Grand in 4-3 or small in 5-3

[Free]

You're playing a teammatch (imp scoring) and you hold:

[hv=d=w&v=e&s=saq3hak83dkqj9cqt]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

Tnx to a relay system, you have following picture of partner's hand:

[hv=d=w&v=e&s=saq3hak83dkqj9cqt]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

Opponents were quiet, and any bid you make now (6♦ or higher) is to play. Partner can't have any other honour card, only some Ten's are possible since we can't ask that.

 

6♠ and 6NT are pretty much laydown, 7♦ is laydown if the hands behave in a few suits (♦ 3-3 or 4-2, ♥ 4-3 or 5-2 with a low trump in the short hand, ♠ in most situations. Does 7♦ have enough chance to make, or do you prefer the simple small slam, or do you even think you can squeeze opponents in 7♠?

 

So, what slam do you prefer: 6♠, 6NT, 7♦ or 7♠?

 

For the record, the bidding at this moment is (MOSCITO, only left bidder shows his hand):

 

1♥ - 1♠ (<16HCP, 4+♠, longer m possible)

1NT - 2♣ (bal / unbal with exactly 4♠)

2♦ - 2♥ (balanced, 11-12HCP)

2NT - 3♣ (5♠332)

3♦ - 3♠ (5-2-3-3 distribution)

4♣ - 5♦ (0/3 keycards in ♠ => 3)

6♣ - ??? (♠A or ♠KJ => KJ)

 

EDIT: It's NOT a short match!

[Rebound]

I think I'll settle for a nice relatively safe 6NT since it's IMPs.

 

I admit 7♦ looks attractive tho. Matter o' fact, I take it back. My vote goes to 7♦ ;)

[luis]

7♦ we don't play a system that can find this 7 just to play 6. When you know you have a chance to do better do better.

[mike777]

You're playing a teammatch (imp scoring) and you hold:

[hv=d=w&v=e&s=saq3hak83dkqj9cqt </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td>  </td> </tr> </table><!-- onehand end -->

tnx to a relay system, you have following picture of partner's hand:

<!-- onehand begin --><table border='1'> <tr> <td> <table> <tr> <td> dealer: </td> <td> west </td> </tr> <tr> <td> vul: </td> <td> e/w </td> </tr> <tr> <td> scoring: </td> <td> imp]133|100|Scoring: IMP

<table> <tr> <th> <span class='spades'> ♠ </span> </th> <td> KJxxx </td> </tr> <tr> <th> <span class='hearts'> ♥ </span> </th> <td> xx </td> </tr> <tr> <th> <span class='diamonds'> ♦ </span> </th> <td> Axx </td> </tr> <tr> <th> <span class='clubs'> ♣ </span> </th> <td> Axx </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td> [/hv]

 

Opponents were quiet, and any bid you make now (6♦ or higher) is to play.  Partner can't have any other honour card, only some Ten's are possible since we can't ask that.

 

6♠ and 6NT are pretty much laydown, 7♦ is laydown if the hands behave in a few suits (♦ 3-3 or 4-2, ♥ 4-3 or 5-2 with a low trump in the short hand, ♠ in most situations.  Does 7♦ have enough chance to make, or do you prefer the simple small slam, or do you even think you can squeeze opponents in 7♠?

 

So, what slam do you prefer: 6♠, 6NT, 7♦ or 7♠?

 

For the record, the bidding at this moment is (MOSCITO, only left bidder shows his hand):

 

1♥ - 1♠ (<16HCP, 4+♠, longer m possible)

1NT - 2♣ (bal / unbal with exactly 4♠)

2♦ - 2♥ (balanced, 11-12HCP)

2NT - 3♣ (5♠332)

3♦ - 3♠ (5-2-3-3 distribution)

4♣ - 5♦ (0/3 keycards in ♠ => 3)

6♣ - ??? (♠A or ♠KJ => KJ)

6nt assuming this is a short swiss or short IMP match.

2nt=6nt, onto the next hand please.

 

Never bid 7 unless you can count 13 top tricks in short matches. (Crane).

[Free]

It's not a short match... ;)

[the hog]

Agree with Luis. Why are we playing a relay system if not to bid these slams?

[keylime]

This is very elementary.

 

You LIVE for chances to be Helgemo. LIVE IT. LOVE IT. BID THE GRAND.

 

With that said, it's time for dessert.

[Limey_p]

Well pard will play it in ♠ but you will in ♦ or nt, clearly the choice is between 6n and 7♦ ;)

 

But seriously, the math supports 7♦:

 

♦ 3-3 or 4-2 => 36 + 48 = 84%

♥ 4-3 about 62% plus a bit more for favorable 5-2's ~= 70%

 

70% x 84% => 59% chance you make.

 

the IMP odds needed are about 57%, assuming the other table is bidding slam.

 

Go for it!

[han]

The odds for 7D seem pretty good (I think cash only the diamond king before playing 3 rounds of hearts).

 

When playing against weak opponents that you know you are going to beat normaly it might be better to bid 6NT. What do you all think?

[mike777]

Well pard will play it in ♠ but you will in ♦ or nt, clearly the choice is between 6n and 7♦  :P

 

But seriously, the math supports 7♦:

 

♦ 3-3 or 4-2 => 36 + 48 = 84%

♥ 4-3 about 62% plus a bit more for favorable 5-2's ~= 70%

 

70% x 84% => 59% chance you make.

 

the IMP odds needed are about 57%, assuming the other table is bidding slam.

 

Go for it!

Bid a 60% grand slam and assume the other expert table is bidding small slam?

 

If I am going to lose a long IMP match on this, I can live with it and focus my improvements on other areas of bridge. Many other areas/

[han]

Mike,

 

If you think that the problem is not interesting and that you'd rather think about other things, please do :P . Also, quoting the master of MP's seems inappropriate, did he know what IMPs were? (yes, I know he did!). With 33 combined HCP's (and a nice fit) we can be quite sure that the opponents will be in slam.

 

Limey,

 

Your calculation seems correct except for the fact that the chances in hearts and diamonds are correlated. If three suits are splitting 3-3 then the odds are pretty good that the fourth one splits 4-4, right? So the actual odds are a little bit higher than the ones you give. Not sure how much, anybody who can calculate this exactly?

 

BTW, many mathematicians might say that doing long and boring calculations odds has little to do with math. Comments like this give us a bad image.

[Chamaco]

Never bid 7 unless you can count 13 top tricks in short matches. (Crane).

"Where there are 12 tricks you can find 13"

 

Pietro Forquet

 

:-)

[coyot]

Getting the odds count here is easy even for me - I think I could figure that in a few minutes at the table :)...

 

The modification againt 59% would, however, be more likely negative. If hearts split 5-2, the odds are bigger for the 2-heart hand to hold the 4 trumps.

 

But still, bid the slam. As somebody said, why play such a complicated system to end up in a contract any bean-counter will bid?

 

(Reminds me of the VuGraph match a year or so back, I think Poland vs England. The Poles bid 6♥ in a very sophisticated auction - one of the commentators said that English with their methods will never get there - and the English pair bid 1♥-3♥-6♥ :-))

[Fluffy]

Well pard will play it in ♠ but you will in ♦ or nt, clearly the choice is between 6n and 7♦ :)

 

But seriously, the math supports 7♦:

 

♦ 3-3 or 4-2 => 36 + 48 = 84%

♥ 4-3 about 62% plus a bit more for favorable 5-2's ~= 70%

 

70% x 84% => 59% chance you make.

 

the IMP odds needed are about 57%, assuming the other table is bidding slam.

 

Go for it!

Obviously this is not accurate, no matter how easy a problem is, you will never be able to find exact % of it.

 

here you bypassed 2 things: first that ♠ can be 5-0, but the most important thing is that a 4-3 distribution of ♥ affects the ♦ split.

[Finch]

Your calculation seems correct except for the fact that the chances in hearts and diamonds are correlated. If three suits are splitting 3-3 then the odds are pretty good that the fourth one splits 4-4, right? So the actual odds are a little bit higher than the ones you give. Not sure how much, anybody who can calculate this exactly?

Diamonds 3-3 or 4-2 and hearts 4-3 = 53.4%

Hearts 2-5 with the doubleton under, and the doubleton holding 3 or 4 trumps = 10.4%

 

Total combined chance in the red suits = 63.8%

 

Some of the time spades are 5-0, 6S will also go off (which improves the odds on bidding 7D). How good 6S is with trumps 5-0 depends on the spade pips & some other bits & pieces (such as the chance of a rounded suit squeeze).

[Finch]

Of course, as you have 7D played by the short spades, if it gets doubled for a spade lead, you can pull to 7NT. If the spades play for 5 tricks you only need the squeeze to come in (about 25%, say, I haven't worked it out - improved with spades 5-0 as it's more likely the heart menace is isolated).

[luis]

Of course, as you have 7D played by the short spades, if it gets doubled for a spade lead, you can pull to 7NT. If the spades play for 5 tricks you only need the squeeze to come in (about 25%, say, I haven't worked it out - improved with spades 5-0 as it's more likely the heart menace is isolated).

If spades are 5-0 then 6♠ can be down on a club lead since there's no way to park the club loser. So I guess that playing 7♦ or 6♠ is then the same and I'm happy with 7♦, I wouldn't pull the double, since the defender doubling knows you know about all the cards he knows if 7♦ is cold and can be pulling a bluff to make you bid 7N which may not be cold at all.

[Free]

Here's the full hand:

 

[hv=d=w&v=e&n=skj976h52da82ca96&w=s54ht64d65ckj8543&e=st82hqj97dt743c72&s=saq3hak83dkqj9cqt]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

I saw this hand on VUGraph, and wondered if 7♦ has enough chance to bid it. On the broadcast, the players ended in 6♠ at both tables. Appartently you guys agree with me that bidding 7♦ is the correct thing to do. :P

[Finch]

If spades are 5-0 then 6♠ can be down on a club lead since there's no way to park the club loser. So I guess that playing 7♦ or 6♠ is then the same and I'm happy with 7♦.

If spades are 5-0 and the suit can be picked up for no loser, 6S still has 12 top tricks.

 

If spades are 5-0 and there is a spade loser, you still make 6S if the hand with 5S has a 5=3=4=1 distribution, or is 53 in the majors and holds the king of clubs (and they couldn't attack the club position at trick one).

 

So some of the time spades are 5-0 you will make 6S and go off in 7D.