Drop or finesse?

[Walddk]

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=s4haj83dakq1032ca2&s=sj8763hk97d7cj1084]133|200|Scoring: IMP

S: 3NT

Lead: SQ[/hv]

 

An interesting and crucial hand in the match between Egypt and Israel at the World Youth Team Championship in Sydney. The deal has been rotated for convenience.

 

West passes, and after 1♦ by the Israeli North, East overcalls 1♠. You pass, pass by LHO, and partner re-opens with a double. You decide to bid 1NT and are raised to 3NT (I know perfectly well that North did some daisy-picking before 3NT was reached, but that is beside the point).

 

West leads ♠Q and switches to ♣3 (4th best). You duck in order to get some count. RHO wins the queen and returns ♣7, LHO following with the 5. The moment of truth has arrived (if the hand can be made at all):

 

Do you cash diamonds from the top or do you enter your hand with a heart and finesse ♦10 when West follows small? A priori, going for the drop of ♦J is superior to the finesse. The question is, however, if odds have changed now that you *know* that spades are 2-5 or 1-6? It is also likely that clubs are 4-3.

 

Roland

 

P.S. I was happy to see Israel and Egypt playing against each other. That has not always been possible as you may know. If only this could be achieved at all times for all nations, but sadly we are surrounded by (mostly) non bridge playing politicians.

 

P.P.S. I have no intention of starting a political debate. Thanks.

[pmacfar]

What do we know at this point?

 

1. On the opening lead, what did East signal? Assuming East encourages, holding the AK♠, West must not be able to continue the suit. Thus, spades are 6-1.

 

2. Since East lead his 4th best club, clubs are 4-3.

 

3. With at least 4 Hearts, East might have made a takeout double over 1♦. Thus, East has maximum of 3 hearts. West has minimum of 4 hearts.

 

Thus, likey distributions are 1444 or 1534 for West and 6223 or 6133 for East. Only a 4-2 ♦ (or worse) split hurts and if East holds 'em, the contract is doomed anyway. If West holds 'em, the finesse is the only way to succeed. Thus, odds are best that playing for the drop will fail while the finesse will work.

 

Phil M.

[pigpenz]

was looking at rp suit break calculator and from best what i could tell,

finesse 44%

drop 46%

 

and this was with 10 spaces open for west and 6 for East

 

 

inother words you are either lucky that day or not. :rolleyes:

[Walddk]

I don't think you know for a fact if spades are 2-5 or 1-6. Could very well be right for West to switch at trick 2 even if has another spade.

 

Roland

[mikeh]

I spent far too much time on this and would set a personal record for length if I set out my analysis in full.

 

If west lacks imagination, and would routinely continue a ♠ with Qx, the percentage play is the finesse. That is because we can place 10 cards in east's hand and only 6 in west's: 4=3 ♣, 1=6♠ and each has played a ♥.

 

If he has the skill to visualize and execute a shift (and that is NOT a tough decision on this layout, regardless of east's signal at trick one.. which it would be nice to have known), then the odds shift in favour of the drop!

 

So, if you play for the drop, you are complimenting your LHO. If you play for the finesse, you are insulting LHO.

 

Question: how do you feel towards LHO? :rolleyes:

[mikeh]

I should have added, that my time spent on this reply has seriously detracted from the time available for the war effort: no doubt that was the perfidious Dane's hope :rolleyes:

 

But never fear, oh seabird of Hans 0, we Canadians protect our own!

[Fluffy]

Question: how do you feel towards LHO? :)

I hope you aren't asking how declarer was feeling about his opponents :)

 

 

Guesses are just guesses, I would cooldown my brain and play ♦AKQ, preparing to say bad luck to myself.

[mcphee]

As long as I get to insult someone, I finesse and ask for an undo if RHO has the J.

[Finch]

If diamonds are 3-3 or 4-2 I play them from the top. If I really believe this club is fourth highest, then West has K953.

 

If spades are 5-2 it seems very close indeed whether to play for the drop or finesse, so I may as well play from the top.

 

If spades are 6-1 I am making anyway, as West can win the 4th round can cash a club but then I have the rest.

 

What if diamonds are 5-1? Now I wish I had finessed...

[PMetsch]

The moment of truth has arrived (if the hand can be made at all):

 

Do you cash diamonds from the top or do you enter your hand with a heart and  finesse ♦10 when West follows small?

First of all I like to play 2 rounds of hearts (dropping the 9 under the ♥A) ending in my hand. Something good may happen, either opponent dropping a doubleton queen or RHO showing out. If both opponents follow 2 rounds of hearts with small cards I finesse the ♦T, though I cannot calcultate why.

[inquiry]

I also cash two hearts before the moment of truth. Assume both follow. I see no reason not to go with the odds and hook the diamond TEN. If East shows out on the first or second round of hearts, I play for the drop.

 

Would the fall of the heart queen from EAST affect my play? No. Dropping queen from QTx to encourage you not to take the winning diamond hook could occur. And even if East has 2 hearts, he is as likely 6-2-2-3 as he is 5-2-3-3. And even if he is 5-2-3-3 (where play for drop is 100%), the hook is still 50%, and the in the case of 6223 the hook is 67%. So while playing for the drop is (combining these roughly when the queen drops and you think it is honest) 50+67 = 117, while drop is 100+33 = 133, this ignores the possibility that the heart queen was a false card. Against world class, I go with the hook.

[mikeh]

 

If spades are 6-1 I am making anyway, as West can win the 4th round can cash a club but then I have the rest.

 

You have the rest only if west holds the ♥Q: he is endplayed after cashing his ♣, but if he returns a ♥, you have to finesse or play for east to hold Qx: 6=Qx=2=3. You only have 1♣, 5♦, and 2 top♥. (assuming ♦ are 4-2 and you give west the 4th ♦)

 

So the drop is not as good as it looks: it wins against this 4-1 only if you get the ♥ right!

 

And for those who want to cash the top ♥ in the hope of something good happening: if you do so and the Q does not drop, you have just blown the endplay :) When you throw West in (as you must if you play for the drop and he has Jxxx and as you must if you finesse and he has Jxxxx), he cashs a ♥ to go with a ♦, a ♠ and 2♣

[PMetsch]

And even if East has 2 hearts, he is as likely 6-2-2-3 as he is 5-2-3-3.

Is this right? I think a priori chances are still valid at this point, so finding east with a 5=2=3=3 has a greater chance than finding him with a 6=2=2=3. If that is the case you can not add two chances but have to weight them (I hope you understand my bad english).

 

NOTE: I don't believe west swichtched, because he has no more spades. He switched because he didn't want to give away the 9th trick in spades. So there is no clue about the spades being 5-2 or 6-1 in my opinion.

[mikeh]

 

If spades are 6-1 I am making anyway, as West can win the 4th round can cash a club but then I have the rest.

 

You have the rest only if west holds the ♥Q: he is endplayed after cashing his ♣, but if he returns a ♥, you have to finesse or play for east to hold Qx: 6=Qx=2=3. You only have 1♣, 5♦, and 2 top♥. (assuming ♦ are 4-2 and you give west the 4th ♦)

 

So the drop is not as good as it looks: it wins against this 4-1 only if you get the ♥ right!

 

And for those who want to cash the top ♥ in the hope of something good happening: if you do so and the Q does not drop, you have just blown the endplay B) When you throw West in (as you must if you play for the drop and he has Jxxx and as you must if you finesse and he has Jxxxx), he cashs a ♥ to go with a ♦, a ♠ and 2♣

My apologies to Frances and to all others who read my most recent post: my excuse for this stupid post is that I wrote it before my morning coffee :)

 

You only have to guess the ♥ if you were foolish enough to cross to your hand in ♥ before playing ♦! My comment is, however, still valid (I think) if you take the finesse and ♦ are Jxxxx onside or if you cash the top ♥ first.

 

However, if ♠ are 6-1, cashing the ♦ works whenever ♦ are 3-3 or 4-2 onside and this is enough to shift the odds over to the drop: which is the right play when ♠ are 5-2.

[PMetsch]

And for those who want to cash the top ♥ in the hope of something good happening: if you do so and the Q does not drop, you have just blown the endplay :)  When you throw West in (as you must if you play for the drop and he has Jxxx and as you must if you finesse and he has Jxxxx), he cashs a ♥ to go with a ♦, a ♠ and 2♣

Sure, I am down if diamonds break 5-1 (I finesse the ♦T if nothing good happens). But I have improved my chanches if hearts are 5-1 or 4-2 and RHO drops the queen (then I play for the drop).

[ArcLight]

The opponents have already taken 2 tricks. If they get in again they will set you, having 2 spades and the King of clubs to cash. (assuming they can communicate and cash all this)

 

Therefore, play the diamonds to take 6 tricks.

Normally playing for the drop is slighly better (1.5%) than the finesse.

However, since East made the Spade overcall, its likely they are a little shorter in the other suits. This probably more than offsets the 1.5%.

 

Plan on taking the finesse.

 

 

(Too bad you dont have an additional entry to your hand because you could play the top hearts, hoping for a Q drop, and getting a better count on the hand. )