MickyB

In terms of what honours players prefer to lead from, I've come across K > Q > J J > Q > K Q > K or J but never before K or J > Q

If you lead K from KQT or AKxx, partner must discourage with the jack, this seems basically unplayable. Q from KQx or QJ9 is much less of an issue.

Yup, same for the England vs Netherlands practice match in Brighton. Both are going back a few years now.

Scoring and vul? Was North's 1C opening systemic?

1♦-P-3♦ denies a four-card major but a vulnerable weak two can be 5-4 in the majors? :blink:

It's not the extra card that's the biggest issue. If a 1NT opener shows 4-5 spades, he has 2-5 cards in each minor. If a 1NT opener shows 5 spades, he has 2-3 cards in each minor.

I prefer 1N:2N as puppet, as Meckwell play, partly because then oppo don't get to double 3C as well as 3M. When I don't want to find a 5-3 fit, I'll normally use Stayman, because 1N:2N, 3M:3N gives away a lot about opener's hand. I definitely think puppet comes out ahead when responder is 4-3 majors, although obviously we will sometimes lose when the other table bids 1N:2C, 2D:3N and they are scared off leading the other major. I pretty much only bid 1N:2N without a four-card major if I've got a low doubleton, I'd be surprised if 3N rated to outplay 4M on such hands. Another argument in favour of Puppet not mentioned in the OP is that it is also good for balanced slam-tries.

Sorry, forgot to post the full hand.[hv=pc=n&s=st973hakq976da5c5&w=sa542h854dk72cj94&n=skqj6hjtdt3ckt763&e=s8h32dqj9864caq82&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=p3d3hp4hppp]399|300[/hv]

Great, let me know whether it works :P I know some play - X = pens 2C = majors 2D = good 2M overcall 2M = bad 2M overcall With this refinement, that could become - 2D = good 2H overcall or any 2S overcall 2H = bad 2H overcall 2S = 4S,5+m 2N = 4H,6+m

I believe (1N)-2D-(P)-2S is usually played as, "to play opposite spades, invite+ opposite hearts" or "to play opposite spades, at least a preemptive raise of hearts". Wouldn't it be better to play it as "invite opposite either major"? The losses would come when we wanted to be in game opposite hearts but not spades, and partner actually has hearts. This seems exceedingly rare, as the opponents will nearly always compete to 2S on such hands. The advantage, of letting responder invite then stop in 2S, is surely much larger. Am I missing anything?

3NT

1D-(1S)-?? xx KJx Axxx Jxxx

Yup love all = noone has scored a game = both NV. Just checking, are you in favour of a spade lead or not? The 't' in 'its' feels like it might be a typo.

Why are the 6+club and 6+diamond figures so different? These numbers don't look right to me. My estimate was wrong too, I forgot to remove 5M332 from the 1D opening, which gives me 57-58% - but that was without removing 5D422 14-15, so I'd expect your method to produce a higher figure.

P-3D-3H-P 4H-AP Love all, IMPs You to lead from - A542 854 K72 J94

I think partner will have an 11-13 NT about 62% of the time. That assumes 2C shows six, 4414 opens 2D, no 10hcp openings and no off-shape 1NT openings, so I suspect it's higher than that in practice unless you open a lot of unbal 10s but few balanced 10s. I would bid 2H, yes. Even if partner is unbal they don't have to have a stiff heart.

I was a 3H bidder when given the hand. There was quite a split between pass/3H/4D amongst good players who have been given the hand away from the forums. I don't know the full hand, sorry.

[hv=pc=n&s=s4hqj86543da82ct9&n=saj532hk2d4caqj65&d=s&v=n&b=15&a=3hp4hppp]266|200|ST lead[/hv]

Sorry, rho's signal is standard count.

void AKJxxx Axxx KQx 1H:1S ?? Unfav IMPs

[hv=pc=n&s=skq87654ha2dj96c3&n=sa32ht9d74cakq542&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=1c(nat%20unbal/17-19%20NT)2h(weak)2sp4sp5cp5sppp]266|200|Jallerton on your right, Chris Jagger on your left. T1: DK486 T2: DA759 T3: D3[/hv]

Count leads are in the same boat as 3rd+5th in that regard. Comparison with other methods is harder, but I suspect attitude information vs suits is as likely to help declarer's play to trick one as it is to help partner's, and you are better off making the count signal as clear as possible. With a willing partner, I like to play Fantunes-style leads [versus suit contracts only].

Vs NT - attitude [low encouraging] Vs suits - count [low odd] Simple and effective. I dislike 3rd+5th because you often can't distinguish three from four until it is too late, the same card is led from Q63 and Q632. Slawinski Combine leads are trying to achieve too much in my opinion, a binary signal is much clearer. Maybe I just needed more practice with them. Slawkinski's analysis claimed that they were superior but his methodology was demonstrably flawed.

According to http://web.inter.nl.net/hcc/M.A.F/c30-37e.htm: P (being dealt a 4441) = 2.993% There are binomial calculators online, I used http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx P (precisely five 4441s in 24 attempts) = 0.0573% P (at least five 4441s in 24 attempts) = 0.0634%