bglover Posted August 22, 2003 Report Share Posted August 22, 2003 This is for my own information, as I saw this a few months ago... You are in six off an ace and entries are not a problem. Dummy has kj10xx of the suit you are missing the ace and u have a stiff... You have in your hand a suit that contains AQ (remember, entries not a problem). You have 11 tricks. Is it better to play for the 12th trick by leading low to kj and playing the J? If it loses to the ace, the king will provide your 12th trick... and if it loses you still can hook the queen in your hand later... At the table i was observing.. the declarer led low to the king, losing to the ace and then tried the finesse into the queen and lost that also... I realize its easy looking at all the cards to fault declarer for playing the king, but I am not entirely sure that the right play isn't the jack anyway. Playing the king is a straight 50 50 shot but when it wins it obviates the need for the 2d finesse. But playing the jack gives you an extra chance, as you were always being forced to take the second hook when RHO is holding the ace of the suit, but you get the discard in those cases where LHO held the queen. I admit I am lousy with combined chances, so I would like to know if its mathematically correct to play the jack...It seems to me that maybe it is.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted August 22, 2003 Report Share Posted August 22, 2003 Its six of one and half a dozen of the other. First, if the A and Q are in the same hand (either), it really doesn't matter which card you play when you lead low towards dummy. You will make (either winning if West plays low, or hooking second round if east has both). Also if West has singleton honor it shows up when you play low towards the dummy, and can't go wrong. So the problem hands are when the honors are split and not singleton in front of the KJT... now the odds of the Qeen being on side or the ACE is exactlty even. Playing low and playing either K or J if honor doesn't appear has 75.2% chance of working... the odds are exaclty the same. Ben Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Tu Posted August 26, 2003 Report Share Posted August 26, 2003 Mathematically against an omniscient defender it's the same, but practically it's better to hook the J. This is because LHO will rise with the ace some portion of the time. This tilts the odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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