who bid to the club slam went 2C-2D-2H-3D-4C-4D-4H-6C - so North finally jumped to the small club slam I went astray after 4D trying to get controls and took a punt on 6H :) P [hv=pc=n&s=sahaqt643dcaqt764&n=sj762hdaj6432ck85]133|200[/hv]

Hi Hope people don't mind me adding a post, but its more a case of me trying to understand sims and how my results compare, since I'm fairly new to bridge sims I did a basic sim (using bdeal) with N semi-balanced and 15-17 points and S with the given hand. No further constraints on EW or leads. After 2000 hands my percentages were: Tricks Percentage 9 1.1 10 2.7 11 15.7 12 55.6 13 20.4 Mean tricks were 11.76. Range 5-13 tricks Is bdeal what others use? regards P

Hi Liversidge Sadly there are not many options. I've been trying to do the same with a friend who plays Basic Acol. We are trying to find some compromise bids to get around the issue without upsetting GiB :) One of the best sites for choosing systems (Fun Bridge) does not allow two friends to play against the Bots in the Windows version, but I believe its possible with the App. I have been in touch with them Its a shame GiB only knows 1 system I've been in touch with the EBU and they arent aware of many alternatives for two players, playing Acol against a bot. They gave me a few links but mostly relate to Acol areas online where you play against humans Bridge Base advice Bridge Club Live The EBU also have their own Fun Bridge games but I dont think you can play a partnership against the bot Fun bridge games Hopefully Fun Bridge or someone will add it to their software given the good system choices they have, or maybe GiB can learn different systems :) Its a real shame that the function is not yet available. Would have thought it would be in demand Sorry I'm not much help P

ok thanks I'm still a bit unsure on the best way to bid it though, especially in the case of a misfit and problems trying to get North to show a preference for one of two identical suits (one major, one minor) As a few extra clues for this hand, EW did not interfere (maybe good players could) and a 1H bid was followed by 2D and 2C was followed by 2D Note the person who managed to get to the right slam did open with 2C and managed to bid the 3 and 4 level in such a way to find the fit and get a nice 100% compared to my 1 down 14 % :( regards P

Thanks Stephen In this case there was no chance of 1H being passed out although many ended up being left in game, even after very strong later bids. Is there never a risk of being left in 1H with hands like these. I know most auctions are very competitive these days so its unlikely PS I should have said I was third seat after two passes and both non-vulnerable