A fair adjustment?

[jillybean]

Hi,

 

How do I adjust an unfinished board like this?

4♠,5♠,6♠ are all possible.

 

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=sa985hdqjt9752c52&w=sk4ht742da863cqt3&e=s763hqj86dk4ck974&s=sqjt2hak953dcaj86]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

West North East South

 

 Pass  3♦    Pass  3♥

 Pass  3♠    Pass  4♠

 Pass  Pass  Dbl   Pass

 Pass  Pass  

 

S3 S2 SK SA

DQ DK ST D3

SJ S4 S5 S6

H3 H2 S8 H6

DJ D4 H5 D6

DT C4 H9

 

tyia

[coyot]

[hv=n=s9hd109752c52&w=sh1074da8cq103&e=s7hqj8dck974&s=sqhak9dcaj86]399|300|[/hv]

 

N leads:

DT C4 H9

 

taking the diamond ace now cannot hurt - and either a heart or a club return will lead to declarer scoring his 3 honor tricks and two trumps on crossruff, losing two more clubs in the end.

 

There is simply no way declarer could run his diamonds UNLESS the defender plays another diamond after taking the ace. Any other exit is perfectly OK, a passive small heart best because it is risk-free compared to clubs. Declarer can discard a club, cash two more winners, ruff a club in hand, but there is no way for him to get rid of J8 in clubs.

 

Leading a small club could possibly cost a trick as it drives out the king, another club is discarded on the heart ace and then a diamond played from hand and east's last trump overruffed. If the declarer now correctly leads low club, his jack will be high with a heart entry - so in this case it would be +1. But I don't think any defender will choose a lead like this when he SEES the AK♥ bared in dummy.

 

So I would adjust 4♠. (Declarer does not deserve more after after so CARELESSLY losing the spade two in first trick :-))

[luis]

I would adjust to +590