Thorny discard problem

[GaryFisch]

[hv=d=e&v=e&n=saj65hj43dj3ca652&w=sk32ha1072d1076cj93&e=sq1094hq5dq9cq10874&s=s87hk986dak8542ck]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

An unremarkable auction led to 3NT played by North. East led 5th best to dummy's king. I won't go into the line actually played. I think the line with the best chances and of the most interest is to duck a diamond to set up the suit for 8 tricks total and hope for a helpful discard for the 9th.

 

Suppose you duck the club return and win the next club. When you cash diamonds, you must find four discards. Let's say you reduce to 2 in each major. If East and West both do the same, you can prevail with ♠A and another to endplay whoever wins it. A better defense might be for East to keep a 2 spades, a heart and a club, with West keeping a low spade and 3 hearts. This would be the position:

 

[hv=d=e&v=e&n=saj65hj43dj3ca652&w=sk32ha1072d1076cj93&e=sq1094hq5dq9cq10874&s=s87hk986dak8542ck]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

On the ♦2, West drops a ♠ and you throw a ♥. Of course, a ♠discard by East would be fatal, setting up the J. If East tosses the ♣Q, it is safe to play ♠A and another. Whoever wins has to lead ♥. So East bares the ♥Q.

 

Now if you play spades, East will get the club and a spade and give West the heart A for down one. So instead, you play the ♥K at trick 10 to pin the Q, setting up the J as the 9th trick. You know to do this, because if West holds ♥AQ10, the contract is dead no matter what you play, and if East holds ♥AQ10? Then West threw the ♠K from KQx allowing you to finesse through the Q. Very unlikely. If West actually dropped an honor from that holding as a falsecard to get you to play ♥ instead, all you can do is tip your hat.

 

Any problems with this analysis so far? Anyone have more to add? Does it make a difference if you don't duck the 2nd club?

[GaryFisch]

I should add, though, in the 2 card ending with ♥ all round and the lead with East, if East plays the 5, you will have to guess to run this to the J. Thus, it isn't really an endplay - except in that you have a chance, whereas if you had to play from either hand in this ending, you would lose.

[Fluffy]

Never though a contract like this would be 'cold' at some point, but seems it is. I gues the defence could so something at an earlier stage to put it down, but after first 4 tricks I don't see any way to beat it.

[Finch]

What happens if after a club lead, diamond to the Jack and Queen, club continuation ducked, West switches to a spade? Or if East switches to a spade having won the diamond?

[GaryFisch]

Interesting suggestion. Let's look at what happens if East shifts to the ♠4 to the K and A. Leaving the ♣A in hand, declarer runs the diamonds. Suppose West keeps the ♥A and probably two other hearts, a spade, and a club. Declarer keeps ♠J65 and ♣A6, and East holds on to ♠Q109 and ♣Q10. The position is:

[hv=d=n&v=e&n=sj65hdca6&w=s3ha107dcj&e=sq109hdcq10&s=s7hk986dc]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

Dummy's spade is now played and ducked in hand to East. East can shift to a club, but Declarer wins and puts East back on lead to play from ♠Q10 up to J6.

 

But now suppose West instead keeps a spade, 2 hearts (including A), and 2 clubs. Now, when declarer plays a spade to East, that player returns the ♣Q. West plays low, and now declarer is either endplayed in spades or must put West on lead to cash the ♥A and play a spade through declarer.

 

Or East could simply keep a heart along with a club and 3 spades, win the spade exit, and put West on lead with the ♥A.

 

Nor can declarer get ahead by keeping both hearts in hand. He then has to come down to 2 spades, and, while declarer may get a ♥ winner at the end, the defense first gets the ♥A and 3 spades, plus the ♦Q.

 

I do believe the game is sunk after a spade shift by East. Naturally, if East continues clubs, declarer should win this trick to not give the defense a second chance.