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I think Arends sequence is correct 1S 2H 4H 4N 5H 7H According to Mike Lawrences 2/1 notes, 4H in the sequence shows spade and heart support and no outside feature such as a A/K/singleton in the minors. Therefore according to this definition I would not bid 3H. (this is one of the very few times I disagree with JDonn)

I ran a simulation of 250 hands useing Deal Master Pro. It looks like exploring the clubs slam (via 3C) is worthwhile) since you can stop at a safe level. 3NT = 98% 4NT = 88% 5NT = 64% 6NT = 25% 5C = 81% 6C = 40% 7C = 8% The club slam is far less than NickRWs simulation. Maybe its a factor of the X's. I chose a mixture, all less than 8.

I must not understand Negative doubles, as I think X by South is the correct bid. I thought the modern treatment of Neg Dbls was heavy emphasis on the other major, as opposed to also having tolerance for the minor. If opener bids 2D in response to X, then you can correct to 2NT. You have a double Club stopper. You do have a planned response to 2D. OR am I overlooking/misunderstanding something? The 2NT rebid is bad?

5♠ I think pard is 4144. Pard bid at the 3 level, not the 4 level. I credit the opps with making a good save. For us to make 6 requires just 1 loser (presumably the heart). He needs a stiff heart and all of: S: A D: K Q C: A Q (and maybe the spade J if they are 4-1 unless it can be finessed. If pard has less, you can still make 6 if a finesse works. To make 5 means 1 additional loser. For a bid at the 3 level, I assume thats reasonable. I think the opps are going for at least 300, and maybe 500. 5 hearts, and 3 spade ruffs, so lead hearts twice. Then 5H + 2 ruffs. We take at least: 1 Spade, 4 dimes/clubs. 650 vs 300 or 500 650 is better but can you get it? I think the odds are close enough that its worth bidding, even with this balances hand. If you make 3/7 vs 500 you are around break even. Vs 300 you need more. I think 5S can make.

I don't agree, assuming you are playing Walsh. With this good a hand you bid 1D. Same for tradistional.

For those who bypass ♦ to show a major, there is an exception. Bid big hands traditionally. That is, Dimes before Hearts with 4/4. Thats why 1D is the correct first bid and not 1H

With 4432 shape, pard should have 18-19 HCP since he didnt open 1NT and with 12-14 I dont think he should be going to the 3 level. With 22 HCP he opens 2 Clubs. 3342? Same thing. Open 1NT unless 18-19. Maybe Advancer has a poor hand and 4 Clubs, and decided a 1 level raise was sufficient, so pard may have a stiff Club. 4441 or 3451? The spades are horrible. I bid 3 Dimes.

Bid 1NT, see what pard and opps do. I hope pard doesnt rebid 2 ♠, which I will pass. If pard bids 2♥ I bid 4♥. If pard bids a minor, I'm a bit worried as it could be just 3 cards, but I will raise it to the 3 level. Angling for NT.

I agree 100%. I once asked Eric Kokish a related question and he said "Use what you are comfortable and familiar with". The way I view it is I lose a lot though less than world class play. When Fred and Justin * start fearing me, I will worry more about switching to better methods. * = If I left anyone out, it was a deliberate slight to provoke a flame war :( :P

What about 1NT, then bidding 4 Spades. The 4333 shape is a minus. The "long" suit is weak. Maybe if the club or heart honrs were in Diamonds it would be worth a 2Dime bid playing 2/1. I don't see this as an obvious slam hand. Now maybe if pard is 5-5 you have a chance.

Pard has at least 3 Clubs, and could have 4. I would pass, since there is no assurance pard has hearts. He could have just 1. Maybe the opps balance, which is fine with you.

1. I dont like Norths opening bid. 2. Why did North open 1♦ instead of 1♣ with 3-3? Both suits are poor anyway. 3. West really bid 5 Clubs with that hand?

I still don't understand the XX. How does preemptor know his pard has anything useful? Its possible to be down 4 tricks. You can lose 1-2 diamonds, pard can have kings that are all in front of aces. I would pass the XX and let the Xer select the suit. Asd teh Xer, I would pass thinkiong pard has a decent hand. You can't just bid over 2♦ with crap in the direct seat.

I dont really like the X, but can live with it. 2♦ over a takeout double is not forcing. It shows ?5-9? Which is what East has. Easts dime suit is crummy. Bid 2♦. 3 Spades is a bad bid. It shows significant extras, where are they? I think 4 Clubs is ok. West is showing extras and shape. The hearts can be set up, or ruffed. Maybe 5 Clubs is better. (trying not to be a results merchant based on the cards shown) West will pass 4C becaus eof teh poor trump quality

What is XX? I really have my bid? What does pard do with a 3=3=4=3 hand over the XX? This is a difficult problem with random players, since the XX seems weird to me. What purpose does it serve? I think pard was releaived of bidding once the preemptor ReDoubled. I'll bet you 2 dimes XX makes.

Pull to 5♥ long explanation below IF we assume a 50% sucess rate then 50% * 12 IMPs - 50%*3 Imps = expected return 4.5 IMPs vs 3 IMPs if we wet them doubled 1. Thus its worth pulling. Unless we expected to set them 2, then its 7 IMPS. If its 50/50 taht we set them 1 or 2, then the expected gain is 5 IMPS from Doubling vs 4.5 from pulling. All this is too close. Are we sure its 50% vs 45%? Etc. The one factor infavor of pulling is pard will not expect us to have this hand. He is probably thinking we have more defense, and probably (maybe) a heart trick. I think Clubs are 6-4 or even 7-3. Pard has 2. Assuming support doubles, pard has 4 hearts, so the hearts are 1/1 or 0/2. Pard hand is probably 2=4=5=2 They are losing a spade, maybe a heart, and probably a dime or two or three. I very much doubt they are maing. They are very likely down 1 or 2. I think pard has more than a minimum to make the penalty double. To make, we have a club loser, maybe a spade loser (unless pard has the K), and maybe a dime or a heart. While I think our odds of making are better than 50%, I also think we have a good chance of setting them more than 1. Even so, I pull. Kx - Axxx - xxxxx - xx in pards hand and we make if the hearts are 1-1. Pard could have xx - Axxx - Axxxx - xx or xx - Kxxx - KQxxx - xx and we can make If pard has Kx - Axxx - Axxxx - xx we make 12 if hearts are 1/1

If RHO doubles I pass. Let pard select the better trump suit. And he gets to play it too. :P If RHO passes, I estimate 2NT will be down around 4 tricks, undoubled. In a suit contract, maybe down 2 doubled? I pass. If they X then pard can select the better minor.

I would never play a take out doubler to be holding 5 spades to the Ace and a decent hand. >In the US, it's a different matter. At least at non-expert level I think it's fairly standard to start with a double with 45/54 in the majors. Maybe. All articles I've read by experts (Gitelman, Lawrence, and others) advocate overcalling the 5 card major. If you get burned on one hand because the opponents are using inferior methods its annoying, but in the long run you will come out ahead. Against a pick up "advanced" player on BBO I went down on a couple of contracts becaus eI didn't think LHO would underled an ace against a suit contract on teh first trick, when there was no obvious reason for doing so (like dummy opening 2NT, or trying to get pard in for a ruff). I would play the Jack. The 8 seems like a very poor idea overall.

Since 2♥ is forcing for one round and pard did not support spades (he could have cue bid ♣) I assume he has hearts and something else. 2=5=3=3 ? I see no choice other than 3♦. I'm not feeling so good now :( Playing in spades in a 5-2/1 fit, and getting tapped with Clubs doesnt sound fun. On the other hand, I hope that 3♦ in this sequence doesnt show a huge hand. If it does, then I guess 2♠ is the only possibility.

Danny Roth covers this in his relatively new book "How Good Is Your Bridge"? Its a good book for B/I on declarere and defense play. He writes: Do not draw trumps unless you are fully confident taht you know exactly what is going to happen afterwards. If you are - and that includes being able to cater for a bad split - go ahead. If not, it is likely to be right to delay drawing trumps. Trumps can be important for entries, or to maintain control.

How Good is Your Bridge - Danny Roth Pretty good intermediate (and beginner) level book. Its a collection of declarer and defense problems. Nothing you wont have seen if you have read other problem books, but still a good collection for Intermediates (and beginners). I think I missed 1 or 2 declarer play problems (and got minor deductions for other things). One of the problems I missed was playing for a squeze when a ruffing finesse was a better play. This book might only have a couple of squeezes so no one should feel intimidated. I think it was Pottages Clues from the Bidding (which I didnt like) where it seemed like half the hands are double squeezes. On defense I missed a number (perhaps my success rate would be in the 80-90% range). Some of the problems I thought could have gone either ways and didn't think the authors solution was clearly the best. His assumed layout did not have to be the only reasonable one. Still, the problems were good. In general I like Danny Roth books. The cover says "Intermediate" and I recommend it for beginner/intermediates. I'm also reading Kelseys 4 books on Squeeze play. I just finished the first one - The simple squeeze. I have already read a couple of books on squeze play (Reese Squuezes made simple and Birds Squeeze Play for everyone - both EXCELLENT). I enjoyed this book and the explanations. In addition the author covers squeeeze defense in depth. And there are 20 problems, both defender and declarer. My only quibble is some squeezes are uncommon and while interesting to read about, I would like the author to mention that. Not knowing how to do a Criss Cross squeeze is far less costly than not knowing how to do a simple squeeze. Overall I found the book worthwhile and recommend it, but I think the Birdand Reese books should be read first. Eventually I will try rereading Clyde Loves book on Squeezes.

Its not infrequent that I ask established partnerships about a bid or carding (I ask specific questions, not "what is your carding") and they refuse to answer. One jerk actually refused to answer me, and would only tell my pard. :unsure: When I sit I type "we use 2/1 standard count/attitude O/E discards and 4th best leads". I almost never see the opponents make similar statements. Against pick up partnerships I don't expect much since they almost never have agreements.

Does not West have a limit Raise, and hence not weak? For point counters: They have: (2) 2 HCP in spades (3) singleton diamond (3) 3 HCP in clubs (2) extra length in clubs Thats 10 points and qualifies as a limit raise. Can not a player say "In my judgment this has good playing strength and I felt it warranted a limit raise?" You might not agree with their judgment, but a player is allowed to not have good judgment. If you punish west (and west wasn't trying to do anything wrong) then why not punish someone who opens light? Sometimes I encounter people who open 1NT with 18-19 or even 20. BTW - why did East oepn 1 Club and not 1 Diamond? WIth 4-4 and better Diamonds?

Maybe you should take into account that on slam hands, declarer has a huge double dummy advantage, since he has all the cards and cannot guess anything wrong. So even on most 24-counts slam is not great. Declarer can guese things wrong if he has 32 HCP and needs 12 tricks. He may need to find a Q, or the distribution of a couple of suits. Is the concern that a Double Dummy analyzer is too favorable to the defense? In any case, with 32, according to Deal Master pro, a balanced 24 plus this hand has a good shot at slam, so the invite is correct, if South will pass with less than 24. Even with 23 and the 5 card suit, its not like 6NT is doomed. 5 is fairly safe (87% with 250 simulations). It may be counter intuitive (at least to me) but it seems invite is the correct action (assuming 2NT = balanced 24 HCP) As for 24 HCP not rebidding 2NT after opeing 2 Clubs, why not? Not everyone uses Kokish. How many non experts use it? Maybe some that are really into systems. How many very good club players use it?

Why is 2NT wrong? North has stoppers, and a balanced shape, and at that point suspects South is 4=5 in the reds. Is 2NT wrong because it can be on a weak hand, and this is a GF hand? In that case, what about 3NT instead of 2NT? South should bid 3D instaed of 2NT? Does that not imply 4 Diamonds? Or is not, because its just a preference.