What do you do?

[bglover]

All red, you pick up the following hand:

 

Kxx

xxx

Axxx

kjx

 

RHO bids precision 2c (11-15 clubs and probably other major), you pass, lho passes, partner bids 2s...RHO now bids 3c

 

what do you do now?

[hrothgar]

Nasty problem

 

Any one of a variety of answers's could be right.

 

(a) 3NT: I have a double stop in clubs and no ruffing values

(:) Double: I have prime defensive values

© 3D: I have a great hand, support for partner, an am uncertain about strain

 

I rate the bids as follows

 

Double = 8

3D = 6

3D = 5

Any Spade bid = 2

[flytoox]

All red, you pick up the following hand:

 

Kxx

xxx

Axxx

kjx

 

RHO bids precision 2c (11-15 clubs and probably other major), you pass, lho passes, partner bids 2s...RHO now bids 3c

 

what do you do now?

 

I will dbl, pd bid 2s in balance seat, he may have very few with only five card spade. 3c rates to down 2.

[pbleighton]

Double.

[the hog]

3NT. rho knows he was missing the KJ of C when he bid.

[inquiry]

I hate this hand.... but ok, here is my bid and why.

 

FIRST what I don't do at imps is DOUBLE. I rate that as a 0 option.

 

So my choice is between a tame pass and an aggressive 3S. I will not bid 3nt.

 

What, have I lost my mind? Let me explain. First I assume good opposition. RHO not only heard his partner pass, but also took note of no preemptive raise to 3C. He is missing the KJ of clubs, so his suit is not glowingly good. So unless he is a madman, he has either a solid second suit or extra long clubs as source of tricks, and probably both.

 

Second, partner didn't reopen with a double in case I had trap pass and they vul, so he is not too short in clubs, and doens't have a buncho hearts too. Also, he balanced, using some of my 11 hcp to get his bid. I think a likely hand for opener on this sequence is...

 

S-void

H-AQJT

D-xx

C-AQT9xxx

 

and partner has something like....

 

S-AQJxxx

H-Kx

D-xxx

C-xx

 

Against 3Cx you win 2Clubs and 1D so they mak an overtrick. It is this type of hand I worry about. So while I think they will probably go down one trick more than half the time, I think that they make too often for dbl to be the winning shot unless you really need a board.

 

Now, do I mildly pass 3Clubs, happy that partner pushed them one higher (not hang partner) or do I raise to 3S. With the hands shown above 3S doubled is ugly. CA, C ruff, heart hook, club ruff and over ruff. and you still lose 1h, and 2 diamonds for down two and minus 500. 3NT fairs no better on Diamond King lead..you get 1D and 6 spades for down two.

 

So here is my answers...

 

At matchpoints I double... becasue I think they go down one about 60% of the time. At imps I pass, happy that partner pushed them one higher. Now if you partner never balances on junk... then, maybe some other bid is for you. But I am happy with my choice. After all.. if it goes 3Cpp to parnter... with a little extra, he can balance again. Maybe with dbl with heart tolerance and singleton club.

 

Ben

[the hog]

I must admit I'd expect a slightly better hand from pd to come in vul at the 2 level, hence the 3NT bid. Besides I am playing it. ;D

[Codo]

which gives you at least two extra tricks :)

[pbleighton]

Four extra tricks ;D

[bglover]

AND PARTNER'S HAND WAS:

 

A10xxx

Qxx

kj10x

x

 

3S goes down, 3n goes down... the only positive action was x or a (timid) pass.

 

I was simply curious how many would bid 3s on this auction. The 3N bidders aren't "wrong" but for partner's hand to be good enough he is going to have real good spades and spades would be likely to play better then (partner known to be short in clubs... even a possible void.. ).

 

My take on the hand was if 3S was right, partner should have x'd to start... he would need a stronger hand than he showed by merely balancing for me to want to merely compete.

 

This, by process of elimination left double as the correct action... 3n was the distant "3d" choice bewteen 3s and x in my view, though certainly not unreasonable.

 

If partner pulls the x, then I would bid 3n, but not until then.

[inquiry]

AND PARTNER'S HAND WAS:

 

A10xxx

Qxx

kj10x

x

 

3S goes down, 3n goes down... the only positive action was x or a (timid) pass.

 

Well... let me stand up for the timid pass yet again. Assuming RHO has his bid and say seven clubs... you will need your sure 2 clubs (and if dummy hits with Club Qx, unlikely true, you have only 1 club trick), and three tricks out of the of Spade and AK of diamonds.

 

If RHO is 1-4-1-7, 2-4-0-7. or 0-4-2-7 and most hands with 8 clubs, your double will backfire on you. Here is what you are risking... 3Cx making for a minus 770 when you could have been just minus 110. That is a lose of 12 imps. So you risk gaining 3 imps (+200 versus +100) to losing 12 (-770 versus -110). If you estimate that they are going down 50% of the time, double in the long run loses an average of 4.5 imps (easy half time you win 3 imps, other half you lose 12... for net 9 imps in two tries, or minus 4.5/dbl

 

What if they go set 60% of the time? Now you lose an average of 3 imps for board. Why, if the hand was played 10 times, you would win 3 ims six times (18 imps), but lose 12 imps four times (minus 48 imps). This works out to be net minus 30 imps over ten deals, and a net loss of 30 imps.

 

What if you will beat it 70% of the time? Same simple math if played ten times, you are plus 21 imps seven times for doubling, but minus 12 three times for when they make for minus 36 imps, a net minus 15 imps or minus 1.5 imps per double.

 

As you can see... the winning action at imps is quite different from the winning one at matchpoint. If it is more likely than not to go down at matchpoint, by all means double. You actually need an 80% chance of setting 3Cx one before you break even at imps, at least mathematically. This is why I said at MP I would double, and at imps, I would never consider it.

 

Ben