l milne

Personally, I think psyches in this spot are really bad against any but the worst players (who might pass over 3H from me instead of doubling). Any good partnership will double you for penalties, so in effect you are allowing them to make a forcing bid in hearts at the lowest level. Same goes for 3NT - you give them more opportunities to sort out their strength. I think 7♦ is the normal bid, although 4♠ (aiming to find a cheaper sac than 7♦ and possibly muddying the waters as to how many diamonds you have) is my second choice. Why anyone would think bidding 4♥ after being doubled in 3 is remotely convincing, I don't know. Any other psyche options, at least make an effort to preempt them. 6♣ for example. Good opponents just aren't green enough to fall for low-level sort of stuff like 3H, 3NT etc.

[hv=pc=n&s=sjt975hkj5dak9ct2&n=skhq642d73cakj854&d=s&v=n&b=15&a=1sp2cp3nppp]266|200[/hv] 1♠ showed 5+, 2♣ showed 5+ (often good) ♣ and GF, 3NT showed 5332 specifically. LHO leads the 4♦ (4th best from length), RHO plays the Jack. Your play

JTxxxxxxx T x Jx (1♣)-? IMPS, all vul. Yes, nine.

I'm certainly not passing second round. I like X first round as we have 3 possible trump suits and a strong hand. Second round, I think bidding for a vul game instead of trying to take a penalty with no trumps seems best. A second double would be more like a strong balanced hand or closer to 1444/1(345), I think I have more playing strength than that. I would bid 4NT second round. X, 4NT isn't a poll option, and no one has suggested it, so maybe I'm kooky.

Thankfully both of these interpretations lead to the same answer.

So how'd you mess it up? What mistake do you think you made?

I think we can make two simplifications here: 1. we can't draw any inference from the lead, as it could be 3-5 or 5-3 in ♦ either way; 2.I'm not going to worry about pressure plays on LHO with Kx ♥, as that will also put unnecessary pressure on myself when there is a good line available. There are two lines in trumps: A: Ace first then lead towards the QT, losing only to KJx and KJxx with RHO; B: Run the queen. If this loses to the King, play the Ace, losing to KJx and KJxx with LHO, as well as K opposite Jxx. A is better, not only because it picks up all the K opposite Jxx combinations, but also because having to guess on the second round sucks. Even though playing for the drop on the 2nd round in line B is best, it is very close. Beating myself up on later hands about these isn't fun. One final consideration: if LHO has JTxx ♣, then we must lose a trick in clubs (roughly 5%). In this case, we would need to play trumps for no loser, in which case lines A and B are equal. But we would take line B, as vacant spaces suggests J opposite Kxx is more likely than Jxx opposite K. However, given that 4-0 clubs with LHO is only ~5% and K opposite Jxx (the extra losing combo for line B ) is over 6%, line A in trumps is best. Obviously, we play the clubs the correct way as well.