Correct timing of this 3NT

[42]

Hi all!

 

I would like to hear opinions how to play this 3NT in the correct order and what the reasons are

 

[hv=n=sa10xhaqjxd9xxxc10x&s=skqxhkxdkjxck9xxx]133|200|Scoring: IMP

Lead: a small ♠, 10 is taken with J by East[/hv]

 

Thx all :o

[Finch]

I think this is a very difficult hand.

You have 7 top tricks in the majors, so need to develop two more.

 

1. You could simply lead towards both minor suit kings, or play for the AQ of diamonds onside. This is about a 25% shot (needing two cards in the right hand).

 

2. Alternatively, you could try and set up the club suit. This looks to be slightly better odds, because you will probably also make with both aces on side and you give yourself the extra chance of a favourable club layout.

 

Ideally you would like to run the 10 of clubs, then lead towards the 9, but your entry situation is a little precarious. You also need to keep entries to hand if we are going to set up the club suit.

 

So if you wish to play on clubs, win the ace of spades in dummy at trick one and play a low club to the King. If this holds, play another club. At some point a diamond is going to be played through the KJ, when you are going to have to guess well.

 

3. Alternatively, you could try and set up the diamond suit. You would like to play a diamond to the Jack followed by a diamond to the king, hoping for diamonds 3-3 or the 10 doubleton. This suit is more likely to play for two tricks in time that the clubs are, but we need the 10 of spades to hold at trick one.

 

In summary, I would like to play on diamonds, but to do so I need the S10 to be a winner. It is quite likely the 10 will hold when I low spade is led (did you check they were playing standard leads?), so I agree with putting the 10 in, planning to play a diamond.

 

Once the 10 of spades lost to the Jack, I think you now have to play for something nice in clubs, so I would continue with a low club from hand, planning to lead towards the king of clubs next.

[whereagles]

Ahh.. a tricky 3NT. Love them :o

 

I don't have a clue how to play it (lol), but if it were in the VU-graph, I would go for the flamboyant line of taking the spade in hand, cash 3 rounds of hearts discarding the last spade honor in hand and running the 10 of clubs. If LHO wins this with an honor, he'll have to surrender an entry or a diamond trick, and I'd work it out from there.

[Echognome]

A nice tricky hand indeed. The best play in the club suit is to lead towards the 10 and then later back towards the K. This wins two tricks in clubs around 2/3 the time. I think you can just manage the entries for this as you have two in spades and one in hearts. Playing on diamonds is not quite as good a proposition having a success rate of just over 50% to win 2 tricks.

[Finch]

You need to be careful calculating the percentages here.

 

It's true you are better odds to make two club tricks eventually, than two diamonds.

 

But if you have to lose 3 club tricks enroute to setting up the long one, you are quite likely to have lost 5 tricks by that time (3 clubs, 2 diamonds or 3 clubs, 1 diamond, 1 spade). Or I think the opponents can completely screw up your entries if they find a heart switch after the first club trick.

 

I think you need to go after the suit where you can establish 2 tricks while only losing the lead twice.

 

Anyway, as this is supposedly a beginner/intermediate hand (which it isn't) I would give a "pass" mark to any sane line in the minors!

[Echognome]

I take your point Frances. Presumably when you look at the suits in isolation it's better to get more tricks from clubs, but with diamonds perhaps you can combine chances (one trick in each minor). I agree with you that it's more complicated than it appears.

[42]

[hv=n=sa10xhaqjxd9xxxc10x&w=sxxxxh10xxxdqxcqjx&e=sjxxh9xxda108xcaxx&s=skqxhkxdkjxck9xxx]399|300|[/hv]

 

Thx for your answers!

Caren

[Fluffy]

There is a huge entrry problem, I think I would just start with low ♣ towards the 10, dunno if I would guess next round.