keylime

I strongly, strongly, strongly, prefer a natural, FORCING 2♥ here. You hand is a delay support hand and you need to see where pard lives. Once they rebid 2NT to show a club stop, you still need to make sure that they didn't rebid 2NT on the 18-19 hand type. Now trot out 3♦, following up with 4♠ once they limit themselves again with 3NT.

I like 3♣ as well. We have a pretty soft holding in the majors and will need a lot of help there to make 3NT.

Downgrade this hand quickly. The KC is a bad omen, and your diamond holding is in trouble potentially. Pard is not going to have 2 trump honors, a working diamond honor, club shortage, and a heart honor enough to merit a blast. That, and well, he/she may still move on to game as well.

My view is that, since I can't take it with me, I'm not going to be that interested in taking a risk that at age 31, my life ends because of heightened greed. Even if I sorely needed the money, life is just too precious and is meant to be lived. It is too vague and non-equivalent of an argument to assert that because I'm bypassing money, that I am not being philosophically adherent when I hop on the Metro to go into work or drive the 4 hours to Pittsburgh. Greed is a recipe for bad things to happen.

At first I thought Justin was on some bad cheese or something, but now that I have read and reread his arguments, I now not certain about whether to lay low or to smack 'em around like I was. For some reason I keep feeling that this is a Lauria-Versace type of a deal where they just shove to game on any notion...

Ditto Justin, so much so I've printed a copy out for discussion - it is that lucid to me.

1. You have a decent hand but no clear direction. I think you're at a 4.5 ♣ rebid. So I'm going to push on to game then. 5♣. 2. 2NT, if you have Ogust or some shortness ask available. You want to make sure that it's not a 4M-1 hand. 3. Double, takeout, good hand, can do anything pard wants, including pass on 4 trumps or more.

I confess I don't bid 1NT here, no do I double since I lack some diamonds. If anything, I would bid an offbeat 2♥ over 1NT, especially with honor-doubleton. However, I have played with folks that will bid 1NT to show some values.

Um, since I like terra firma a lot, and since I can't take it with me if I die...I choose zero boxes.

I agree with Mike's rationale in the full; so much so that I think you should just get on with it at 4♥ and hide the diamond suit. Let them find the winning defense. I have good controls, pard's opened for me (ty pard) and you know where everything is sitting by the double practically. I disagree strongly with redoubling first - I want to show my five card spade suit and I can always double to show values later, and I have clear direction in the bidding.

No, for a few reasons. 1. You do not want declarer to be double-dummying the trump suit, if dummy just happens to have the A/K of trumps. 2. You own a fiendish spade holding that might gain 2 tricks. 3. I'm leading a passive club (pard didn't double the artificial 1D response). Since you are likely ahead in the match or break even, this isn't the position to swing. You also want to make a lead that would make it sound as if things are rosy for declarer.

I agree with Justin - DR is a powerful country. So is Japan and Korea. I think Cuba is not quite as good as many think.

Loser count is about right for Leaping Michaels, but need some aces. I like 2S a lot here.

4♦. Clearcut to me. I'm highly offensive, and pard has found a call here. Pard can be on plenty of hands here so need to give them leeway.

Han, Since you play xfer responses to 1♣, with a 4M and let's say, 6♦ hand, what do you start with first?

For all the mathematical attempts at reasoning, I've yet to besides Fred's statement see anyone really assess the more valid point, which is the auction and table feel element. Bayes' theorem (which I am versed in) works only under controlled conditions - but when is bridge really an experiment with control variables and set criteria in order to derive a conclusion? If you're at the club game, you are far more likely to get this problem correct than wrong, because of the ingrained "cover an honor with an honor" mentality. Additionally, you should be able as the superior player that you are, sense if there's certain honor combinations out there (i.e. if LHO holds the AQ9, they should lead differently than holding A-9 versus Q-7). However if you are let's say at a National, then you can not necessarily follow the Zia rule (if they don't cover, they don't have it). Players of our peer group know that tip already; thusly they are more prone to duck smoothly and put you to a guess. Now, some deduction enters mathematically (especially if they have bid in the auction, now you get an inferential count of sorts on the first trump play - that and opening leads of course).

Ditto Josh - due to the unexpected meaning overtones.

My five points to help navigate the mine field: 1. Know your system. Documenting it will help greatly and help reduce errors. 2. Double aggressively. 3. Discipline, discipline, discipline. 4. Take your time. Knowing your system allows more energy to win it in the play. 5. Lastly, be prepared. Have a strong club defense, have agreements about weak NT and follow-ons, WJ2005, etc. Also, simplify any ambiguous calls in your method (i.e. specific 2 suiters, IJO's instead of WJO's, and have your runouts mirror your NT defense).

On our prealert tabs we have the following: "Normally 10-15 hcp, but frequently upgrade shapely hands with prime controls".

I play to not only keep my mind sharp, but to allow myself to be the free spirit that I am. Also, it's nice having the old ladies say.."You're such a fine young man, my grandson is your age...".

The 7th was every bit of treachery and then some. I hit a 4 iron to get it on the green that day due to the wind (it's 107 yards, I hit my 4 iron about 185-190 in normal air). The 8th was so awing I over clubbed and dumped it into the back bunker. One of the most scary bunker shots of my life there...

K. Am back. The upgrade to the 47 build is not out yet as of this posting. I changed the default O/S to XP for emulation and verified a few things. edit: I did get the 47 build and am going through it. I also changed the priority of the wineserver and the BBO executable to a minus 4 to make it a little higher up the food chain. We'll see what happens.

Phil, The fog...I remember in July being so foggy I couldn't see 150 feet while I was in Korean class at DLI. Definitely surreal. I had the joy of playing Pebble Beach during my stay in Monterey. I still to this day treasure the par I made on the 18th hole seeing the sea otters on the nearby shore. That, and the stretch of 6,7, and 8 - the 8th is Nicklaus' favorite hole from what I heard and can't fault him for that. The 18th hole is the sweeping, naturally form par 5 of roughly 540 yards if memory serves, right to left. You aim at this huge tree and try to draw it slightly to set up for the 2nd shot, which, forces you to watch the water and put it into the layup area. Oh yeah, the green, incredibly quick with a lot of subtle features. I actually liked playing Spyglass and Cypress over Pebble, and I still remember the watering hole in Pacific Grove near the Safeway too. :-)

Ubuntu 7.10 beta (about to head to final) BBO is self-terminating under heavy loads on this machine. Suspect that memory leaks are possible. Am upgrading Wine to the 47 build, and changing the linux wine statement to N to see if I gain performance.

I lived in the SFO area and in SFO for almost five years. It is a part of the world I sorely miss from time to time. Yeah, I get nostalgic. :-) Big Sur, and the ride such down from the 17/280 intersection in San Jose/Santa Clara/Cupertino, is one of the most beautiful roads to motorcycle on in the world. I have many fond memories of going into Santa Cruz down highway 17 through Los Gatos, Summit Road, and Pasatiempo Golf Course, and then heading south on highway 1 past the artichoke capital of the world (Watsonville - stop there and ask about the barbecue, it is incredible) into Seaside and Monterey, then head through the tunnel into the aquarium, the Defense Language Institute on top of the hill, and then entering 17 Mile Drive off of highway 68. Exit that back onto highway 1, and head into the foothills through Carmel Valley, turn north to rejoin 68 near Laguna Seca Raceway, and then head back into Monterrey for a breather. Rejoin Highway 1 and head south to Big Sur to finish your day. I still to this day remember me as a 18/19 year old on an 1000cc Suzuki going full tilt around some of those bends - the joys of feeling immortal. Yosemite is quite, quite special. It is a bit of a hike out (head out on 580, then down to 108 and 120 if memory serves), but, it is so worth the time spent. I'd spend a weekend if I could. However, my favorite is Sequoia Nat'l Park near Fresno just because to me, the pristine beauty is more pure and less tourist-trotten. The more I think about it, the more joy I have remembering my new Nissan 200SX-SE, tricked out, going up Highways 4, 89 (especially 89 - towards the northern end of the highway is Lassen National Volcanic Park, a solemn place for me), and 88 going up and down and around the peaks in spring and fall. I have so many memories and I am saddened that I probably won't be able to come out (many things in my crazy life right now) unless something changes radically (as I'm writing this I am quite teary-eyed - I have many friends near Travis AFB in Fairfield/Suisun City). However, thanks for a wonderful trip down memory lane... :)