tysen2k

1[cl] - art. strong [space] 1[di] - neg 1[he] - either balanced or 2-suited with better hearts [space] 1[sp] - 2nd neg or balanced 2[di] - 5+[he], 4+[di], not GF [space] 2[he] 4[he]

The best way to do hand evaluation is to see how they do opposite all possible hands partner could have. You can estimate this by simulating the number of tricks over thousands of hands. Doing this gives you the average value of the hand. You'll upgrade it in some cases when the bidding indicates a good fit and downgrade it in the case of a misfit. But when you start, using the average of everything puts you in the best starting point. Let's look at two of the hands that have been discussed. xx Axxx Kxxx Axx This hand takes an average of 8.47 tricks in our best suit contract and 6.56 tricks in a NT contract. xx KJxx QJxx KJx This hand takes 8.17 tricks in suit and 6.37 tricks in NT. The first hand is better for both suits and NT. How much better? You can take a look at all 4432 shape hands and see how tricks compare to HCP. HCP Suit NT 10 7.94 5.92 11 8.20 6.28 12 8.46 6.63 13 8.71 6.98 So the first hand has the strength of an average 12 HCP hand for suits and 11.8 HCP for NT. The second hand is about 10.9 HCP for suits and 11.3 HCP for NT. The first hand is 1.1 points better than the second for suits and 0.5 points better for NT. Note that they are both better than the average 11 HCP hand since there are no honors in the short suits. I've received some PM's asking where my evaluation method is described and it's here. This evaluation scheme was created using the methodology of finding an accurate evaluator over the average of all partner's hands with the hope of adjusting from there during the bidding. Tysen

I'm going to go back to the original topic rather than going off on how wrong, vague, etc. any regulations on opening bids are. My combination of research, simulation, and experience at the table leads me to the philosophy that distributional hands should be opened whenever possible. I open both of the hands in the initial post. However, I also have another idea that goes a little bit against the "conventional" wisdom of having the master suit spades. Let's say you have a hand that you consider a borderline opener (whatever that strength happens to be). There are various "rules" or "guides" that you can use to push your decision towards either opening or passing. Suit quality is one, and another is possession of the majors, especially spades. My simulations of bidding effeciencies suggest that this second point may not be correct. Let's say that for your system, both of these hands are borderline strength (if not, then tweak it so that it becomes a borderline decision): AQxxx x QTxx VS AQxxx QTx QTxx x QTx I think conventional wisdom tells you that you should be more willing to open the hand on the left than the right. However, my simulations indicate that if you have suits without spades, it's more important to open. If you have spades, it's easier to come into the auction later. Hearts is the key suit that gets lost more often. I'm not saying that this rule applies in all situations; if you pass the left hand, you might not be able to get back in at all. But it's easier to get back in than with the right hand. If given these two hands and forced to open one and pass the other, I think I'd open the right one. Tysen

The first hand depends largely on your system. With a pick-up partner, I say 1♠ with the hand as given and Pass without the ♥Q. If my partner knew me and the way I bid, I'd bid 1♠ with or without the Q. On the second hand I think a direct 3N is best at both MP and IMP. Those of you who want to investigate things are giving the opps too much information. Keep the auction simple and you can make 3N more often even when it's supposed to go down. Tysen

What is your opening bid of 5C+4M ? (1c?) Or balanced 11-16?

Too rarely? I'm willing to bet at least 50% of all bridge players play a 15-17 1NT without 5-card majors and I don't hear them complaining of not opening 1NT often enough. Just because most people do it doesn't mean it's best from a bidding theory point of view. Light openings are also quite valuable, but I know a lot of people who won't open a 12 point hand. Yuck! You want to bid 2N on 15-17 when partner very likely only has 6-7? And you might not even be balanced so partner can't really evaluate his shape? I think you made my point for me; not opening these hands with 1N puts more burden on you major openings. Tysen

Not really. The weak NT occurs much more frequently than the strong. A strong NT without 5cM occurs too rarely to be of much use. It becomes an underutilized bid and puts more burden on the rest of your system. And since you're stronger the danger of missing a 2M partscore is much less. The weak NT is much more frequent with or without the 5cM. Adding 5cM to the weak NT increases the preemptiveness but hurts constructive bidding. Around 12-14, the bonus to preemptiveness still outweighs the constructive burden, so it's worth including 5cM. Go much weaker than that and the loss of constructive bidding hurts more than the bonus of added preemption. The weaker opener gets, the less likely responder is to have an invitational hand that is able to use weapons like Puppet Stayman. The inibility to play in 2M hurts more in MP than IMP's, but it still hurts in both. Tysen

This is an area that I've devoted some time and research into studying. Some things I've discovered: For strong NT, including 5cM scores better simply because of increased frequency. 1NT is a pretty effective bid for both constructive and preemptive purposes and so increasing its frequency is a good thing. Taking 5c ♠s out doesn't hurt that much. Taking out the hearts hurts more. For weak NT, it's more of a wash, but including the 5cM is still better than not. The weaker we are the more likely a major partial is going to be better than NT. So we suffer more by not mentioning our major when we're weak, but it's still worth it from a frequency/preemption point of view. If you go weaker than about 12-14, then it's probably better not have the 5cM. Tysen

Not a difinitive answer, but I finished up a Bidding System Design Contest over on rgb which got a lot of attention. There were a wide variety of entrants inclusing several strong pass systems. The method I used is one way of determining the strength of a system in itself without regard to partnership familiarity or harmony. Tysen

I also agree on using solution 1 based on frequency. I think the degree of advantage/disadvantage is about the same, so try to be disadvantaged less often. There would be some merit in 3♣ = both minors if you could use 2-under transfer preempts allowing you to play wider ranges of strength/quality and thus preempting a lot more often. But this means either having no 3-level club preempt (maybe not too bad) or losing your 2♠ bid so you can show clubs. Tysen

Playing standard methods I pass at all forms of scoring. Bidding 2♣ will most likely result in a 2NT contract. Ugh.

2♠ is a slight underbid, but the best choice. I don't like pass at all. I think partner is more likely to be 64 than 55. 4-3 fits play best when the 3 trump hand has some shortness. That's not the case here. If I could count on partner for solid opening bids I'd say 2NT is my second choice. Tysen

Longest minor. Doubler is hoping you find his void.

I just finished a "Bidding System Design Contest" over on rgb. http://tinyurl.com/5y28g A total of 18 systems of various styles and complexities entered, but the funny thing is that the winner of the contest was a Precision system that had a 1♦ opening that promises 5+♦s. 1♣ = strong 1♦/2♣ = 6+ or 5 w/ side 4-carder 1♥/1♠ = 5+ 1NT: 13-15 balanced (May be 2254 or 2245) 2♦: Roman

I disagree with this philosophy in most cases. If they have a slam, they might find it without our help. Who knows, if I jump they might even be pushed to a slam when they can only make 5. My experience has shown it's better to push it higher when we have a fit, not to hide because the knowledge of our fit might lead them to slam.

They also played strong 2s and "stronger" 3s. :P

5♥. Put the guess on the opponents.

Exactly. North has more than a minimum, but not enough to jump to 3♠. It's the club fit that makes these hands better. North has no clue about that. Tysen

I agree with Ben here. The double and 2NT go hand-in-hand. The problem is you aren't likely to have discussed either of these bids with partner. You might have a general agreement about 2NT in competition. In that case, it's the 2NT that defines your double. Without prior agreement I think partner has a penalty pass of ♠, but I wouldn't be surprised if he has the minors. Tysen

Assuming you play negative doubles, I'd say partner can't have a penalty double of hearts...

2sp ment to show some power in spade to help partner bid 3nt if he got something in club. How should i'v bid it ? 3D doesnt sound like forcing to me. Forcing with an 11 count ? I think if you bid 3♦, it should show about 10-11 HCP with ♦ fit, isn't that what you have ? Mike :blink: Given partner likely has 6 diamonds, this hand is way to strong for a NF 3♦. This is way more than a typical 11-count. I would have initially responded 2♦ inverted even playing that it denies a 4cM. If I were somehow forbidden to bid 2♦ with this heart suit, I think the bidding was fine and would pass now at matchpoints. Playing IMPs I would investigate further with 4D.

I agree and think 2NT as natural is the worst. As I play 3♠ as preemptive in this situation, I bid 3♦ as limit raise or better with exactly 3 trumps. I'm still puzzled by the 3♣ bid although I'm assuming the "assign the blame" is restricted to N-S.

[improving Hand Evaluation Part 1] http://tinyurl.com/25huc [improving Hand Evaluation Part 2] http://tinyurl.com/383e6 [improving Hand Evaluation Part 3] http://tinyurl.com/2xhdf How should you change your hand evaluation when the opponents enter the bidding? Common sense tells you that if your opponents show a suit, your hand goes up in value if you are short in that suit and down in value if you are long. But how many points should you adjust by? 1? Half a point? Similarly we’ve been told that AQ or Kx goes up in value if RHO bids this suit, but down in value if LHO bids it. Again, how much should you adjust? Maybe a point but probably less? This article quantifies some of these adjustments. Read on, I bet you aren't adjusting enough. First let’s look at how many points you should adjust based on distribution. I’ve defined the pattern convention 2=5-4-2 to be a hand with 2 cards in a key suit (in these examples your opponent’s suit) and 5-4-2 in the remaining suits (any order). I’ll give adjustments in terms of tricks (for finer adjustments), but I’ve also given the equivalents in terms of normal MWC points and also in TSP (my evaluation method based on a 6-4-2-1 honor count described in Part 3). The adjustments are different if your RHO made the bid or if LHO did it. If your opponent just named a 5+ card suit (let’s say he opened 1♠) then you should make the following adjustments to your original hand valuation: [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] Tricks [space] [space] [space] MWC [space] [space] TSP Pattern [space] RHO [space] [space]LHO [space] RHO LHO RHO LHO 0=5-4-4 [space] 0.86 [space] 0.75 [space] 2 [space] 2 [space] 4 [space] 3 0=5-5-3 [space] 0.75 [space] 0.67 [space] 2 [space] 2 [space] 3 [space] 3 0=6-4-3 [space] 0.75 [space] 0.65 [space] 2 [space] 2 [space] 3 [space] 3 0=6-5-2 [space] 0.77 [space] 0.62 [space] 2 [space] 2 [space] 3 [space] 3 0=7-4-2 [space] 0.74 [space] 0.59 [space] 2 [space] 2 [space] 3 [space] 2 1=4-4-4 [space] 0.51 [space] 0.49 [space] 1 [space] 1 [space] 2 [space] 2 1=5-4-3 [space] 0.46 [space] 0.44 [space] 1 [space] 1 [space] 2 [space] 2 1=5-5-2 [space] 0.50 [space] 0.42 [space] 1 [space] 1 [space] 2 [space] 2 1=6-3-3 [space] 0.43 [space] 0.40 [space] 1 [space] 1 [space] 2 [space] 2 1=6-4-2 [space] 0.48 [space] 0.35 [space] 1 [space] 1 [space] 2 [space] 1 1=6-5-1 [space] 0.45 [space] 0.40 [space] 1 [space] 1 [space] 2 [space] 2 1=7-3-2 [space] 0.35 [space] 0.30 [space] 1 [space] 1 [space] 1 [space] 1 1=7-4-1 [space] 0.38 [space] 0.29 [space] 1 [space] 1 [space] 2 [space] 1 2=4-4-3 [space] 0.11 [space] 0.20 [space] 0 [space] 1 [space] 0 [space] 1 2=5-3-3 [space] 0.11 [space] 0.20 [space] 0 [space] 1 [space] 0 [space] 1 2=5-4-2 [space] 0.14 [space] 0.18 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 1 [space] 1 2=5-5-1 [space] 0.15 [space] 0.24 [space] 0 [space] 1 [space] 1 [space] 1 2=6-3-2 [space] 0.10 [space] 0.12 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 2=6-4-1 [space] 0.14 [space] 0.15 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 1 [space] 1 2=6-5-0 [space] 0.15 [space] 0.13 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 1 [space] 1 2=7-2-2 [space] 0.00 [space] 0.04 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 2=7-3-1 [space] 0.06 [space] 0.04 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 3=4-3-3 [space]-0.01 [space] 0.04 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 3=4-4-2 [space]-0.01 [space] 0.01 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 3=5-3-2 [space]-0.04 [space] 0.00 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 3=5-4-1 [space]-0.04 [space] 0.01 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 3=5-5-0 [space]-0.03 [space]-0.04 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 3=6-2-2 [space]-0.12 [space]-0.08 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 3=6-3-1 [space]-0.10 [space]-0.07 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 3=6-4-0 [space]-0.15 [space]-0.06 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 3=7-2-1 [space]-0.16 [space]-0.21 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 4=3-3-3 [space]-0.19 [space]-0.29 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 4=4-3-2 [space]-0.24 [space]-0.36 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 4=4-4-1 [space]-0.32 [space]-0.35 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 4=5-2-2 [space]-0.36 [space]-0.43 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 4=5-3-1 [space]-0.34 [space]-0.42 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 4=5-4-0 [space]-0.32 [space]-0.36 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 4=6-2-1 [space]-0.41 [space]-0.52 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 4=6-3-0 [space]-0.36 [space]-0.41 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 5=3-3-2 [space]-0.67 [space]-0.84 [space]-2 [space]-2 [space]-3 [space]-3 5=4-2-2 [space]-0.73 [space]-0.89 [space]-2 [space]-2 [space]-3 [space]-4 5=4-3-1 [space]-0.77 [space]-0.87 [space]-2 [space]-2 [space]-3 [space]-4 5=5-2-1 [space]-0.86 [space]-0.98 [space]-2 [space]-3 [space]-4 [space]-4 So for distribution it doesn’t make as much of a difference if the opponent was LHO or RHO. For MWC points, the adjustment is almost always +2 for void, +1 for singleton, -1 for 4 cards, and -2 for 5. In your recent games have you been subtracting 2 points when you have 5 cards in the opponent’s suit? Maybe you should. Now let’s look at how your HCP should change if your opponent bids. This time it matters more if it was LHO or RHO. But something is going on with these numbers, they are all losing value: [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] Tricks [space] [space] [space] MWC [space] [space] TSP [space] [space] [space] [space] RHO [space] [space]LHO [space] RHO LHO RHO LHO x [space] [space] [space] 0.00 [space] 0.00 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 T [space] [space] [space]-0.01 [space]-0.06 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 J [space] [space] [space]-0.07 [space]-0.05 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Q [space] [space] [space]-0.09 [space]-0.08 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 K [space] [space] [space]-0.15 [space]-0.14 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 A [space] [space] [space]-0.05 [space]-0.07 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 xx [space] [space] [space]0.00 [space] 0.00 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Tx [space] [space] -0.03 [space]-0.03 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Jx [space] [space] -0.04 [space]-0.09 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 JT [space] [space] -0.12 [space]-0.15 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 Qx [space] [space] -0.09 [space]-0.16 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 QT [space] [space] -0.10 [space]-0.21 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 QJ [space] [space] -0.22 [space]-0.20 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 Kx [space] [space] -0.03 [space]-0.23 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 KT [space] [space] -0.13 [space]-0.30 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 KJ [space] [space] -0.09 [space]-0.25 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 KQ [space] [space] -0.24 [space]-0.29 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 Ax [space] [space] -0.03 [space]-0.14 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 AT [space] [space] -0.04 [space]-0.17 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 AJ [space] [space] -0.05 [space]-0.19 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 AQ [space] [space] [space]0.00 [space]-0.27 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 AK [space] [space] -0.16 [space]-0.20 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 xxx [space] [space] 0.00 [space] 0.00 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Txx [space] [space]-0.04 [space]-0.09 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Jxx [space] [space]-0.07 [space]-0.16 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 JTx [space] [space]-0.16 [space]-0.18 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 Qxx [space] [space]-0.12 [space]-0.26 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 QTx [space] [space]-0.21 [space]-0.32 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 QJx [space] [space]-0.25 [space]-0.33 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 QJT [space] [space]-0.30 [space]-0.38 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 Kxx [space] [space]-0.08 [space]-0.33 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 KTx [space] [space]-0.16 [space]-0.40 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 KJx [space] [space]-0.16 [space]-0.44 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 KJT [space] [space]-0.17 [space]-0.40 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 Axx [space] [space]-0.08 [space]-0.12 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 KQx [space] [space]-0.30 [space]-0.43 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 ATx [space] [space]-0.09 [space]-0.23 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 KQT [space] [space]-0.20 [space]-0.48 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 KQJ [space] [space]-0.43 [space]-0.38 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 AJx [space] [space]-0.09 [space]-0.34 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 AJT [space] [space]-0.17 [space]-0.38 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 AQx [space] [space]-0.08 [space]-0.37 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-2 AQT [space] [space] 0.02 [space]-0.49 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-2 AQJ [space] [space]-0.12 [space]-0.45 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-2 AKx [space] [space]-0.20 [space]-0.30 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 AKT [space] [space]-0.19 [space]-0.40 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 AKJ [space] [space]-0.17 [space]-0.40 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 AKQ [space] [space]-0.33 [space]-0.56 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-1 [space]-2 xxxx [space] [space]0.00 [space] 0.00 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Txxx [space] -0.01 [space]-0.10 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Jxxx [space] -0.12 [space]-0.11 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 JTxx [space] -0.17 [space]-0.10 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 Qxxx [space] -0.15 [space]-0.21 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 QTxx [space] -0.18 [space]-0.27 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 QJxx [space] -0.24 [space]-0.32 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 QJTx [space] -0.34 [space]-0.26 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 Kxxx [space] -0.17 [space]-0.36 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 KTxx [space] -0.21 [space]-0.44 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 KJxx [space] -0.25 [space]-0.54 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-1 [space]-2 KJTx [space] -0.30 [space]-0.52 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 Axxx [space] -0.13 [space]-0.17 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 KQxx [space] -0.39 [space]-0.49 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 ATxx [space] -0.15 [space]-0.26 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 KQTx [space] -0.44 [space]-0.50 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 KQJx [space] -0.45 [space]-0.50 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 KQJT [space] -0.35 [space]-0.44 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 AJxx [space] -0.23 [space]-0.36 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 AJTx [space] -0.27 [space]-0.42 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 AQxx [space] -0.18 [space]-0.40 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 AQTx [space] -0.15 [space]-0.43 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 AQJx [space] -0.31 [space]-0.41 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 AKxx [space] -0.34 [space]-0.36 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 AQJT [space] -0.51 [space]-0.55 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 [space]-2 AKTx [space] -0.38 [space]-0.41 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 AKJx [space] -0.41 [space]-0.49 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 AKJT [space] -0.43 [space]-0.40 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 AKQx [space] -0.51 [space]-0.46 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 AKQT [space] -0.39 [space]-0.69 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 [space]-3 AKQJ [space] -0.40 [space]-0.88 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 [space]-4 xxxxx [space] 0.00 [space] 0.00 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Txxxx [space]-0.04 [space]-0.04 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Jxxxx [space] 0.01 [space]-0.07 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 JTxxx [space]-0.06 [space]-0.11 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Qxxxx [space]-0.13 [space]-0.27 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 QTxxx [space]-0.12 [space]-0.21 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 QJxxx [space]-0.20 [space]-0.29 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 QJTxx [space]-0.26 [space]-0.22 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 Kxxxx [space]-0.27 [space]-0.34 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 KTxxx [space]-0.26 [space]-0.45 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 KJxxx [space]-0.33 [space]-0.56 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-1 [space]-2 KJTxx [space]-0.41 [space]-0.42 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 Axxxx [space]-0.20 [space]-0.18 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 KQxxx [space]-0.43 [space]-0.51 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 KQTxx [space]-0.59 [space]-0.61 [space]-2 [space]-2 [space]-2 [space]-3 ATxxx [space]-0.11 [space]-0.27 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 KQJxx [space]-0.50 [space]-0.60 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 [space]-2 KQJTx [space]-0.44 [space]-0.67 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 [space]-3 AJxxx [space]-0.26 [space]-0.38 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 AJTxx [space]-0.25 [space]-0.40 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 AQxxx [space]-0.20 [space]-0.57 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-1 [space]-2 AQTxx [space]-0.24 [space]-0.57 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-1 [space]-2 AQJxx [space]-0.25 [space]-0.64 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-1 [space]-3 AKxxx [space]-0.43 [space]-0.47 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 AQJTx [space]-0.41 [space]-0.24 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-1 AKTxx [space]-0.41 [space]-0.74 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 [space]-3 AKJxx [space]-0.53 [space]-0.56 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 [space]-2 AKJTx [space]-0.52 [space]-0.65 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 [space]-3 AKQxx [space]-0.59 [space]-0.64 [space]-2 [space]-2 [space]-2 [space]-3 AKQTx [space]-0.48 [space]-0.66 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-2 [space]-3 AKQJx [space]-0.58 [space]-0.56 [space]-2 [space]-2 [space]-2 [space]-2 AKQJT [space] 0.06 [space]-0.30 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 I’d ignore the values for the stronger 5-card suits. There just weren’t enough samples to make a statistically valid approximation of their worth. Pretty much every single holding loses value. This is another effect of the honor devaluation + a constant that we saw in Part 2. What we saw there was that if partner bid a 5+ suit, we lost HCP in all of our outside suits, but we added a constant. A good approximation was that we subtract 1/3 of all our HCP outside of partner’s suit, but we add a constant of 3 points (4 for TSP). This was because partner is more likely to be unbalanced than an average hand and so high cards become less important while shape becomes more important. Weak hands become stronger while strong hands become weaker. I’ve looked into this effect in a little more detail and found that when partner promises a balanced hand, the opposite is true. In that case our HCP actually become worth more than they did before. This overall effect of the changing weight of honor cards depending on the balanced/unbalanced nature of the other hands is going to need more investigation. It might be the subject of Part 5 of this series. At the table, we’ve generally just assigned a constant value to high cards and gotten by, but in reality, they change a lot. We saw that when partner has a 5+ suit, points outside his suit lose 1/3 of their value (multiply by 0.67). What’s the factor when the opponents bid? For honors outside their suit it actually gets multiplied by the same number (0.67)! And again we add the constant of 3 points (4 for TSP). It doesn’t matter much if it was RHO or LHO and all holdings devalue approximately by this same factor of 0.67. Honors in the opponent’s suit are trickier. The average multiplier is 0.90 for RHO and 0.81 for LHO. But while in the other cases almost all cards were devalued by the same factor, when the opponents bid, Aces aren’t devalued as much and there are some other holding combinations that defy straight factoring. Also longer suits tend to devalue more. So Kxxx will lose more value than Kx. If we ignore this and just multiply by this factor, we’d get the following additional adjustments: [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] Tricks [space] [space] [space] MWC [space] [space] TSP [space] [space] [space] [space] RHO [space] [space]LHO [space] RHO LHO RHO LHO x [space] [space] [space] 0.00 [space] 0.00 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 T [space] [space] [space]-0.01 [space]-0.05 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 J [space] [space] [space]-0.05 [space]-0.02 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Q [space] [space] [space]-0.06 [space]-0.03 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 K [space] [space] [space]-0.10 [space]-0.05 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 A [space] [space] [space] 0.09 [space] 0.18 [space] 0 [space] 1 [space] 0 [space] 1 xx [space] [space] [space]0.00 [space] 0.00 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Tx [space] [space] -0.02 [space]-0.02 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Jx [space] [space] -0.02 [space]-0.05 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 JT [space] [space] -0.09 [space]-0.10 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Qx [space] [space] -0.05 [space]-0.09 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 QT [space] [space] -0.05 [space]-0.13 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 QJ [space] [space] -0.16 [space]-0.10 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 Kx [space] [space] [space]0.07 [space]-0.05 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 KT [space] [space] -0.02 [space]-0.12 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 KJ [space] [space] [space]0.03 [space]-0.03 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 KQ [space] [space] -0.10 [space]-0.04 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Ax [space] [space] [space]0.12 [space] 0.15 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 1 [space] 1 AT [space] [space] [space]0.12 [space] 0.13 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 1 [space] 1 AJ [space] [space] [space]0.13 [space] 0.13 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 1 [space] 1 AQ [space] [space] [space]0.21 [space] 0.11 [space] 1 [space] 0 [space] 1 [space] 0 AK [space] [space] [space]0.09 [space] 0.25 [space] 0 [space] 1 [space] 0 [space] 1 xxx [space] [space] 0.00 [space] 0.00 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Txx [space] [space]-0.03 [space]-0.07 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Jxx [space] [space]-0.05 [space]-0.11 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 JTx [space] [space]-0.12 [space]-0.11 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 Qxx [space] [space]-0.06 [space]-0.16 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 QTx [space] [space]-0.14 [space]-0.19 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 QJx [space] [space]-0.16 [space]-0.18 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 QJT [space] [space]-0.20 [space]-0.21 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 Kxx [space] [space] 0.03 [space]-0.13 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 KTx [space] [space]-0.04 [space]-0.18 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 KJx [space] [space]-0.02 [space]-0.19 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 KJT [space] [space]-0.02 [space]-0.12 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 Axx [space] [space] 0.09 [space] 0.18 [space] 0 [space] 1 [space] 0 [space] 1 KQx [space] [space]-0.13 [space]-0.12 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 ATx [space] [space] 0.09 [space] 0.10 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 KQT [space] [space]-0.02 [space]-0.15 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 KQJ [space] [space]-0.24 [space]-0.04 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 AJx [space] [space] 0.12 [space] 0.02 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 AJT [space] [space] 0.05 [space] 0.01 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 AQx [space] [space] 0.15 [space] 0.05 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 1 [space] 0 AQT [space] [space] 0.27 [space]-0.05 [space] 1 [space] 0 [space] 1 [space] 0 AQJ [space] [space] 0.14 [space] 0.02 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 1 [space] 0 AKx [space] [space] 0.07 [space] 0.19 [space] 0 [space] 1 [space] 0 [space] 1 AKT [space] [space] 0.10 [space] 0.11 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 AKJ [space] [space] 0.14 [space] 0.14 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 1 [space] 1 AKQ [space] [space]-0.01 [space] 0.02 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 xxxx [space] [space]0.00 [space] 0.00 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Txxx [space] [space]0.01 [space]-0.07 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Jxxx [space] -0.08 [space]-0.05 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 JTxx [space] -0.13 [space]-0.02 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 Qxxx [space] -0.09 [space]-0.10 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 QTxx [space] -0.10 [space]-0.14 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 QJxx [space] -0.15 [space]-0.15 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 QJTx [space] -0.24 [space]-0.07 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 Kxxx [space] -0.06 [space]-0.16 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 KTxx [space] -0.08 [space]-0.21 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 KJxx [space] -0.10 [space]-0.28 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 KJTx [space] -0.14 [space]-0.23 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 Axxx [space] [space]0.04 [space] 0.13 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 1 KQxx [space] -0.21 [space]-0.18 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 ATxx [space] [space]0.03 [space] 0.07 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 KQTx [space] -0.26 [space]-0.16 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 KQJx [space] -0.25 [space]-0.15 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 KQJT [space] -0.14 [space]-0.08 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 AJxx [space] -0.02 [space] 0.01 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 AJTx [space] -0.05 [space]-0.02 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 AQxx [space] [space]0.06 [space] 0.02 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 AQTx [space] [space]0.10 [space] 0.03 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 AQJx [space] -0.05 [space] 0.07 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 AKxx [space] -0.07 [space] 0.14 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 1 AQJT [space] -0.23 [space]-0.05 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 AKTx [space] -0.09 [space] 0.11 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 AKJx [space] -0.11 [space] 0.06 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 AKJT [space] -0.12 [space] 0.16 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 1 AKQx [space] -0.19 [space] 0.12 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 1 AKQT [space] -0.06 [space]-0.09 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 AKQJ [space] -0.06 [space]-0.26 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 xxxxx [space] 0.00 [space] 0.00 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Txxxx [space]-0.02 [space]-0.01 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Jxxxx [space] 0.03 [space]-0.02 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 JTxxx [space]-0.02 [space]-0.03 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 Qxxxx [space]-0.08 [space]-0.17 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 QTxxx [space]-0.05 [space]-0.08 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 QJxxx [space]-0.11 [space]-0.13 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 QJTxx [space]-0.16 [space]-0.04 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 Kxxxx [space]-0.17 [space]-0.15 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 KTxxx [space]-0.14 [space]-0.23 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 KJxxx [space]-0.19 [space]-0.31 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 KJTxx [space]-0.26 [space]-0.15 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space]-1 Axxxx [space]-0.03 [space] 0.12 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 1 KQxxx [space]-0.26 [space]-0.21 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 KQTxx [space]-0.41 [space]-0.29 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-2 [space]-1 ATxxx [space] 0.07 [space] 0.06 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 KQJxx [space]-0.31 [space]-0.25 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 KQJTx [space]-0.24 [space]-0.30 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 [space]-1 AJxxx [space]-0.06 [space]-0.01 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 AJTxx [space]-0.03 [space] 0.00 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 AQxxx [space] 0.03 [space]-0.15 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 AQTxx [space] 0.01 [space]-0.12 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 AQJxx [space] 0.02 [space]-0.16 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 AKxxx [space]-0.16 [space] 0.02 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 AQJTx [space]-0.13 [space] 0.25 [space] 0 [space] 1 [space]-1 [space] 1 AKTxx [space]-0.12 [space]-0.22 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 AKJxx [space]-0.22 [space]-0.01 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 AKJTx [space]-0.21 [space]-0.08 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 AKQxx [space]-0.26 [space]-0.06 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 AKQTx [space]-0.14 [space]-0.06 [space] 0 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 AKQJx [space]-0.24 [space] 0.06 [space]-1 [space] 0 [space]-1 [space] 0 AKQJT [space] 0.41 [space] 0.33 [space] 1 [space] 1 [space] 2 [space] 1 So what can we get from this? I’m not sure. :rolleyes: It’s a lot more complicated than simple rules can accommodate. But seriously, I’m trying to get a feel for the actual quantitative size of adjustments that good card players make all the time. I’m not sure that a lot of us are really making enough adjustments. When your LHO opens 1♠, these two hands become about the same strength: - [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]Kxxxx xxxxx [space] [space] vs. [space] [space]Kxx xxxx [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] QJT xxxx [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] KT Are you adjusting enough?

I might be wrong about this, but I think the current legality is: encrypted bids = legal encrypted leads = legal encrypted signals = illegal

Comment 3: Don't play Flannery