Find the queens

[Walddk]

[hv=d=e&v=n&n=sa1065haj532d103c84&s=skj82hk1098dq2ca73]133|200|Scoring: IMP

S: 4H

Lead: DA[/hv]

 

You are in 4♥ after East opened a weak 2♦. You doubled, LHO raised to 3♦, and your partner bid 4♦ to let you choose a major.

 

The lead is ♦A and East encourages. At trick 2, West switches to ♣K. Say you decide to duck in order to get more information, and East follows with the 6 (standard). West now continues with ♦7 to East's king, and he exits with ♣2 to your ace, West following with the 9.

 

What is your plan? Which defender do you play for the queens in the majors?

 

Roland

[Finch]

I'm going to show my skill at not answering the question.

 

It appears that RHO has KJxxxx in diamonds and either two or four clubs.

If you had me on your right, you could ask and find out that with KJxxxx ?xxx in the minors at favourable, I would not open 2D but 3D.

 

Can I ask about RHO's pre-empting style please?

 

If they say they don't know I will assume RHO is 6-4 in the minors because LHO's play in the minors looks as if he does not have the CJ.

 

edit: mind you, ? ? Axx KQJxxx looks like a 3C bid rather than 3D bid from LHO.

So something doesn't add up.

[Walddk]

Can I ask about RHO's pre-empting style please?

OK, so you ask about their pre-empting style. Not unexpectedly this is what you get: "No agreement" :-)

 

Roland

[Finch]

This is why I like playing against regular partnerships, then can tell me their opening and raise style.

 

How about this for a train of inference:

 

Diamonds should be 6-3 from the auction and from LHO's lack of a raise to 4.

The play in clubs looks like they are 4-4, because LHO might have bid 3C looking at KQJ109x, and also the play of the 9 on the second round looks more like it is from KQ109 than from a solid suit (a restricted choice type argument if you like).

 

Therefore RHO is (21)64. RHO doesn't need either major suit queen for a 2D bid (if I ask about the point range I know I'll be told "no agreement"), but also could have either (or both) of them. That makes LHO favourite to hold both major suit queens. LhO would bid 3D with or without any of the queens, so I don't think I can tell much more from the auction.

 

However, if spades are 4-1 and RHO has singleton 4 or 3 then I have a spade loser anyway. So the first step is to cash the king of spades.

 

a) if RHO plays the 4 or 3 I assume spades are breaking, in which case RHO has a singleton heart so I cash the King and finesse.

:P if RHO plays the Queen I assume it is a singleton and cash the AK of hearts.

c) if RHO plays the 7 I think I going to play for it to be a doubleton which means finessing in hearts. With no inference from the choice of spade, the a priori odds just favour RHO to be 2164 and LHO to be 3334 rather than 1264 and 4234, if you decide they would both bid the same way.

d) If RHO plays the 9 I don't know. Does he look like the type to give count religiously at this point? As I'm playing LHO for the SQ, I think I play for it to be a singleton, so I play for the drop in hearts. When RHO turns out to have started with 97 and I congratulate him on the false card, it will turn out he's just giving count in the suit. Sigh.

[mikeh]

I like Frances' post, but I differ slightly in my line of play.

 

Put simplistically, I am going to play RHO for 2 ♠ unless he drops the Q on the first round. (I think that RHO's 9 on the first round is more likely from 97, 94 or 93 than from a stiff... if RHO is weak, he will be giving count more than he should, and if he is strong, he will know that you are trying to get an inferential count in trump and will false-card randomly)

 

The problem is what if LHO is 2=4=3=4? And RHO has Qxx void KJxxxx Jxxx?

 

With that holding, one must tackle trump first, to discover the 4-0 break, which changes the odds in the ♠ suit.

 

Cashing the ♥ King first guards against 4-0. If both follow, you cash the ♠K and hook the ♥ next unless RHO drops the ♠Q, in which case trump will be 2-2.

 

If trump are 4-0, pull trump, and hook RHO for the ♠Q.

 

A very slight 'improvement' (I hope) on Frances' line.

[Winstonm]

With 8 known cards in RHO's hand verses 5 known in LHO's hand, the odds of RHO holding the Qxxx, Qxx, or Qx are roughly 29%, so King and then finesse of LHO if the Queen doesn't appear should be the right play...not only for that reason, but a successful finesse will also allow a further count of RHO's hand anytime the the Q is singleton or LHO holds Qx or Qxx - these holdings allow an entry back to hand to ruff a club - the club and heart holdings will guide you as to the best spade play.

 

Winston

[Finch]

The problem is what if LHO is 2=4=3=4? And RHO has Qxx void KJxxxx Jxxx?

Indeed. We are back to their pre-empting style, because who wouldn't open 3D on that at favourable?

[Walddk]

[hv=d=e&v=e&n=sa1065haj532d103c84&w=sq73hq64da75ckq109&e=s94h7dkj9864cj652&s=skj82hk1098dq2ca73]399|300|Scoring: IMP

S: 4H

Lead: DA[/hv]

 

Well done Frances and Mike; you would both have made it. The hand was played in the MBC on BBO yesterday. Some did not pay attention to the inferences the auction and play had given them. Well, in fact no one who had that info did.

 

6 players went down in 4♥ (one of them doubled), 6 played in heart partscores, 1 in 1NTX by West down 4, 1 went 1 down in 4♦, and 2 got doubled in 5♦ down 2.

 

The deal has been rotated for convenience.

 

Roland

[Finch]

Mike made it.

I might have gone off if East played the S9 on the first round.