TimG

There has been plenty written about Culbertson, including at least one autobiography and one biography. Look around and read for yourself. One tidbit is that his name was not pronounced \ē-lī\ as I had always assumed, but somewhat closer to \ē-lē\ (think of his Romanian birth). Ginsberg posted (on rec.games.bridge) about the development of GIB and his attempts to get GIB to produce a bidding system. He seemed quite accessible. I followed that and the computer championships and had some brief private exchange with him. He never struck me as much of a self-promoter, certainly not of the self-aggrandizing type. I know a little about the disputes he had with Levy and have read about Jeremy Claptrap. I really don't understand what your issue with him is.

STRESSED backwards is DESSERTS.

Bud, I'd suggest taking the first month of deals and counting things like voids, singletons, and 7-card suits. Compare this to the expected number of each (and provide a confidence interval). Pin the results on the club bulletin board. Repeat after 2 months and 3 months. It won't convince everyone, but some players will find it interesting. And, some players will recognize that their perception doesn't quite match reality. Tim

It's funny that Silver takes criticism for what he does. He takes no polls of his own, he just interprets the polls that are conducted by others.

There have been efforts to get creationism into public school curriculum based upon scientific principles, but upon examination, the "scientific" part wasn't scientific at all. I guess what I meant to say was something like "based upon real science rather than just a claim of science."

I think you encapsulated American nationalism well. There are a few of us in America who are more than a bit creeped out by the daily pledge of allegiance. There are also plenty of people that understand that American pride can be offensive. History is replete with examples of one group of people feeling good about themselves by propagating a mostly imagined sense of superiority. I recently read (probably on facebook) a quote that went something like "Without pain, how can we know joy?" I think it is misguided, but many Americans think along the lines of "how can we be great if others don't know they are inferior?"

See this article: http://www.boston.com/sports/blogs/statsdriven/2012/11/nobodys_perfect_nate_silver_an.html Two states (Hawaii and West Virginia) actually fell outside Silver's confidence intervals, so he was more like 96% than 100%. Still damn impressive.

I think so too, embarrassingly so. Every candidate does it, but it would be nice if once elected to a second term, Obama could cut back on the rhetoric. The "God bless America" part is also annoying to me. But again, every candidate does it.

Religion adds some extra beliefs, things like creationism. When those of religious conviction try to force those beliefs on us (or our children), for me it becomes a problem of religious conviction. Sure, I would object to teaching creationism even if those behind the advocacy were doing so for scientific reasons, but no one has yet found scientific support for creationism; some opinions cannot be separated from religion.

Most expensive until the next one, right?

You mean some states that are Republican in 2012? From wiki: "[The Republican Party] emerged in 1854 to combat the Kansas Nebraska Act which threatened to extend slavery into the territories, and to promote more vigorous modernization of the economy. It had almost no presence in the South, but in the North it enlisted former Whigs and former Free Soil Democrats to form majorities, by 1858, in nearly every Northern state." But, of course, I did not intend "OK" to mean "legal".

Slavery was OK before there was a Constitutional Amendment prohibiting it?

I'm sorry if I'm repeating myself, but a few days ago someone told me they weren't voting for Obama because they thought he was "on their side" and by "their" this person meant "Muslims".

If the Federal Government offers an income tax filing status of "married filing jointly" which provides some benefit to married people, doesn't the Federal Government have to take a position on same sex marriage? Or, are these benefits supposed to be enjoyed by those in Massachusetts, but not those in Texas?

I don't think a true and accurate rating system is supposed to penalize or reward anyone. It's supposed to simply be a decent predictor of results. If you are good at forming a partnership and have done so, this will be reflected in your results and your rating.

I wouldn't be wondering whether Bergen applies in the competitive auction. I might think about it after an opponent questioned me. I guess that difference explains most of our disagreement about this.

Contrary to the way it may seem, I don't think I am advocating non-disclosure. I think there ought to be a certain likelihood that the "speculation" is true before it enters the picture. At some small likelihood, the extra information has more potential to mislead than to be helpful. When this is the case, it doesn't seem right to me to include the speculation. Perhaps an offer to speculate is in order, but I don't think the speculation should just be given. I wouldn't think an alert of 3C in the given auction is appropriate (unless natural and NF is alertable). But, if you think it is right to automatically give the information about the non-competitive treatment, doesn't that mean you should also alert 3C?

I think I've got to bid some number of spades to let partner know we have a fit. Although I voted for "definitely 4S" I don't think it's really important whether I bid 3S or 4S as long as I don't bid 3N.

Had to agree with one of us this time. . .

I do not think that playing Bergen raises in a non-competitive auction equates to an implicit agreement to play them over doubles. Partnership experience is two minutes to review a CC (that did not have Bergen raises in the "vs takeout doubles" section) and whatever hands they've played in this event. Upon which of these is North supposed to base his alert of 3C and two-way explanation?

I may have to reconsider my position! :-)

This doesn't make sense to me. Perhaps the reason we play good/bad Michaels is that there are objectives with good or bad hands that can be satisfied with a cue-bid overcall while the objectives are not the same when we hold an in between two-suiter. When I play good/bad, I do not assume I will always be able to show both my suits when I hold the in between strength.

How about: "We have no special partnership understanding. . .but I can speculate if you'd like."

If you are going to guess Bergen, then alert it and explain that it is Bergen, you must have some reason for believing you have this agreement. If you're going to guess natural, then don't alert and don't muddy the waters with a possible agreement. If it turns out you have given misinformation, the director will sort it out. Let me ask a slightly different question. Suppose North had alerted and explained when asked (by East): "3♣ is natural and weak, non-forcing, but we play Bergen if there was no double." Is North off the disclosure hook no matter what South has? I don't think he should be. It should still be MI if South believes there is an agreement to play Bergen and North has forgotten or misunderstood.

If North had said "No agreement, but we play Bergen Raises when there is no double" and it turned out responder had a weak hand with clubs, he would have been chastised for giving extraneous information, for muddying the waters. If North had alerted it and then given this explanation, he would be accused of giving UI information to partner (UI that he's not sure what the agreement is). The solution, of course, is to know what your agreements are. But, I don't think it is helpful to guess as to meanings, or hedge your bets with "I'm not sure, it could be this or it could be that." Either "there is no special partnership understanding" or perhaps even "I am unaware of any special partnership understanding" or, if there is a special partnership understanding, an unequivocal description of the understanding.