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MickyB

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Everything posted by MickyB

  1. MickyB

    Wtp?

    I'd have thought the choice was between the spade ace and a low heart.
  2. MickyB

    Wtp?

    2♥ showed 5♥s, I think this is pretty standard (X shows 4 or maybe a bad 5). So RHO is marked with a void unless you think LHO has psyched on precisely three hearts - I say precisely three, because it seems very unlikely that RHO has a doubleton heart on this bidding. Anyway, at the table, it *really* didn't feel like LHO had psyched.
  3. MickyB

    Wtp?

    I doubled at the table and thought it clearcut, was suprised how many good players who I asked preferred 1♠. You really want to invite partner to bid a suit while the auction is still at a low level, which will leave you well-placed. The auction proceeded 1♦-X-1♥-2♥ 3♣-3♥-5♦-X all pass What would you lead?
  4. MickyB

    Wtp?

    While people who double directly are not? B) Correct.
  5. MickyB

    Wtp?

    I presume this isn't a vote for pass? :unsure:
  6. [hv=d=e&v=n&s=saxxxxhatxxdcjtxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP RHO opens 1♦. Do you bid 1♠ or dbl?[/hv]
  7. Two ideas that have relevance here, neither of which are mine - "1430 if you've shown an opening hand or better, otherwise 3041" "When partner shows three keycards, returning to five-of-the-trump-suit is a queen ask opposite three keycards"
  8. I think it should be 12/42*11/41*10/40*5!/(2!*3!) = 19,16% and 13/43*12/42*11/41*10/40*5!/4! = 2,89% Where are you getting those numbers - 43, 42, 41, 40 - from? I was looking it at from the point of view of - give one hand AKQxxxx precisely give one of the opponents the jack now the probability of that opponent receiving the next diamond is 12/38 - there are 38 vacant spaces in the other three hands, and the hand which we are assuming has the jack has twelve of them.
  9. Your answer looks right to me - thought mine seemed a touch high.
  10. One-third of the time, pard will have the jack, then you are nigh on 100% - stiff jack and a 5-0 break the one time the suit won't run (assuming you have an entry?) The other two-thirds of the time, you require neither oppo to have four cards in the suit. So - Give one opponent the jack. The chance of that oppo having four cards in the suit is 12/38*11/37*10/36*5!/(2!*3!) = 26.1% The chance of the other oppo having four cards in the suit is 13/38*12/37*11/36*10/35*5!/4! = 4.8% So I make it in the region of 21% to not run.
  11. How do you play 2NT on the above auction? Most seem to play lebensohl. That seems pretty redundant to me. Firstly, I'm often bidding for the lead, so not being able to show my suit immediately isn't very useful. Secondly, if I've got a weak hand, but it's right for us to compete, it will usually mean partner is strong - in which case, he will usually double again. It feels like there must be something better. How about, over 1♠-X-2♠ - 2NT = ♦ - now 3♣ is a range enquiry 3♣ = natural 3♦ = ♥, decent hand 3♥ = ♥, poor hand And, if you feel you can double on all other hands, 3♠ could be played as strong with clubs.
  12. 5,6,4,4,5,5,5,5,5,6,6//6,6,7,7,inf - 20 board matches 5,5,4,4,4,4,4,4,5,5,5//6,6,6,7,inf - 16 board matches ^----------------------^------------^ 15-15..................25-5..........25-0 Those are the IMP ranges for a particular VP score (apologies for the formatting). Unlike the EBU scale, the WBF scale isn't far off being linear, so there isn't much reason to swing when you are losing unless you think you are already losing 25-0 - hopefully a rare occurance! The main thing that you might wish to consider is that, when you are in 25 VP territory, it is desirable to reduce variance. This presents a problem, as the team that is losing shouldn't have as great a desire to increase variance - basically, the matches in the Euros aren't zero-sum, but obviously your trial does have to be zero-sum. The closest you could get to emulating this would be to score purely by IMPs, but with two caps - Upto the IMP total required for 25-5, IMPs count 100% Between the IMP totals required for 25-5 and 25-0, IMPs count 50%, to reflect the fact that you only wish the IMPs to count for one of the two teams. Beyond the IMP total for 25-0, extra IMPs do not count. Compared with scoring by VPs, the most likely effect of this method would be to reduce the chance of a close match being decided by who got [to steal a phrase from MGB] "value for money" on the VP scale, which is clearly desirable.
  13. Don't see how it can be "forward going" - you need to bid 3♥ on a minimum with ♥+♣. The auction seems reasonable to me.
  14. Not the most flattering of comparisons. I would prefer to think of it as being like the dance of the seven veils.
  15. This. The situation is that we have a 2NT opening free to use as a preempt. What should it be used to show? I much prefer H+m to both minors. Nah, 3♦ is an enquiry. Of course I've played it! Small sample size, but so far the results have been split about 50/50 between "good" and "neutral".
  16. You've probably seen me post in the past about 2NT as 5H5m, I am pretty keen on it. I've no data to compare it with 2♥ showing the same handtype, but certainly if you want to keep 2♥ as weak (or Ekren, or three-suiter short in D) it is a good use of the 2NT bid. So what about the 2♦ bid? One problem is responder holding a moderate 2425 or similar. Most likely, pard has S+D and you want to be in 2♠; but a reasonable proportion of the time, pard will have either H or C and you'll belong in game. There's no way to cater to both. Of course, the same is true of any two-suited bid that may or may not include the other major. Also, it isn't actually legal at EBU level 4 - it can't show either "diamonds" or "not diamonds" - so 2♦ as spades and a round suit would be legal, but 2♦ as spades and another is not. It's certainly not a bad idea. IMO the only question that really needs answering is, "is this 2♦ bid more effective than a weak 2 in diamonds?"
  17. There's no easy way to calculate it precisely, having looked at some stuff online the approximation I've arrived at is for a 180 lb male, 5 units of alcohol takes them over the US/UK limit It takes one hour for your body to process one *unit* of alcohol - NOT the commonly quoted one drink. I'd guess a typical US beer is 2 units - that's 20ml (0.7 fl oz) of alcohol - guessing you know this better than I do though. A 160lb male would need an extra hour or so, depending on how much was drunk - 4.5 units would be sufficient to reach the limit initially in this case. All calculations can be done from the time you start drinking, assuming you don't make the first drink last two hours or something.
  18. Two Qs. The first - AKxx Kx AQJxx xx You open, and bid uncontested - 1♦:1♥ 1♠:2♦ What now? The second - I hear that fitting hands play better than misfits. Can't the discovery of a 6-2 diamond fit improve a hand to being worthy of forcing to game?
  19. I would consider playing 10/11-13 1st NV only, otherwise I want my 1NT to be strong. When I was playing something that was well suited to switching no-trump range (transfer walsh, allowing you to show two balanced ranges at the one-level) I did just that. However, playing most methods, it is a lot of added complexity, in return for a gain when you open 1NT but (IMO) a loss when you don't.
  20. Against a weak no-trump, it's normal to use double of a red-suit transfer as showing values. I can't think of any reason why this would be different over 1N:2S (1NT:2NT is a different matter as they are more likely to be able to make 2NT than to make 2S - now double should probably be takeout of their suit). I was fairly sure that 3♣ would be for the majors. 2NT as ♦+M makes sense, but I was worried that would show the two lowest. In that case, 4♣ should be ♠+♦, but I wasn't trying that undiscussed either! So, it seemed to come down to 3♦ or 3♠. I bid 3♠ on the grounds that we are more likely to have game in the major, and if they compete in clubs it gives me the option to bid both my suits without pushing a level higher if partner prefers diamonds. Reasonable? Feel free to post just to say that you wish to abstain from the second part! The auction now proceeds (pass)-4♠-(5♣) and it's over to you again...
  21. 1NT - (pass) - 2♠ (transfer to clubs) to you. What agreements do you have to show two-suiters here? [hv=d=w&v=e&s=saq9xxhtxdaj9xxxc]133|100|Scoring: IMP 1NT is 12-14. Assuming you haven't discussed this auction, so trying to show both suits in one go is unlikely to be successful, what call do you make?[/hv]
  22. MickyB

    Random

    I'd consider a heart then lead a club...Q9xx is a much worse lead than QTxx so I agree with that being "fourth best". Would anyone change their answer if the heart ten was, say, the seven?
  23. Yup it's hardly an auction to preempt on...3♠ is plenty.
  24. Washington Standard uses a similar 1♠ rebid. Now opener's 2♥ rebid is ART, a good raise of spades - they open 1♥ with 5♥6♣ so this isn't needed as NAT. Even if you do have a penchant for opening your longest suit, I suspect the 2♥ rebid could be used as a good raise - it must be playable to allocate a higher call to show 5♥6♣.
  25. Interesting...surely it's this style, where opener can still have four spades in a 4423 pattern, that benefits more from responder being able to rebid a natural 1♠?
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