gszes
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Everything posted by gszes
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While a club to the A and another club will indeed establish a club trick in declarers hand there is no way to get back to declarers hand to cash it. lho wins the second club and cashes their spade trick then leads a heart If declarer leads a club and ducks it rho wins the K leads a spade to their p and their p can exit with either a club or a heart to set contract. in fact, there is no reason lho even needs to hold a heart they can hold two spades and Qxx clubs and there is even less hope or using the same logic that his p needed to hold club K for defense to have a shot lho can reduce to three spades and Qx of clubs.
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I have been going blind trying to figure out how this works sigh since E discards after N I fail to see how the proposed LOP works. if dummy keeps void KT9 void A9 why in the world would E keep void QJx void KT? they can see the endplay coming?? Why would they not just keep say x QJX void K?? With no entries left to the south hand the club suit is dead and no endplay is possible???? ------------void ------------KT9 ------------void ------------A9 A-------------------x x-------------------QJx void----------------void Qxx-----------------K ------------x ------------x ------------void ------------J7x at Mp where letting overtricks score can be a disaster I can see E reducing to allow you to make 5 but at imps no way they have to assume p has the club Q or there is no defense. Someone please let me know how my failing eyesight is betraying me yet again
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If p had a hand similar to xxx QJx xx AJxxx they would have bid 3n directly over 2s With xxx Kxx xxx Axxx they would at least bid 2n over 2s even with Kx QJx xx xxxxxx they would prefer 2n to 3c we are forced to assume there is a flaw in p hand for nt purposes and it is almost assuredly because they lack a heart stopper. Once we make that determination the only questions left are why did p bid 3c and how do we proceed? 3h here would seem to ask for a partial stopper for 3n so we should probably avoid that since Qx or Jxx would not be a good combo for 3n. It seems p hand can be anywhere from xx xxx Q Axxxxx or Kx xxx Q JTxxxxx to say AK xx xx Jxxxxxx or how about Kxx xxx xx AJxxx how about Kxx xxx Qxx Axxx where p would loathe making a dia raise and risk missing 3n the point is almost any hand p would bid 3c with we should be in 5 or 6 of a minor (mostly clubs) The only way to get the message across of the power of our hand is with a bid of 4h No p beyond intermediate would have trouble knowing this is heart shortness and club support so p will have little trouble bidding 5c or making a cue bid looking for 6. The nice part about this is if p has dia support they can pretend they have clubs until proper level is determined and then bid dia at proper level.
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for a ten count I have a pretty decent hand hearts sitting behind heart bidder with rest concentrated in my 4 card dia suit. There is also the tiny chance our (admittedly less than robust) spade support might yield a club ruff. Hard to imagine not wanting to at least invite p to bid game and let them decide if the bidding has made their hand better or worse. If they balanced light we are no worse off than we would be if we made a simple raise buttttttttt if they had a good balance game is probably a good shot especially double dummy. After lho pass and rho pass I think the odds of p having a decent overcall have increased dramatically. I vote for 2h
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the hand seems badly placed for the opps they have no running suits and their best chance for 11 tricks would seem to be via crossruff. P may indeed have good clubs but that alone probably wont help us set this hand. My vote is for small trump.
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your spade void means p has a whole TON of spades over there as well as almost all of your sides clubs. Your suits are not independent enough to keep any decision you make from being a massacre (think custers last stand). I may be a big chicken but I would pass and hope the opps have misguessed where they belong after all im not really SURE I can beat 6c am I?
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consistent with the bidding it is difficult to imagine too many distributions and splits of hcp that will alow us to make. I would give up on playing rho for long clubs playing rho for generally 4612 the only question is should we go for AlexJohnson concept of lho holding KQxx or should we aim for the lower % rho holding KT or QT or (almost impossible to guess) KQ. IMO trick 2 we play a dia to hand and a dia to dummy then lead a spade off dummy and see what rho does. If they make a play that shows lots of spade power I would take AlexJohnson LOP but if they show limited spade power (surely lho did not start with spade AK and lead a heart) then I would be much more inclined to play rho for HONOR T in clubs. After the spade and spade return if we are going to play rho for honor T in clubs we go to dummy with a heart or a trump (it matters not which) and lead a low club from dummy. If rho plays the K we win next play and come to our hand and lead the club J hoping to pin the T and making the club 9 our 11th trick (hoping of course rho did not play K from KQ). If rho plays the T we cover and play the ace second round of clubs and hope to see the other top club honor drop once again making the 9 our 11th trick. If rho plays the Q (and looks or has been playing really innocent (not in this group) then maybe we can consider playing rho for KQ tight.
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H3 I am leading the heart suit because I strongly suspect LHO is strong and unbalanced and most likely short in hearts. I am leading LOW because it gives my side the best possible chance to pick up extra heart tricks. 4th best is what we do under normal circumstances here we are leading into at least a 4 card suit and leading the 8 can all too easily cost our side an extra trick so we dont do that. Dont worry about deceiving anyone everyone will strongly suspect you have long hearts to lead one with 4+ on your right:)))))))))))))
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at IMPS 4s not so much because I expect to make it but because of my limited defense opposite a passed hand this bid is a form of insurance with a small window of chance we might make. At MP 3S because I am not so worried about insurance as trying to make life difficult while sometimes (a heck of a lot more than 4s) walking away with a positive score (gotta be good opposite a passed hand).
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p 2d bid had a significant range anywhere from xxx xxx xxxx xxx to say xxx xx KQJxx xx the 3d bid says I hate 2n and my hand is only good for 3d opposite your 2n bid so it is near the bottom range could look as bad as xx xx xxxxx xxx up to maybe xx Qx Qxxxxx xxx certainly not much better-- i would not expect as much as a 6 card suit headed by the K much less the A.
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This was NOT an oooooops this was an intentional and dare I say criminal act of bidding. That 6d vs 6c (to offer alternative place to play) has landed you in a cruddy contract. Bid properly and you wont have to worry so much about what LOP is available for a cute 10% contract. NUFF SAID:)
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I have 4+ defensive tricks and I would very much prefer opps play at 3 level vs 2 level. I would x mainly because it seems MP weak to let opps play at the relatively safe 2 level (especially when their trump suit is breaking evenly). I will pass whatever p bids as scoring 8 tricks even in a 42 heart fit doesn't seem so far off assuming p has short spades. Even down 1 is probably a better MP score than opps making 2 or 3 dia. If opps go to 3d I have done my best and will sit and try to set. I admit that I would do the same at IMPS becasue there is very little risk (opps will almost never have a game) and a decent upside.
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I dont see the benefit of the 2h bid this hand look a lot closer to a 3h bid especially since playing the hand will be almost double dummy. After I bid 3h P will be in much better shape to know when to compete. If lho had opened 1s I would have bid 3h and I do not see any reason to bid less just because LHO has shown at least a K more than most standard 1s openers:) Given the bidding I have to compete to 3h but my p will not be able to raise with their good hand because of my underbid initially.
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the 2d overcall indeed has a "small" chance of hitting a homerun if LHO plays the contract. There is also the chance it hits a homerun in the bidding. The downsides of 2d are: 1. Leaves a ton more space for opps to bid 2. Only tells p half of my distribution story. Two chances of hitting a homerun in the bidding are better than 1. 3. 2d usually shows a stronger (ie defensive trick taking ability) hand than a 2n bid 4. P has every reason to suspect we are a more on the balanced side than we are and this can have a huge influence on their decision making. I would choose 2n for a number of reasons not shown above. 1. I have a couple of quick defensive tricks which are more of a pleasant surprise. 2. This might be my only chance to describe my hand at a realtively low level so I go for it. 3. I can sit back relax and enjoy whatever p decides. 4. Promising 1 trick (2n bid) vs almost 3 tricks (2d overcall) can lead to much better cooperative bidding at high levels. Opposite an independent suit (in a hand of unknown power) I play an x at 5 level as showing 1 more defensive trick than I have promised in the bidding. On this occassion I can now x 5h assuming 1h 2n 4h 4s 5h and p will be happpy to leave it in. I also use this only in siturations that are not covered by forcing pass rules.
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I would bid 5h also with this hand (and be a bit happier about it) but the main difference is if p makes a move toward a grand I would cooperate with this hand with the original hand I would try and sign off:)))
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3s = control and heart support (normally this will be short but maybe Kx xxx KQJxxx xx) 3n = three of top four honors in clubs no support 4c = no support and not good enough for 3n 4d = control same as 3s but denies spade conrol 4h = support no control bid available if 3c 3s 3n = 3 of top 4 club honors no support 4c = no support not good enouogh for 3n 4d = support and dia control 4h = support and heart control denies dia control 4s = support and no control if bidding has gone 3c 3h I see no reason to bid 4s.
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I find myself scratching my head over those that want to play clubs first----you are (almost certainly) giving up on making 7 and possibly setting yourself for no reason if h or d dont break 33. If hearts break 33 you are playing for 7 via a squeeze in minors ---LOP win dia in dummy heart Q heart to K heart A (pitch club) CLUB A (if K falls claim 13) vienna coupe but only targets lho not both opps -----if the club A and Q were reversed this squeeze would work against both spade spade spade ending in hand heart pitching club heart pitching club Q if no club K has appeared see if dia break 33 no risk play for overtrick If hearts break 42 and rho wins and leads a club assume lho has the K and use the lop from above--if LHO wins heart and leads a club (you get a free finesse) insert the Q (claim if it holds) if it is covered play lho for the club J and 4 dia or 33 diamonds. If opps make any other switch after winning the heart fall back on lop from above trying to squeeze lho holding club K and 4 dia or 33 dia. If hearts are 51 or 60 stop playing hearts after 2 rounds (cant afford club pitches). you now need either (A) 4 dia and 2 clubs or (B) 3 dia and 3 clubs Play a couple of rounds of spades to see if anyone shows out and gives you a reason to choose either A or B. Trying to score 3 club tricks is way harder than playing for 2 clubs and 33 diamonds so we will try to find (LHO with KJ or KJX) or (rho with singleton K or KJ). If none of those 4 show up we settle for 2 clubs and 33 diamonds. After the 2 rounds of spades mentioned above lead the club A and another club. If lho started with KJ or KJx it should be obvious If rho drops the club K under the ace I would try a club to the T and claim if it holds. If rho drops J under the A I would duck the next club hoping RHO started with KJ tight. When you lead the small club toward the Q and no helpful honor has fallen take your best guess for a 2nd club and hope dia are 33 GOOD LUCK.
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Unless I need a top board I dont see this as a problem we have avoided a possibly killing dia lead and have a tiny chance of safely making 5. TAKE OUR NINE (or 11) TRICKS AND RUN a spade will probably NOT be the normal choice at 3n at other tables so why invite disaster? Go JLOGIC
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fluffy has the best lop a miniscule chance at a squeeze plus depending on 1 of 2 suits to break 33 is better than a finesse of dia T increasing the odds of taking 5 dia tricks. My main problem is with the bidding Systemically 1h 1s 2d are all fine but after 3n how about a simple 4d bid which invites slam and allows p to sign off in 4n with no fit and no extra values?? After 4d p knows of at least ten cards in red suits and odds of a club fit plummet so even with half way decent club suit if is difficult to imagine 6 with no fit anywhere and a max of around 31 hcp. Sign off in 4N (cue bid to go for slam)
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1. seems wrong becasue we x over 1n which is fine. 2. after the xx 2c by p promises nothing but the bid is essentially ignoring the xx and choosing what p thinks is the best place opposite your minimum tox and game seems a longgggggg way off. Pass is fine 3. P can bid 3c with extra values so 2c range is probably btn 0 and 8 but it wont be as good as say xx xxx xx KQJxxx. 4. While indeed p could be zero xx xxx xxx xxxxx they are far more likely to have a little something in clubs since opps have made no attempt to reach game. Bidding 3c now might just push opps to unmakeable 3 level contract. Leaving them in 2d seems cowardly with such a nice hand.
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xxx AKxx xx AJxx this is a nice simple 1c opener that happens to have heart support and is worth a nice simple 2h bid if p bids 1h. x AKxx xx AJTxxx is almost 4 tricks better than the boring minimum hand and deserves a ton more respect than a whimpering pass even at the 5 level. Almost any hand p might have (missing the trump AK) that looks slammish probably is and p will rarely be disappointed with this dummy if they decide to raise our 5h bid to 6h. Will this always work?? NOOOOOO but I like the odds in favor of aggression here.
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Note how everyone wants to bid more so forget about the possible importance of pass it is completely irrelevant to this hand which is easily game forcing and has some slam interest. over 2s a much stronger bid is 4h this should show a hand with roughly 4135 or 4144 12-15. This bid has the advantage of setting spades (unlike the 3h bid) and immediately allows p to evaluate how their hand looks for slam. The fact that you play 4c as showing 64 helps to limit the types of distribution you can have and makes the 4h bid even more accurate. Save those 3h cuebids for hands that dont have any clear cut call or have lots of extra values making a fast arrival bid less valuable.
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IMPs, E-W vul, S deals: Jxxx AQJx K KQxx void Kx AJTxxx J9xxx P- P- 1C-1S 2D-2S-P- P 4C-P-4H-P 4S-P-4N-P 6C 1. Feel free to let it fly re: the bidding; where would you end up? 2. How do you plan to make 6C w/AS led? missing AT8x in clubs. I would start with ruff trick one play a dia to the K and lead a low club toward the J (this caters to E having singleton A as well as all 22 trump breaks in which case we can claim via ruffing 2 more spades). If J holds lead another club and if they break 3/1 and lead another trump we now depend on the dia suit. we cant cash out the hearts to get a count due to entry problems but we can assume E probably started with 6 spades and w 3 (W would probably prefer a 3s bid to 2s if they had 4 spades). So see who has what in trumps and decide if dia more likely to be 33 or 4/2 and play for drop or take ruffing finesse according to the count.
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imo it is gsf for spades used by a hand with say QJTxxxx AK void AKQJ
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does anyone here see anymore than a minimum 2c overcall in the N???? S x of 2s shows sufficient values to play at the 3 level so why is N passing with 3 tricks? x here showing cards but no clear direction seems to be perfect here. I would not make such a bid with say KQx Kxx xx KQJxx same 14 count but tram tickets on defense. ACES = TRICKS your three plus the expected two from p means at least penalty. Your hand power is limited by your failure to overcall 1n:))))
