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What is your lead?


Walddk

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I would lead a spade.

Both opponents are balanced, so lets assume spades are 5-3-3-2.

The opponents probably have the A K Q of spades so will only make 3 tricks in that suit. The suit may be 5-4-3-1 or 5-4-2-2. In that case pard might have the 10. Or LHO may have it and not play it and pards 9 forces an honor. OR RHO may have a doubleton honor like KQ and not play high.

 

I think the spade lead is the most passive and least likely to give anything away.

The heart 8 may finesse pards Q.

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NASTY problem...

 

From my perspective, there are two reasonable choices:

 

1. Going very passive. If I chose to go this route, I'd lead a low spade.

2. Attacking and trying to establish a second trick before the opponents can run their 12. In this case, a low Diamond looks right since I'm more likely to get in with a Club...

 

Attacking seems right to me.

I'm leading a Diamond...

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high spot.

 

lead may pick off partner's (unlikely) Queen or (much more likely) J. I expect LHO to hold no 4 card major (or be 4333 with a weak major) but that is no reason to expect declarer to hold no 4 card major. If he holds one, it will very probably be

 

spot lead is insane. It cannot possibly set up a fast trick for us: partner cannot hold the K, and it may well give away a trick. If I was told that I had to lead a , it would be the Q: playing partner for the J, and hoping to fool declarer. That is so unlikely a parlay that I will not try it.

 

However, if I were on vugraph late in a big match needing to pick up swings, than that's my lead: at least it would give the commentators something to talk about.

 

lead requires partner to hold the 10: a very specific card in a suit in which the opps rate to hold 7 cards (or more) and partner only 2 or 3.

 

The rates to give away the least. And I lead a high just in case partner has 10x or Qx: I want to look like someone going passive from xxxx or xxxxx. If our style is the 5 (second highest from xxx) that is the card I lead.

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I can't tell you what is right or wrong, but I am on mikeh's side when he chooses a spade for exactly the same reason.

 

There is little left, if anything, for partner, so we must find a passive lead in my opinion. Interestingly, a spade seems more passive than a heart. Partner may have the jack of hearts without the 10 and only four of them, and then we run the risk of presenting declarer with four heart tricks.

 

A spade might work out even if partner doesn't have the 10. The opponents could have a 3-3 or 3-2 fit. The auction suggests that opener is balanced as well when I look at my holdings in the minors.

 

We know that we have five spades, we cannot be certain that partner has five hearts. Hence my choice of a low/middle spade.

 

Roland

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