eyhung

Correct, I reran the sim fixing the responder's hand to the OP's hand, and the chance of opener holding exactly 4 diamonds went up from 25% to 28.6%.

No hand has 5 spades and 5 diamonds. The opening bids are quite well-tested. And yes, there are hands where opener has 6 diamonds and 5 spades -- in fact any hand with 5-6 in the pointed suits, and does not qualifiy for 2♣ qualifies as a 1♦ opener. "A lot of people" may open 1♠ with 5-6 in the pointed suits, but a lot of people voted for [controversial politician of your choice]. Suffice to say, I don't agree with them. With the rebid being 1♠, I don't think there are many hands that should go out of their way to distort the suit lengths by opening 1S, so all 5-6 spade diamond hands open 1♦. In any case, we are splitting hairs with these definitions. As long as you acknowledge that the constraints are in the ballpark of a reasonable 1♦ opening bid style, 25% and 60% are far apart. Once you realize that opener must hold at least 4 diamonds because of the failure to raise hearts, and most hands with 4 diamonds do not rebid 1♠ thanks to notrump being a higher priority, you will understand that 25% is a far better estimate than 60%. This makes more sense to me as well -- I tend NOT to rebid 1♠ even with weak notrumps that qualify, so it's nice to see that my style only "costs" me a low percentage of the time (less than 25%, since I'd also rebid 1♠ with 4144.)

Throwing out 18-19 balanced gives around 25-26% hands with 4 diamonds.

I ran a sim using my definition for a 1D opener, 1H response and passes by the opponents, and threw out all hands with 4+ hearts and 0-3 spades in the opener. Over 100000 hands that fit these criteria, the # of times opener held 4 diamonds was 35732, or 35.73%. Removing the constraints on the enemy hands, reduces the chance of opener holding 4 diamonds to 31.42%. NOTE: This is without eliminating the balanced 18-19 HCP hands -- so in practice the chance of opener holding 4 diamonds is lower. I will rerun my sim eliminating the hands that would rebid 2NT.

My feeling is that there are some hands where playing coded leads will help the defense, but there are more hands where they will help the declarer. If you play against poor declarers who don't bother to look at your carding conventions or are incapable of using the information against you, go ahead and use them. Otherwise I recommend playing standard leads -- most of the top pairs I see do not use coded leads or odd/even discards.

I think you are grossly overestimating the downside of bidding. It's true that there are some pathological layouts where you will regret having reopened the bidding. But I think it's ridiculously anti-percentage to pass it out in 1S when you are seven-five, at favorable vul so the opponents can't save effectively, and you hold 14 of the working 24 HCP.

Agree with Josh's plan -- hard to see that the bidding will die when you hold 1 major-suit card (and if it does, it's likely a good stop in a misfit). It is like ju-jitsu, you are using the opponents and their majors against them to gain a "forcing" natural bid.

An interesting trick that I just learned about from Lawrence's updated Overcalls book is to play that after : 2M (Dbl) 3M Double = asks partner to bid 3NT with a stopper, or to do something smart without one. You lose the responsive double for the minors, but that is already of dubious value -- some experts don't even play responsive doubles here. That might help you on the actual hand -- the problem is that Ax is not a good solo stopper when the opponents bid-and-raise because you can't hold up to cut communications (unless you have 8 fast tricks on the side). But it should be ok if partner has Kx. So now you can play 3NT when partner has a 2nd stopper, and avoid it when he doesn't, and get some input as to the best strain (he'll probably show a good heart suit, for example, if the 4-3 Moysian has play). That seems like a reasonable outcome.

My comment was not regarding the analysis, but the fact that passing, giving E/W a free run, often led E/W into bigger trouble than doubling, according to the analysis of the three people listed. Maybe pass is better than double, but I certainly didn't like some of the constructive auctions given by those forum posters which led to pass being rated better.

I find it ironic that the best thing to do against the majority of BBO forums posters is to let them get into trouble using their own constructive methods.

I would say almost any post where Justin writes more than 3 lines rates to be far more helpful than many of the posts on here. I am impressed he has the time and willingness to share. Maybe your ego is wounded because your arguments were repeatedly and summarily dismissed with sarcastic one-liners, but if your goal is to improve, I think it's best to check your ego in at the door and listen. I think the following was the most important lesson I've learned from here, which was taken from the 2/1 Gitleman (sic) thread.

2 top diamonds, diamond ruff, top club, slow spade.

I think the standard definition of mixed raise is : 7-9(bad 10) support points(HCP + shortness 1/3/5), 4 trumps, 6-9 HCP. That is, a hand worth just a simple raise except that it holds 4 trump, and one that wouldn't fall into a preemptive raise (most 5 HCP hands with a singleton can preempt). So if you evaluate this as 11, it's too good to be called a "mixed" raise. I evaluate it as worth a limit raise, but I find Justin's idea of merely blasting game intriguing.

I'd open it 1S. The suit isn't that great and you have significant defense on the side. So even though one personally might not open it 1S, 1S is certainly within the realm of possibility.

I hadn't seen the 5th thread linked by hotShot before, that's a great thread with results that correspond to some suspicions I had formulated but hadn't seen verified anywhere else. Thumbs up!

Certainly reasonable -- how would you describe the parameters for a (heavy) 4S open?

So do you want me to model it based on expert-Josh judgement or random bridge player? I can add a deduction of 1 point for a stiff king/queen/jack into my model. But I think there are plenty of people who would open #17, it's certainly not out of line especially since the stiff queen is in hearts (seriously annoying the opponents with your 1S open).

They're missing on mine as well, so I suspect they're missing on everyone's. Justin, ever thought about going back and linking the suit symbols up, or just using SHDC? This is one of the best articles you wrote because it covers an area that doesn't see much press, it would be a shame to have it remain in this state.

Hands now numbered.

1♠ parameters: 5+ spades, spades longest suit or tied for longest, rule of 20, 2 quick tricks, will not be 5332 with 15-17 HCP or 20-21 HCP. Maximum is 21 HCP.

Ask and ye shall receive. I already have a reasonable model for a 1S opener in my library, so it was child's play for me to create 30 hands fixing one hand as the OP's hand and giving RHO a 1S opener. Let the analysis begin! (1) S: 86543 H: 875 D: AK C: J32 S: 9 S: KQJT2 H: K H: QJ96 D: J9873 D: 52 C: KT9864 C: A7 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (2) S: 862 H: 87 D: J8753 C: A63 S: Q9 S: KJT543 H: J5 H: KQ96 D: A2 D: K9 C: KT98742 C: J S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (3) S: Q5 H: KJ75 D: J975 C: T93 S: 8643 S: KJT92 H: 6 H: Q98 D: 2 D: AK83 C: KJ87642 C: A S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (4) S: J6 H: KQ7 D: K72 C: JT963 S: Q983 S: KT542 H: J985 H: 6 D: AJ53 D: 98 C: 8 C: AK742 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (5) S: KJ8 H: 6 D: KJ93 C: JT843 S: T9 S: Q65432 H: J9875 H: KQ D: 852 D: A7 C: A97 C: K62 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (6) S: K52 H: 765 D: 93 C: AK762 S: 843 S: QJT96 H: KQJ98 H: --- D: J85 D: AK72 C: 98 C: JT43 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (7) S: T92 H: K975 D: J987 C: KT S: 43 S: KQJ865 H: J8 H: Q6 D: 32 D: AK5 C: A976432 C: J8 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (8) S: KQ42 H: K86 D: 8 C: KJT92 S: 96 S: JT853 H: 5 H: QJ97 D: K97532 D: AJ C: 8763 C: A4 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (9) S: KT H: 975 D: K987 C: 8764 S: 654 S: QJ9832 H: J8 H: KQ6 D: A32 D: J5 C: KJT92 C: A3 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (10) S: 94 H: KQJ986 D: J C: AT74 S: J852 S: KQT63 H: 7 H: 5 D: A9873 D: K52 C: 983 C: KJ62 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (11) S: JT H: QJ86 D: KJ32 C: 982 S: K542 S: Q9863 H: 5 H: K97 D: 87 D: A95 C: KJT763 C: A4 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (12) S: T3 H: Q95 D: K732 C: JT98 S: QJ S: K986542 H: K876 H: J D: J85 D: A9 C: A764 C: K32 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (13) S: 84 H: J76 D: J9 C: AJT743 S: Q9 S: KJT6532 H: 95 H: KQ8 D: A875 D: K32 C: K9862 C: --- S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (14) S: Q8643 H: Q8 D: 98 C: K932 S: 5 S: KJT92 H: J65 H: K97 D: AKJ532 D: 7 C: T74 C: AJ86 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (15) S: 63 H: Q976 D: A53 C: J972 S: T984 S: KQJ52 H: J8 H: K5 D: K972 D: J8 C: A86 C: KT43 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (16) S: 9 H: J987 D: J982 C: KJ63 S: KT2 S: QJ86543 H: KQ5 H: 6 D: 753 D: AK C: A982 C: T74 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (17) S: 653 H: J5 D: J97 C: KJT83 S: JT9 S: KQ842 H: K9876 H: Q D: K5 D: A832 C: A76 C: 942 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (18) S: KQ9 H: KQJ5 D: 972 C: 973 S: J2 S: T86543 H: 986 H: 7 D: KJ853 D: A C: T42 C: AKJ86 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (19) S: 53 H: K5 D: K3 C: AKT8743 S: 9642 S: KQJT8 H: QJ98 H: 76 D: J5 D: A9872 C: 962 C: J S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (20) S: QT82 H: Q D: K9 C: AJT963 S: K6 S: J9543 H: 865 H: KJ97 D: J8532 D: A7 C: 874 C: K2 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (21) S: JT2 H: 75 D: 97 C: AKJT32 S: Q85 S: K9643 H: K98 H: QJ6 D: J8532 D: AK C: 94 C: 876 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (22) S: 9632 H: QJ87 D: 73 C: 643 S: T4 S: KQJ85 H: 96 H: K5 D: K952 D: AJ8 C: AJ987 C: KT2 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (23) S: T32 H: 87 D: J9853 C: A97 S: 94 S: KQJ865 H: QJ5 H: K96 D: K2 D: A7 C: JT6432 C: K8 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (24) S: K92 H: QJ875 D: AKJ2 C: 3 S: Q86 S: JT543 H: 96 H: K D: 983 D: 75 C: J8762 C: AKT94 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (25) S: J65 H: 8765 D: K975 C: J6 S: QT9 S: K8432 H: QJ9 H: K D: J83 D: A2 C: 8742 C: AKT93 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (26) S: T643 H: Q98 D: 932 C: A43 S: J9 S: KQ852 H: KJ7 H: 65 D: 875 D: AKJ C: T8762 C: KJ9 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (27) S: T H: 9865 D: A9752 C: KJ4 S: 953 S: KQJ8642 H: QJ7 H: K D: K8 D: J3 C: T8762 C: A93 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (28) S: JT65 H: J9 D: 72 C: A9872 S: 9 S: KQ8432 H: K8765 H: Q D: 983 D: AKJ5 C: JT64 C: K3 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (29) S: Q H: QJ986 D: AJ95 C: 943 S: J864 S: KT9532 H: 75 H: K D: 732 D: K8 C: JT82 C: AK76 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (30) S: J862 H: J96 D: KJ5 C: J76 S: T3 S: KQ954 H: K87 H: Q5 D: 2 D: A9873 C: AKT9832 C: 4 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 --------------------------

My favorite is 2/1 Gitleman (sic) http://forums.bridgebase.com/index.php?sho...116&hl=gitleman

Agree, 2♣ is standout action here. Really hate pass -- neither side is vulnerable at MP, where the side who declares an undoubled partial almost always ends up doing well, and you are asking to get blown out of the auction when LHO raises to 2♠ or rebids 1NT. Don't like 1NT, you have no spots and your stoppers rate to be flimsy given the positioning of your high cards.

2♠. Either pass or 2♠ could be right, but if wrong, pass is final, while if 2♠ is wrong, something good may yet still happen. For example, sometimes LHO belatedly raises to 3♦ with Hx because he's not looking at spade length, or because he felt his hand wasn't good enough for a direct 3♦ raise. Also, in general I think it's a bad idea to try to penalize your opponents with lousy trumps before you have exhausted the possibilities of a finding an 8-card major-suit fit. When partner has 4 spades, I expect doubling 2♦ to be wrong. 2♠ should score reasonably well and 2♦ is unlikely to go for more than 200. Bidding 2♠ also opens up the possibility of playing 3♦-X.

One clarification: in this situation I would play RHO to have erred because there was a reason for him to lead low from AQx at trick 2 (maybe the K is doubleton in declarer's hand and he wants to leave his partner an exit in clubs). But I'm assuming RHO erred not because I think he's stupid, but because I think he misjudged the situation. Also, to assume the opposite, that RHO held AQxx, requires him to be a genius.