FelicityR

The statistics for New Zealand are not comparable to the UK, Italy or Spain. It's a completely separate country divided into two islands, which will help slow the spread. Yes, I agree (as I read this also on another forum post) that New Zealand did act swiftly with regard to coronavirus, but that does not tell the whole story. Approximately, NZ is 103,500 square miles, with a population of 4.7 million and just 10 towns/cities over 125,000 residents. UK is 93,500 square miles, with a population of nearly 68 million, and has over 150 towns and cities over 125,000 residents. Obviously it would be a lot more difficult to contain a contagion where people are living in closer proximity.

Pass, pass, pass. It's not beyond the realms of possibly that partner has overcalled on a four card suit here (though personally I always like my partner to have a five+ card one when I am a passed hand.) Your hand probably has no entry, no ruffing value and it's too balanced to be any good. If there is any hand where I wouldn't use The Law of Total Tricks this is it. Partner could well be encouraged to bid higher if the opponents compete further, possibly to 3♦ (as by inference there is unlikely to be a ♠ fit.) And, I don't think partner would be best pleased with me if I put down this selection of tramtickets should he/she declare, especially if the contract is X'ed.

Yes, in total agreement with you there, Hrothgar. Just as an aside from comments on covid-19, I found this extract from Boris Johnson's Wikipedia entry (that I was reading this morning) when he was London mayor. In 2015, Johnson criticised then-presidential candidate Donald Trump's false comments that there were no-go zones in London governed by shariah and inaccessible for non-Muslims. Johnson said that Trump was "betraying a quite stupefying ignorance that makes him, frankly, unfit to hold the office of president of the United States", becoming the first senior politician in the UK to declare Trump unfit for office (but rejecting calls for him to be banned from the country). Johnson also added that he "would invite [Trump] to come and see the whole of London and take him round the city except I wouldn't want to expose Londoners to any unnecessary risk of meeting Donald Trump." He later called Trump's comments "ill informed" and "complete and utter nonsense", adding that "the only reason I wouldn't go to some parts of New York is the real risk of meeting Donald Trump". In 2016, he said he was "genuinely worried that he could become president", telling ITV's Tom Bradby of one moment where he was mistaken for Trump in New York as "one of the worst moments" of his life. How times change...

Leaving party politics aside for one moment, I sincerely hope - and I am sure all BBO members will agree, too - that our Prime Minster Boris Johnson recovers swiftly from his illness and once again leads our ravaged country through this epidemic. I have a feeling that his own deeply personal experience of this crisis will augur well for future generations. 'Ravaged' does not seem too strong a word to use as there are going to be many despairing people after this crisis. People who have lost loved ones, people who have seen their lives changed forever; people who have seen their dreams and aspirations shattered; people who have slipped deeper in debt; people who have seen their businesses go under, businesses that might have taken many years to establish. This pandemic has touched us all on some level.

As much as I agree with this, and in an earlier post I said that only 37% of doctors from various countries who had treated covid-19 patients agree that hydroxychloroquine has any beneficial effect in treating coronavirus and it's hardly 'a shining endorsement', I believe you have to look beyond that. In essence the medical profession is clutching at straws to treat covid-19 cases because there were no medical protocols or list of medications available to treat covid-19 as this is a new illness. And whilst SARS, MERS, and covid-19 are similar, it would seem sensible to use drugs to treat SARS and MERS as the first line of defence against covid-19, but it is not as simple as that. There are so many other factors to take into consideration before administering any medication, and what may be suitable for one person may not be suitable for another. One factor in hydroxychloroquine's favour is that it has been around for 50 years, and whilst like every other drug it does have side effects, most of the side effects are mild. The problems usually occur when you use two or more drugs in tandem.

Yes, I agree, there are so many different angles to explore in respect of exponential growth and when the UK figures finally 'flatten the curve'. I don't believe for one minute that the UK would have put in a contingency of building field hospitals or requisitioning private hospitals if they didn't think that there would be far more critical cases. I cannot tell you how many 'new' critical care hospitals are in this contingency, but every day in the UK news it appears that other towns and cities beyond London (4000 beds) are gearing themselves ready for increased numbers. The UK figures do not include people such as the elderly in care and nursing homes who have died but have not been tested. They are part of the statistics, too. It is truly ironic that the people who care for these people are actually spreading the disease because testing in the UK has been so lax. Then there are probably other vulnerable people in the community who get visited for shopping, cleaning, etc, and have died as a result of covid-19. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if our nation's final tally, if everyone was taken into consideration, will be nearly as bad as Italy's. And even if it isn't, too many people have died as a result of not taking preventative measures earlier.

It's a nobel gesture, as always by Bill Gates, the problem is vaccines take time to develop and test. Another different virus will need another vaccine. A covid-19 vaccine will at least give us the re-assurance that another covid-19 outbreak will not be as disastrous as this one. But I doubt, even if a vaccine could be developed and tested within the next few months, it's unlikely it will have any effect on this outbreak which will have to run its course. The Ebola vaccine took five years to develop (2019) from the most serious outbreak in 2014 which lasted two years in Africa. Bill Gates helped to fund this, too.

It is not age discriminatory either. I read about two separate incidents where a teenager rolled her eyes when questioned about her social distancing, and an elderly lady said, when asked politely to move away, "It's all rubbish." Thankfully, where I live most people have taken the concept of social distancing seriously but, yes, it's the stupid 5% of the population that will prolong this outbreak by their heads-in-the-sand, moronic, or 'I'm so fit and healthy, it's only the flu, I'm never going to die young" approach. True, but sad.

Yes, John, it's a race against time to develop drugs, and a race against time to be tested and treated with any drug being used to treat covid-19. Testing in the UK has been sub-standard, and even if tests are completed it takes more than a few days for the results to appear, and that can make the difference between being just symptomatic, to being sick and at an advanced stage where any treatment is effectively palliative, except in the rare cases where recovery is virtually a miracle. Just to give you an idea of what's happening pharmaceutically with covid-19 therapies, the following gives you an idea of how pharma/biotech companies have responded. https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/analysis/coronavirus-mers-cov-drugs

Here's an interesting article I found online this morning whilst reading up on the virus. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8184259/Malaria-drug-hydroxychloroquine-effective-coronavirus-treatment-currently-available.html Whilst just over a third (37%) is hardly a shining endorsement, the statistics may be distorted because some countries and physicians haven't been using the drug as the primary medicine to combat covid-19. There are obviously many other factors to take into consideration beyond this, but it does seem that recovery from the illness could be dependent on where you live in the world.

I see that you play 2/1 so I would guess a basic (vanilla) 2/1 auction would go 1♠ - 2♦ - 2♠ - 3♦ - 3♠ or 3NT - 4♦ - 4♥ (cue bid) - 4♠ (cue bid) - 5♣ (cue bid) - 6♦ Even though the hand is a misfit, the North hand is huge in terms of playing strength. The ♦ suit is nearly self-sufficient in itself. There are plenty of hands I can envisage, even though South is a minimum opener where 6♦ is a sound contract. I believe that with the cards shown, 6♦ has over a 60% chance of making. It would be very unlucky to find South with a hand where 6♦ has no chance. The other consideration is that with a long suit the opponents will have to find discards and that may lead to various squeeze or endplay possibilities.

Thank you for the link. (It does works if you cut and paste it into your browser in full) And, no, I didn't know about the hyperinflammation aspect. This article I found interesting about Senegal https://ewn.co.za/2020/04/02/senegal-says-hydroxychloroquine-virus-treatment-is-promising The last paragraph makes interesting reading: The European Medicine Agency warned on Wednesday that neither chloroquine nor hydroxychloroquine should be used to treat COVID-19 cases, except for clinical trials or in the event of a "national emergency." Given the severity of the illness, the numbers that have already been tested positive, and the numbers that have died, I wonder what they constitute as a 'national emergency'?

The odd thing is why so many players have avoided, or had little interest, playing online in the first instance before the virus lockdown. But yes, BBO have made a wonderful effect to accommodate the extra players so quickly. The only slight downside I have found is that it's sometimes difficult to log on to the forums, but then again with so many extra people using the internet from home, many other websites are experiencing similar problems.

This is what I put in a previous post, Winston. Possibly, and this is only a theory, people who have travelled and had vaccines for other illnesses like dengue fever, malaria, yellow fever, etc. have some advantage of fighting this illness than people who haven't. The reason I say this is that I now know of one person (a friend) who has had coronavirus, but only very mild symptoms, after returning from Asia. He is over 60, not 100% healthy, but he has travelled the world extensively, especially in Asia. Hydroxychloroquine is a malaria tablet. Whether Hydroxychloroquine would work wholesale is open to question, because malaria is neither a viral or bacterial disease: malaria is caused by a tiny parasite. Donald Trump previously hyped (hydroxy)chloroquine as a game-changer. However, hydroxychloroquine is also used for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis as a disease modifying drug, where it supresses the immune system. Having a strong immune system, not one that has been compromised by ill-health, old age, or supressed by medication, is essential to fight any bacterial or viral illness, including covid-19.

I was reading an article this morning about Chinese coronavirus cases, and quite a few people test positive but display virtually no symptoms, thus being asymptomatic. As I said in a previous post, I am still convinced there's some other factor other than age and (ill) health - though these are the primary ones - that result in either an asymptomatic or a severe reaction to the virus. Until the medical world discover what mechanism makes covid-19 so deadly for some, or just mild for others, we should all keep safe until this pandemic is finally over.

The positive rate in the UK remains at 14%, with over 25,000 positive now, but yesterday we had a huge spike in the number of deaths (+27%) with 381 people sadly succumbing to this illness. 1,781 have now died. Perhaps, in two weeks time, we will finally know whether the lockdown in the UK, and the strict social distancing and non-socialising measures in place have been effective. Our Prime Minster, Boris Johnson, warned yesterday the coronavirus epidemic will 'get worse before it will get better'. It's a grim prediction, but I believe it is better to be honest. Here in the UK, the military have been instrumental in constructing the field hospitals very quickly that will take newer coronavirus cases. Already there's a remit that the worst cases, and those more at risk, will be treated in existing National Health Service hospitals, and that the less severe will be treated in the field hospitals.

Thank you, John, for detailing at length the US response. From what I am reading on this side of the Atlantic, I agree, too, that the US response has been less than satisfactory. And Donald Trump's comments and (lack of) actions were truly unhelpful. And yes, having the resources to test the whole of the American population is a logistical nightmare. Whilst I do not support Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party, I have to say that their response in the latter stages has been excellent, and the spirit of the British people has shone through, many volunteering to distribute grocery supplies or help the National Health Service. And the doctors and nurses tirelessly working within the NHS have been magnificent.

I don't believe that 'political point scoring' by comparing one country's covid-19 statistics with another will actually help anyone. We all know that Italy's and Spain's statistics are as honest as can be (sadly); and the UK's are honest but potentially flawed as until recently there was not widespread testing in this country. As Winstonm said, social distancing seems the best way to contain the spread of the contagion. And widespread testing proves extra security. Here in the UK, it seems (and this is a very early indication) that the lockdown measures introduced just over a week ago, with the emphasis on social distancing are having some effect: a smaller percentage number tested positive for covid-19, and a smaller percentage have died, though that is only for the last three days. But that can change... What annoys me more is world leaders ignoring the fact that this is a serious pandemic and trying to sweep it under the carpet. The Belarus president has reportedly said vodka and saunas will stop you getting coronavirus, and the Brazilian president is also in denial. Please wake up! The British and American responses to covid-19 may have not been perfect, but at least both administrations are taking this seriously now. But, at the end of the day, it's up to the people in the country ultimately to take responsibility from the guidance they have been issued by their respective governments.

Wear a mask, an N95 mask preferably and a scarf over it. Or alternatively a dust mask with a basic N95 medical mask inside. Doubling up your facial protection just makes sense given the current environment. The general public should be reasonably protected if they do this, practice social distancing, and keep washing their hands regularly, especially after coming indoors from outside. Too many health professionals, including over 50 doctors in Italy (I read yesterday) have died, and whilst they are on the frontline of treating this illness, it just shows how easily the virus is transmitted, despite many of the health professionals having the right equipment to shield themselves from the virus. And yes, I have also read about a lack of basic equipment in some hospitals, too.

Surprisingly, in the UK 'experts' - I use that term very, very loosely - expect the epidemic to peak next Sunday, April 5th. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/coronavirus-outbreak-peak-could-next-21769853 I am not so convinced. They used the Chinese model to base those figures. In the UK we are, in most respects, 2 weeks behind Italy. Like Italy, we are a European country with a similar population distribution, but upside down by location. Only a difference of just over 10% in population numbers, too. The statistics taken from Wikipedia bear this out (Italy first): First death 21/2/2020, 5/3/2020; 1000 cases 29/2/2020, 14/3/2020; 1000 deaths 12/3/2020, estimated 28/3/2020; 10,000 cases 10/3/2020, 26/3/2020, etc. The biggest difference is that parts of Italy were first put under quarantine on the 22nd February, whereas in the UK that happened on the 23rd March. That is four weeks, not two. The outbreak hit some large towns in Italy, but the epicentre of the outbreak in the UK is London and Birmingham, the two largest cities. I honestly cannot see the lockdown being relaxed in 2 weeks time. Common sense just says to me that this is going to on for months, perhaps over 3 months before restrictions are lifted. That's not being pessimistic, but realist. What do you think? I'm always interested in other people's views.

A medical mask, or for that matter any mask covering the mouth and nose, even a scarf - if you cannot get or make a mask - is a semiotic way of showing that you are taking this covid-19 epidemic seriously. I'm still surprised at how many people are still walking around outside without one. They're easy enough to order online, and the sellers I used despatched them quickly. They are not a guarantee that you won't be infected with covid-19, but they are a form of protection, and it's better to have some protection than none at all. And, if you have the covid-19 virus, you are also less likely to pass it on to someone else if you wear a mask. Edit: This academic article from Scientific American I found a very interesting read. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/

I am sorry to hear that, Tom. I also had a situation where my best friend's sibling in Ireland needs to be transferred from one hospital to another to have a major operation (cancer, too) and their transfer has been delayed, as before they can go they need evidence that the patient hasn't got covid-19. The Irish viral testing service has been inundated with tests and is now working 24 hours around the clock. However, given the seriousness of the operation, they have made every effect to fast track it. Thankfully, it looks like the operation will go ahead now. But it has been extremely worrying time for my friend who has had to wait a few extra days, many in tears.

Yes, John, that is a big factor in the whole coronavirus equation, too. Just over a week ago the UK government asked non-ventilator manufacturing companies to consider making additional ventilators. See this link from the BBC. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-51909812 Edit: This another interesting academic article (that I read this morning) from the Financial Times about covid-19 effectively saying half the UK have been infected. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-uk-population-—-oxford-study/ar-BB11DVwS?li=BBoPWjQ

I agree, Tom. My wording was not quite right. But it's bad enough that in London they expect to have up to another 4000 cases where urgent medical treatment is necessary. Assuming - and this is only an assumption - that 5% of people infected need hospitalisation, that says there will be 80,000 new cases in London alone. That's more than in the whole of Italy since the outbreak began. On a normal day up to 2 million Londoners use the Underground alone. Obviously numbers have dwindled significantly over the past month. But so many people in the UK, until the Government's lockdown 2 days ago, have not adhered to the social distancing rules in place. And I do appreciate it is difficult trying to hold down a job and needing to use public transport to get to work (as I stated in a previous post.) I was actually going to put something along the lines of (in my previous post) "If the government needs a field hospital of 4000 beds in London, then how bad is this epidemic going to get?" But decided against it as that would be scaremongering. But you are right, the actual 'worst case scenario' could be horrifying to even think about. Let's hope for the sake of everyone in the world that finally there is light at the end of the tunnel. I read this article this morning on my computer. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/province-at-epicentre-of-coronavirus-outbreak-lifts-restrictions-as-china-reports-no-new-virus-cases/ar-BB11F9Ne?ocid=spartandhp There may be an end in sight. Thankfully. Though we all have to accept that beyond China sadly there will be many more deaths until this covid-19 outbreak is finally controlled.

Here in the UK the Government is preparing for the worst case scenario by converting London's Excel centre into a 4000 bed field hospital, specifically for coronavirus cases. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/nhs-plans-to-turn-excel-centre-into-coronavirus-hospital That is alarming. The epicentre of the epidemic is in London, and if I were a Londoner I would be very scared knowing that they have assigned a contingency plan that involves creating such a large facility to deal with the next few weeks, maybe months, of covid-19.