VM1973

So if partner opens 1NT (15-17) NV IMPs and you hold: AKQJ xxx xxx xxx What do you bid as opposed to: Axxx Kxx Qxx Jxx

It's just that normally after N plays E, but West shows on top... and I'm not sure if that should be West on bottom or East on top and so I'm confused. Sorry.

I cannot follow the play. I think the E and W must be reversed or something.

I'll bid 1♦ and see how it goes. For sure if my LHO bids 1♥ or 1♠ I'm going to take a dim view of the value of the holdings in that suit. On the other hand, if it goes 1♦-P-1♠-P I would probably bid 3♦. I don't believe in opening 1NT 14-18 because of subjective non-quantifiable feel-of-the-hand considerations. At any rate, if anything this hand should be downgraded.

How can you know (without seeing your partner's hand) if 3NT will make?

Wikipedia has the answers to your questions: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Losing-Trick_Count#Refinements Edit: Furthermore, I don't see how Kxx is of any offensive value in your hand. With the preempter known to have 7, and you have 3, that's 10. So if partner has a stiff for sure your king is wasted. And if partner has xx then the preempter's partner will have a stiff so it will go ♣A, and club ruffed.

So basically in your world: AKQJ xx xxxx xxx is as good as AKxx xx AKxx xxx and as good as Axxx Ax Axxx Axx because all have 4 fast winners?

Well 2♠ is the bid that is more likely to get a 2nd peep out of partner and anyway if you're in a 4-3 fit the extra strength will help. I believe 2♠+2 scores 110 whereas 3♣+3 scores the same.

I believe that the chance of getting a 10-card suit is low enough that most players will go a lifetime without ever seeing one.

Am I right in believing that marking bad opponents enemies means I won't ever partner them again?

I disagree. All you have really shown is an opening hand with 5♠ and no diamond stop.

First of all, the hand you have posted is 7-8 losers depending on the method of LTC you use. Spades: 2.5 losers Hearts: 1 Diamonds: 1 Clubs: 3 losers Additionally, I don't see how partner could have that hand in this auction considering: A) Opener should have 7 clubs, the hypothetical hand contains 5 (that makes 12) and RHO raised. B) The hypothetical hand contains the ♠Q when it is known to be in our hand. I might have had more sympathy for the overcall had the ♣K been the ♥K instead. Of course then you're less likely to get cracked and less likely to go for -500 if you do... not to mention that 5♣ might very well be making with that modification to the hand. Sorry that I don't think a simple 11-count (no, I'm not counting the ♣J) is enough to bid 3-3 when you're vulnerable, particularly when you are not especially shapely.

I agree with most of your points. I think the best thing on this hand is to convince RHO to bid something so you can make a support double! What you'd really like to do is double raise spades, but you only have 3. So then you're stuck between bidding 2♠ or 3♣ and personally I don't know which one is right.

How do you figure it's such a big 18? The ♦J is unlikely to do much. It has no 10s so like a good 17 (17½ HCPs). Rule of 20: 26 so like 2 King's over a minimum bid (18 points). Losing Trick Count: 6 losers, which is like a King over a minimum bid so like 15 HCPs. New Losing Trick Count: 12 half-losers, which is like a KQ over a minimum bid, or approximately 17 HCPs. Zar Points: 33 which puts it like mid-range strong NT (16½ HCPs). Averaging them out we get: 17 Standard HCP: 18 Downgrades: 17½ Rule of 20: 18 LTC: 15 NLTC: 17 Zar Points: 16½ I think you're upgrading it because you know it's opposite a very good hand and not for any objective factor.

I believe the standard method, is that a cuebid of the opponent's suit is Stayman. I might be wrong.

I don't follow your figures as my back-of-the-envelope calculation put the chances of clubs 0-4 at 16.18 percent.

I believe it is common to bid Stayman holding 4-4-4-1 over a strong NT but does that hold for a 1NT overcall? [hv=lin=pn|VM1973,marteuge,catboo123,Mari T|st||md|4S289TH578JD2469CQ,S5QAH69TAD8QC2478,S4KH2QD7TAC369JKA,|rh||ah|Board 94|sv|o|mb|p|mb|p|mb|1C|mb|1N|mb|p|mb|2C|mb|2H|mb|5C|mb|p|mb|p|mb|d|mb|p|mb|p|mb|p|pg||pc|HA|pc|H2|pc|H3|pc|H5|pg||pc|D8|pc|DA|pc|D3|pc|D2|pg||pc|C3|pc|C5|pc|CQ|pc|C2|pg||pc|S2|pc|SA|pc|S4|pc|S3|pg||pc|DQ|pc|D7|pc|D5|pc|D4|pg||pc|H6|pc|HQ|pc|HK|pc|H7|pg||pc|DK|pc|D6|pc|S5|pc|DT|pg||pc|S6|pc|S8|pc|SQ|pc|SK|pg||pc|CA|pc|CT|pc|D9|pc|C4|pg||pc|CK|pc|H4|pc|S9|pc|C7|pg||pc|CJ|pc|DJ|pc|ST|pc|C8|pg||pc|C9|pc|S7|pc|H8|pc|H9|pg||pc|C6|pc|SJ|pc|HJ|pc|HT|pg||]400|300[/hv] Assuming North and West had bid like sane people, we probably would have ended up in 2 diamonds.

As long as clubs run you have 12 tricks off the top. The field is probably not reaching this slam and so you should play it a bit safe. The only risk is a 4-0 club break so I'd start with the ♣K to see how things look.

5♠ as your hand has few losers and a guaranteed fit with partner. The duplication is hearts and clubs is unfortunate, but mostly your partner's fault. He shouldn't have bid 3 over 3 with a simple 7-loser hand. He's a king light for his bid. 2♦ GF as your hand has 7 losers when you upgrade the ♥Q since it's in your partner's suit. Over 3♣ I don't know what to do. A simple preference to hearts, I suppose.

Actually I was the one who bid 5♦ - I took my partner for extreme heart shortage after he pulled the double and so I hoped for the ♥A lead ruffed in dummy.

I'm surprised so many people are doubling. I'd like to see one of those 1,000 hand deals to see how double works out.

No bid. I think the penalty will be worth quite a bit and it slam is unlikely. Although your hand has 6 losers, the ♠K is duplicated so I would have simply signed off without the interference.

[hv=lin=pn|VM1973,marteuge,catboo123,gozzergeez|st||md|1SH69TQKD2589TQAC6,S7KAH257JAD47C47A,S346TQH348D3KC2JQ,|rh||ah|Board 95|sv|n|mb|1D|mb|1H|mb|1S|mb|p|mb|3D|mb|3H|mb|p|mb|p|mb|d|mb|p|mb|4D|mb|p|mb|5D|mb|d|mb|p|mb|p|mb|p|pg||pc|CA|pc|C2|pc|CT|pc|C6|pg||pc|SA|pc|S3|pc|S2|pc|D2|pg||pc|D5|pc|D4|pc|DK|pc|D6|pg||pc|D3|pc|DJ|pc|DA|pc|D7|pg||pc|DQ|pc|H2|pc|S4|pc|C3|pg||pc|HK|pc|HA|pc|H3|pc|C5|pg||pc|H5|pc|H4|pc|C8|pc|H9|pg||pc|HQ|pc|H7|pc|H8|pc|C9|pg||pc|HT|pc|HJ|pc|CJ|pc|S5|pg||pc|SK|pc|S6|pc|S8|pc|D8|pg||pc|DT|pc|C4|pc|CQ|pc|S9|pg||pc|D9|pc|C7|pc|ST|pc|SJ|pg||pc|H6|pc|S7|pc|SQ|pc|CK|pg||]400|300[/hv] Should I have passed instead of doubling?

1NT (16-18) - 2♣ (Stayman) 2♥ At this point responder's hand looks gigantic - 6 losers. ... - 4♠ (kickback) 4NT (0,3) - 5♣ (Got the queen?) 5♥ (No). Then you either languish in 5♥ or bid 6♠ Really, though, I'm surprised that the downgrading group wouldn't open that 18 1NT (15-17). It has no 10s after all.

No bid.