Master Solvers

[mike777]

IMPS NONE VUL

 

2S=P=3S=X

P=?

 

QT32=73=82=KJ752

[coyot]

Is the hand shown the one that passed after 2♠? Clearcut pass then, 2.5 tricks and no reason to run anywhere... (neither 3NT nor 5♣ are likely unless we can defeat 3♠ by 2 tricks.

[luke warm]

pass? i don't think so... partner doubled for takeout after a weak 2 opening and a 3 bid that supposedly furthered the preempt.. i'd bid 5C tho 3NT might be right

[HeartA]

I would bid 3NT, 5♣ is close.

[han]

Sign me up for pass.

[helene_t]

Simple LOTT decision. If 3NT or 5♣ makes, 3♠ is down 3. If 3NT or 5♣ is +1 or -1 it's even better. Besides, if anything the correction factors are negative. Make the spade suit one shorter and I might not pass.

[hrothgar]

Lean towards pass...

Especially given the 3♠ bids that I've seen this week

[Free]

Pass

[Chamaco]

IMPS NONE VUL

 

2S=P=3S=X

P=?

 

QT32=73=82=KJ752

Pard is supposed to have a spade void (weak 2 raise, they shd have a 6-3 fit).

 

In order to be able to double at the 3 level, he is supposed to have serious values.

Not only that, but, to double with a void, he must have primary honors that will take tricks if pard converts the double (when we make a takeout double with a void we must have compensating extra defensive values on the the side cos our pard leaves the dbl in more often and we can't lead trumps)

 

So the doubler's hand should be rich in AKs, something like:

 

void - AQxx- AKxxx- ATxx

 

With this handtype, I think 5C is a better bet.

 

Of course all these reasonings are based on 2S promising 6+ length; opps might have gambled a 5 suit weak 2, in which case leaving in the double should payoff

[whereagles]

If opps can be trusted to have a 9 card fit, 4♣. Otherwise pass.

[flytoox]

I vote for 4C. I have a good suit. I dont mind pd to raise it.

[Winstonm]

Pass and lead a trump. Slam for us is too iffy. We should easily get this for down +300 to +500, and +800 or even +1100 is not out of the question if the opponents are being pushy with either a 5-card spade suit or a 2-card raise or both.

 

Winston

[han]

Pard is supposed to have a spade void (weak 2 raise, they shd have a 6-3 fit).

This week only I have seen 2S-3S on 5-3, 6-2 and 5-2 fit (really true!) but I don't recall seeing it on a 6-3 fit.

[zasanya]

Can 3 nt make after spade lead?Even if declarer gets a spade trick i he must make 8 tricks without losing lead which means 3 aces and a king as any finesse is likely to lose and in that case 300 if not 500 certain.So 3 nt not at all attractive whether playing for money matchpoints or imps.

5 club better bet but still requires Aces and a king.

So better take the almost certain + score by passing.4 clubs appears a reasonable alternative.

[deerhaven]

Pass

 

Taking a sure plus which has a greater upside than anything except an unlikely slam..

[pclayton]

3N

 

If I catch the ♠AKJ on my right, I have a double stop and this should make easily.

 

If I get the A(K)-J on my right, the suit blocks and RHO has to burn an entry to establish the suit.

 

Pass? Doesn't seem like the field call to me. Getting +500 is possible, but my pards like me to pull their takeout doubles. +300 rates to be real bad if 3N is making. I suppose if I had better spade spots, I might consider it more.

 

4♣ and 5♣ don't really appeal to me.

[Fluffy]

Simple LOTT decision. If 3NT or 5♣ makes, 3♠ is down 3. If 3NT or 5♣ is +1 or -1 it's even better. Besides, if anything the correction factors are negative. Make the spade suit one shorter and I might not pass.

I never studied the law, but I though for applying it you had to know how many ♣s and ♠s partner had, and I believe we have no clue here.

 

 

I would just bid 3NT, pass if I had only 4♣.

[coyot]

If I catch the ♠AKJ on my right, I have a double stop and this should make easily.

 

If I get the A(K)-J on my right, the suit blocks and RHO has to burn an entry to establish the suit.

 

Pass? Doesn't seem like the field call to me. Getting +500 is possible, but my pards like me to pull their takeout doubles. +300 rates to be real bad if 3N is making. I suppose if I had better spade spots, I might consider it more.

 

4♣ and 5♣ don't really appeal to me.

I don't think the chief problem of this hand is lack of stoppers. It is lack of other tricks!

 

Good defenders will be able to read the spade position. If the lead shows worthless doubleton or tripleton, you can't count on declarer to play the remaining spades like crazy. If he has AKJxxx, he will gladly take the first spade and switch :-). With likely singleton on the table, you have exactly 0 spade tricks at the moment :-)

 

The biggest problem of this hand is getting 8-9 tricks in the side suits. Partner's distribution is most likely to be 1-5-4-3 or 2-4-4-3... If he indeed has 3 clubs, you need him to have the ace (AND hope for a good break. Q10xx behind you means you're dead.)

 

Of course, you COULD miss a 3NT if everything goes well. But, given your two longest suits, your best chance is in defending 3♠ doubled :-) - there the spade queen is a sure trick (and the 10 a chance for second) no matter what defense does, whereas in 3NT you rely on the defense to try and run the spade suit to make tricks for you in it... but if LHO happens to have a red 5card, RHO can take the first spade and make a deadly switch...

 

Fluffy:

 

I never studied the law, but I though for applying it you had to know how many ♣s and ♠s partner had, and I believe we have no clue here.

 

No clue? Simple math. If you believe opps have 9card fit (or possibly 8card if they're really brave), statistically it is quite unlikely that your side has more than 9card fit in clubs... 8card fit is almost guaranteed. (In the 26 cards your line holds, there are at 4-5 spades, therefore you can have at worst 3x7 in remaining suits... but more likely have 8-9 clubs and 2x6 in red suits...

 

So the clues are here. At best, there would be 18 tricks, 17 is more likely. (That holds for suit contracts). So, if 5 clubs (11 tricks) makes, they will go 2-3 under - 3 being more likely, because of your spade holding.

 

I haven't studied LOTT for NT versus suit cases, but at first sight, the 5 clubs contract seems to get 2-3 tricks from spade ruffs, so you can expect the total amount of tricks to decrease by 2-3 - and since 3NT is 2 tricks less than 5♣, the same or better math applies :unsure:

[mike777]

I passed but thought the options were close.

 

ACTION=VOTES

4C--------12

3NT-------7

5C--------1

PASS-----7

 

A few comments:

 

Miles: 3nt, only way to get there

Wolf:3nt, run to daylight principle

Woolsey: 4c, Pass and 3nt are ridiculously unilateral

Rigal: 5c, partner may be stretching but I owe him a value bid.

Berkowitz/Cohen: Pass

[Al_U_Card]

3NT at MP and 5C at imps and 4C against my friends in the kitchen..... :D

[pclayton]

Addressing the LOTT issue:

 

Usually, RHO has 6 and LHO has three for the raise. One of them could be joking around, but I've found this to be true 75% of the time.

 

Pard's most likely shapes are: 0-4-5-4 and 0-4-4-5. Other possibilities are 0-5-4-4, and some sort of 5-5 or 6-4's. Lets set the clubs at 4, but I think thats a best case situation for the passers. 18 TT and no adjustments as far as I can see. The 10♠ is a possibility, but surely that card is exposed once I pass the double. So unless declarer has specifically the ♠AKJ, the ♠10 is immaterial. So, the spade 10 should be worth about a 1/3 trick, but certainly the chances of greater than a 9 card club fit more than offset this.

 

The knowledge of a 9 card club fit is good news for 3N, as it is not only a source of tricks, but also translates into entries to the closed hand for red suit finesses that will likely work. As far as the power required to make 3N - pard could have a good 15, but could also have 19 - 20. LHO should raise somewhat randomly with 3 trumps holding a yarb, but also holding a good 10-11 too, so we are at a guess to an extent. Additionally, RHO is somewhat undefined.

 

I too, have never heard of translating LOTT into NT contracts. Helene - can you elaborate on this?

 

If we are making 4♣, 3♠ is -1 (good for the 4♣ bidders, bad for the passers and the 5♣ bidders, and probably bad for the 3N bidders). If we are making 5♣, 3♠ is -2. Again, bad for the passers, possibly bad for the 4♣ bidders (if pard doesn't raise) but probably good for the 3N bidders.

 

If 5♣ is making 6, this is the only scenario where the pass seems to pay off with +500 against the +420's. Although I would argue in this case, 3N is getting +630, beating the club bidders.

 

SO its close. If you think your opponents are jerking you around (or are younger than 25 :D ), go ahead and pass. If they look like they have their calls, try 3N or 4♣.

[mike777]

"I too, have never heard of translating LOTT into NT contracts. Helene - can you elaborate on this? "

 

LOTT is very commonly used in NT contracts.

 

to quote Larry Cohen:

"The number of Total Tricks, when side A plays in notrump and side B plays in a trump suit = seven plus the number of trumps held by side B."

 

Of course as Larry always says "Do not forget adjustments".

[pclayton]

"I too, have never heard of translating LOTT into NT contracts. Helene - can you elaborate on this? "

 

LOTT is very commonly used in NT contracts.

 

to quote Larry Cohen:

"The number of Total Tricks, when side A plays in notrump and side B plays in a trump suit = seven plus the number of trumps held by side B."

 

Of course as Larry always says "Do not forget adjustments".

Curious.

 

So 16 TT (NT vs ♠'s).

 

If 3N is -1, then 3♠ -1.

If 3N fetches, then 3♠ - 2.

If 3N gets 4, then 3♠ -3.

 

2:1 for the pass.

 

Cohen's assertion makes it right to pass with a 4 card trump stack vs playing 3NT when the opponents have a 9 card fit, unless you are red / white.

 

Does anyone really agree with this?

[mike777]

"I too, have never heard of translating LOTT into NT contracts. Helene - can you elaborate on this? "

 

LOTT is very commonly used in NT contracts.

 

to quote Larry Cohen:

"The number of Total Tricks, when side A plays in notrump and side B plays in a trump suit = seven plus the number of trumps held by side B."

 

Of course as Larry always says "Do not forget adjustments".

Curious.

 

So 16 TT (NT vs ♠'s).

 

If 3N is -1, then 3♠ -1.

If 3N fetches, then 3♠ - 2.

If 3N gets 4, then 3♠ -3.

 

2:1 for the pass.

 

Cohen's assertion makes it right to pass with a 4 card trump stack vs playing 3NT when the opponents have a 9 card fit, unless you are red / white.

 

Does anyone really agree with this?

Larry assumes pard is 1444, if partner is void then you need to consider adjustments, complicated.

 

A void suggests a positive adjustment and more total tricks than 16. With positive adjustments you tend to bid on. Of course is partner void?

[coyot]

Addressing the LOTT issue:

 

The knowledge of a 9 card club fit is good news for 3N, as it is not only a source of tricks, but also translates into entries to the closed hand for red suit finesses that will likely work. As far as the power required to make 3N - pard could have a good 15, but could also have 19 - 20. LHO should raise somewhat randomly with 3 trumps holding a yarb, but also holding a good 10-11 too, so we are at a guess to an extent. Additionally, RHO is somewhat undefined.

If you want to address the LOTT issue correctly, you will surely remember that it works under the condition that both sides have similar strength!

 

If partner has something between 13-16 HCP, LOTT works without adjustment.

If he has 17-18, I there will half-trick adjustment to our side

If he has 19-20, we're likely to score one or more extra trick in every contract.

 

There are other problems: If we happen to have 9card fit without the ace, 3NT may be a no-go because we will score 2 tricks in clubs :)) (against Axx on either side).

 

Also, 2♠ opening may be 5card when it comes to that :), not very often, but not to be ignored...

 

Even if things are as expected... if partner has 13-16, I'm bidding 3NT on 19-22HCP, hoping that we have 5 club tricks and (if the defense is any good) 4 tricks in red suits :)

(See above my explanation why the Q10xx in spades might be useless).

 

Summary: I would close my eyes and bid 3NT red vs. white, maybe... In all other cases I happily pass and hope to collect a nice plus. Why hang partner just because he doubled 2♠ with 544 or 553 shape and 13-16 HCP?.

 

The argument about having club entries to play red finesses is pretty useless since both red suits will likely break badly, with the longer hand behind partner...

 

Usefullness of spade 10 is about the same in 3NT and in 3♠ doubled. If the long hand contains AJ9xxx and the shorter Kxx, I will never score 2 spade tricks - and if RHO has a side entry, I might score none ;)

 

3NT is a gamble - and IMHO losing bridge in long-term...