I'll give it a shot. Say you play the A♥. You need to discard 4 clubs playing for one loser. Cash 2 top spades and play diamonds from the top, throwing clubs. If either spades are 2-2 or the jack falls, you have twelve tricks. When opponents ruff in or win their J♦, they've taken their first and last trick. Ruff a club to board and the other three are thrown on diamonds. 2-2 spades are 48%, and dropping the J is 61%, giving an 80% chance to make. Say you try the Q♥. If this wins, you're home free, but if it fails... you've lost your one loser so you absolutely need spades to be 2-2. Assuming the finesse is 50%, you have strictly less than a 74% chance to make, no matter your chances of setting up diamonds. Unless I'm wrong, there's no reason to risk losing a heart. You have 12 tricks on 80% of layouts.
