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In need of 10 tricks and it looks good...but


Winstonm

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This is one of those hands where you probably won't go down as long as you take some reasonable line, but at the table it's hard to find the best line. Spade to the Ace and a spade will work an extrememly high percentage of the time, but if you do find KQxx in either hand, the heart forces will make you end up relying on a the club suit to behave. If you use the club Ace as an entry, you now have the risk of a club ruff enter the picture as well a blockage, and a diamond entry weakens your holding in a suit where you may have 2 losers.

 

So I'm wondering what the best technical line would be?

 

Another line, suggested by partner, is to finesse the spade at trick two, then ruff the heart return and then bang down the spade Ace and another spade.

 

At the table, I tried to find a line that would handle the KQxx on my right as well as the clubs not working. It seemed a good idea at the time and protecting against this holding looked like it would also suffice in a number of other cases where the spades where 3/2 or 4/1 the other way.

 

But it was late and I was getting tired so I didn't try to work it out completely....

 

The line I actually adopted was to win the heart Ace and finesse the spade. This lost to the Q. I ruffed the heart return and led a diamond to the King and Ace. Another heart came back and I ruffed. I led a club to the Ace and led another spade. When RHO followed, I finessed again and lost to the King of spades; however, as LHO has also started with the Jack of diamonds, she was endplayed sort of and could do no better than exit with a club and when RHO followed I could claim.

 

What I didn't see was trying to use the diamond as an entry would lose a tempo even with the ace onside - LHO grabs the ace and forces with a heart - now if the spades are 4-1 on my left.....oops....I've just lost control of the hand.

 

So I'm wondering if there is a "best" practical approach verses a "best" mathematical approach or if they are one in the same - what is the optimal way to play this contract?

 

I hate to think partner may be right - but finesse at trick two protects against KQxx on the right - followed by Ace keeps control of the hand.

 

Winston

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KQxx in the right is only a bit more probable than stiff honnor offside.

 

I am not sure of the best line here as well, at first sight I think I would have played double finese, but the more I think of it, the more I beleive A is the best.

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Playing spades from the top seems to lose against any KQxx (heart forces) and also to any 3:2 break IF clubs dont behave (for the same reason - if I lose the tempo twice when drawing trumps, opps will force me with hearts twice.

 

So I would finesse spades twice, hoping for A with LHO.

 

Oh, wait, there is a better way! Finesse in spades, ruff a heart, play a diamond to the king - and now exit with a heart, discarding a diamond from hand. You need doubleton or tripleton spade honor with RHO and that's all! - cross with ace of clubs and finesse again...

 

Or not? Is that worse than other variants? It only needs the Hx or Hxx in spades with RHO - no clubs or diamonds split/placement required...

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As bad as I hate to admit it, I think partner is right on this one. Win the heart and finesse in spades - wins when RHO has KQxx or KQx. Assuming the finesse loses to an honor, ruff the heart return and play the Ace of spades - if the spades are 4/1, you can force out the remaining high honor, take the tap and still draw the remaining trump. This line only loses if the spades are 4-1 with LHO holding a singleton honor or the KQxx and the clubs are 4/1 or worse.

 

I think? Making my head hurt, I know that. :P

 

I looked it up - the bad spade break holdings in 4/1 splits occur 14% of the time. A 5/0 spade break is about 4%. So 86% of 96% of the time you make automatically. Let's see, 36, carry the 3....call it 75% of the time. Of the remaining 25% when the spades are bad, you will also make when the clubs are 3/2, or 68% of 25%. Another 17%. For a grand total of...

92%.

 

You guys who are a whiz at this stuff - feel free to correct me on the math.

 

Is this the best line or is there another way?

 

Thanks,

 

Winston

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