To Count or Not to Count

[Yzerman]

I recent had a conversation with an expert that i played with.  He claims that defensively he give random count except in hold up situations, the rest of his carding is random.  He says that this has worked for him for a number of years and he has learned that count will help declarer more than it helps the defense.  He also says that its more important to locate the remainder of hcp so his carding defaults to suit preferential type carding.

 

I will not argue the merits of what he is saying, for he is the one with 15,000+ MP however I for one MUST have count on a hand.  My argument is that a good bridge mind can work out the balance of the hcp from (a) the bidding, (:) the dummy, © play inference, (d) inate bridge ability, and (e) attitude carding from partner.

 

I cite an example where everything I mention.  You are sitting behind the dummy and defending with a competant and

 

Auction-

 

N....E....S.....W

......P....1D...P

1H..P....2D...P

2S..P....3N  all pass

 

 

KJxx

QJ8x

10

K9xx

 

...............109xxx

...............AK10xx

...............x

...............xx

 

Parnter leads the 2 of clubs and declarer win cheaply with the the C10.  Next declarer bangs down the AK of diamonds partner following and giving count to even number (assume 4 - but we can discuss 6 if you wish although this makes little sense).  Partner wins the third round of diamonds with the J and continues with the H9, plan the defense!

[Tcyk]

Strange reverse with only 9 points. What card was played from dummy? Looks like a duck to me. partner has another heart to lead toward my hand.

[Codo]

Hi Yzerman,

 

what a great example of how useless count is :-)

From the bidding  you know, that Declarer has 5+ diamonds. He continued after you showed out. So he has at least 6, maybe 7. With count, you now know, that he has 7, wow. With Suit prefernce my pd now knows, that I have ver good cards in Hearts and I know, if he has at least one black ace and which.

What is more important?

 

If I understood their bidding right, Declarer has a stopper in Club and I know from pds led, that declarer has 3 clubs.

If he has AKQxxxx in clubs and wants to loose a trick before you can signal all, he needs just the Jack of Hearts for 9 easy tricks. Then you need the 2 black aces from pd to defeat the contract.

But then, your pd knows too, what is needed to defeat the contract:

AK of H in your hand. He knows the count of the diamonds. So with that hand, he just should cash his winners and play a Heart.

So, assume, that declarer has at least one ace:

Then you must play pd for the jack of Hearts, duck the trick and win 3 Hearts together with his ace of spade.

 

If declarer has AKxxxxx in diamonds, you win two heart tricks together with two diamonds and hopefully one ace from pd. Again, Count was no help, but suit prefernce had been.

 

Kind Regards

 

Roland

[inquiry]

This is a problem hand for the defense only because you have to "guess" how declarer misplayed it. And misplayed it he did, as any reasonable hand he could hold with 7D, 3C, and only one of the two black aces can be made (except the unlikely two small Hearts and singleton Spade A, in which case he can not make). It is likely he was playing for split Heart  honors.  Another problem, noted by Roland (Roland seemed to miss some of the cards in dummy, like the HEART JACK), is that on this hand. you have to realize that partner may not have the Diamond Queen..

 

The fact that trick one went CLUB-two to low from you and dummy (lets say you had 43 doubleton, and dummy played the five), and South won the TEN might be significant. South surely will not have... (from the bidding) this hand...S-Ax H-x D-AKQxxxx C-ATx (or AJT or AQT), as these are all too good for 2D, and he is making overtricks anyway. In fact, partner with DQJ here, you may anticipate that he would win the QUEEN. For with Qxxx he could (should?) duck one more time to make the Diamond situation clear to you. Your problem is to count south's tricks, as well as distribution.

 

So the question are. 1) Can south have seven Diamonds headed by AKQ? And if so, which black ace does he hold . And if not (if he had D-AKxxxxx), how can we take advantage of his misplay. If he has seven Diamonds to the AK, and only one black ace, he is toast anyway (he is limited to 4 clubs and 2D or 3S and 2D and a club before your partner gets in to lead another heart). But even DAKxxxxx with two black aces, he is down as long as partner has CQJxx. So the real danger hands for south are:

ONE                           TWO

S-Ax                          S-Qx

H-x                           H-x

D-AKQxxxx                     D-AKQxxxx

C-QTx                         C-ATx  

 

At when the HEART nine is covered by the QUEEN, in hand one you need to win and return a club, in hand two,  you need to win and return an spade. It is clear that a count signal in hearts here by partner will not help you a lot here. Partner had four clubs, and four diamonds. But what you need to know is which black suit to lead when you beat the dummy's Queen. To avoid a guess, partner's HEART NINE showing say 2 hearts is useless or top of nothing is useless. What you need to know is what suit to return. So with a thoughtful partner, who is going to play you for the HEART AKT anyway, will do is use his HEART spot card as lavinthal suit preference. That is, he will return his lowest heart when holding the CLUB ACE, and the highest heart when holding the SPADE ACE.  Then you have no guess. Cooperation saves the day.

 

My general rule for signals are attitude first, remaining count second, and suit preference when necessary or as obvious. Here, if your partner is looking at the fact that you couldn't do any higher than the club 4 at trick one, south has potential 6 diamond tricks (if he was looking at D-Jxxx), and at most 1Spade trick for your side before south snatches 9 tricks, will surely find the need for giving you a suit preference signal. That old heart 9 from 9xx will just have to be pressed into service as a "suit preference" rather hand "count" or general "top of nothing".    

 

Ben

[Yzerman]

* Not mentioned earlier, this is IMPS

 

Sorry if others dont find this as fascinating as myself.  Here are a few questions, facts about play of hand thus far;

 

a) Declarer has 10 minor cards (assuming 7 diamonds)

:) Declarer is known to have one black suit ace

c) Are you certain declarer does NOT have the DQ?

d) Partner was asked to play H, which shold he play?

 

Declarer is known to have AK of diamonds, presumably (a) QJ10, (:( Q10x, © AJ10, (d) A10x, or (e) AQx clubs (this is known from the 2 of clubs lead from partner).  Given the auction (1D-2D) it is NOT reasonable for assume declarer has both black suit aces for then he would have AK, A, A and a seven card suit.

 

Now you have a host of defensive options available, here they are;

 

a) Hope DQ in partner and another trick and cash AK and exit black suit (this works when partner have stiff heart and above is true)

 

B) Cash one high heart and exit

 

c) NOTICE - i never said to duck

 

d) Just for sake argument, how/why is safe to assume 7 diamonds in declarer?

 

e) Why is it safe to assume declarer have 1 black suit ace (other than the bidding)?

 

To focus on (a), this only works when partner have stiff heart and has lead a heart.  Remember, you are playing with a VERY GOOD COMPETANT partner.  You have to assume your partner is operating under same motive as you, TO SET THE CONTRACT.  Your partner should, from his side of the table, know the layout of the minor suits AND he should defend accordingly (he also knows of 10 minor cards - or should know of).  If he has stiff heart, he should cash his winners and exit a heart and let you take over defense.  Cashing winners and getting out is NEVER wrong when he has a stiff heart (I will not prove this unless asked).

 

Take a look at option (B), this option is the option (from my analysis) that should be exercised.  Winning the high heart and then assume partner has one more heart (the 9 of hearts I assumed was highest from 2).  Why, well here is an argument for playing 2/4 leads at opening and throughout but systemically this is our partnership agreement here.  Hence partner has led high from 2 and declarer is known to now have 2 hearts.  You know the whole shape of declarer hand, 1273.  Here is the kicker;

 

APPLYING ALL LOGIC I HAVE PRESENTED TO DATE, (A) DECLARER IS KNOWN TO HAVE ONE BLACK SUIT ACE, (B) 1273 PATTERN, IT IS ALWAYS SAFE TO EXIT A SPADE.  WHY?  BECAUSE IF DECLARER HAS THE ACE OF SPADES THEN HE HAS THE STIFF ACE AND HAS AT MOST 8 TRICKS (6 DIAMONDS, 1 CLUB, 1 SPADE).

 

I find this deal FASCINATING and it just so happened to come up immediately after my conversation on count.  This illustrated the importance of BOTH sides of partnership counting out the hand, envisioning honor holdings from the bidding, the dummy, partners carding, and play inference.  ABOVE ALL this illustrates (a) the importance in partnership defensive agreements and NOT to disregard them and (B) having trust in your partner that he is giving you accurate information defensively.

[inquiry]

:) Declarer is known to have one black suit ace

 

I would change this to "is known to have at least one black suit ace (see next reply)"

 

Declarer is known to have AK of diamonds, presumably (a) QJ10, (:( Q10x, © AJ10, (d) A10x, or (e) AQx clubs (this is known from the 2 of clubs lead from partner).  Given the auction (1D-2D) it is NOT reasonable for assume declarer has both black suit aces for then he would have AK, A, A and a seven card suit.

 

Well I am not sure this assumption is right, because something really funny happened on this auction. North reversed with a) no fit, and B) a hand with only 10hcp. I suspect your opponents were playing something like Kaplan Sheinwold or some thing else (Roth Stone perhaps?), where 2D promised EXTRA values. It would be helpful to know, but I certainly believe that his partner would not be surprised given the 2S bid to see 15 hcp or more in his partner's hand.

 

Now you have a host of defensive options available, here they are;

a) Hope DQ in partner and another trick and cash AK and exit black suit (this works when partner have stiff heart and above is true)

 

Can't be right, as partner will not have DQ, Side suit ace, and a stiff Heart.

 

B) Cash one high heart and exit

 

I assume (in context), you mean win Heart and exit. Yes this is right.

 

e) Why is it safe to assume declarer have 1 black suit ace (other than the bidding)?

 

It is clearly safe to assume at least one black ace. The assumption that two black aces is not possible is less clear, but oddly enough it is always down if he has two black aces. The reason it is not clear is we don't know the bidding system being used is. The reverse is odd 13/14 hcp is the limit for 2D. Therefore I think South must have been showing extra values. Who knows, maybe south promise enough strength that both black aces is almost guaranteed.

 

Take a look at option (B), this option is the option (from my analysis) that should be exercised.  Winning the high heart and then assume partner has one more heart

(forget count for a second. If he had one heart, a black ACE and the diamond Q, after your heart signal, he would cash then lead a heart).

 

APPLYING ALL LOGIC I HAVE PRESENTED TO DATE, (A) DECLARER IS KNOWN TO HAVE ONE BLACK SUIT ACE, (B) 1273 PATTERN, IT IS ALWAYS SAFE TO EXIT A SPADE.  WHY?  BECAUSE IF DECLARER HAS THE ACE OF SPADES THEN HE HAS THE STIFF ACE AND HAS AT MOST 8 TRICKS (6 DIAMONDS, 1 CLUB, 1 SPADE).

 

At least one black ace :-)  Agreeing 2nd best leads and your partner always does that, then 1273 is assured assuming your partner is not (again) leading a singleton heart. As I pointed out in my analysis above, the hand always goes down if declarer has the singleton spade ACE. Even a CLUB back works. If South has CAQT, he has no way to score his 4 club tricks. If he had club AJT partner simply refuses to cover the club J and he can[t collect his 4 club tricks. If he had ATx of clubs, partner's QJ of clubs is good enough to prevent collecting 4 club tricks. In other words, if south has a singleton spade, be it the ace or a small, a club back always sets the contract. Period (just as I said in my post, where I said he couldn't make it with a singleton SPADE ACE (or any singleton). Likewise a spade back works too.

 

If South has DAK (no queen) and both black ACES but no diamond Queen, rather with one spade or two spade, any black return will work (assumption partner has the spade QUEEN). So in fact, the hand you are protecting against is a non-issue.

 

The problem hand is when South has two spades and the Diamond QUEEN. Now you have to RETURN the correct black card. A spade if your partner has spade ace, and a club if he has the club ACE. Any other return, and the contact makes.

 

So like you I find this a FASCINATING deal, and it shows the importance of count (so you know about the 7 diamonds and the 3 clubs. There is the implication of the partner winning diamond JACK (actually alerting you the real possibility (probability) that south has the diamond QUEEN. Finally, partner needs to forgo the normal count lead in hearts, but rather lead a suit preference heart lead, to indicate the correct return. And of course, as you pointed (a) the importance in partnership defensive agreements and NOT to disregard them and (B) having trust in your partner that he is giving you accurate information defensively. And in this case, the accurate information is which suit to return, for a second heart, thus suit preference signal.

[mishovnbg]

Count is necessary sometimes ofcourse. How encourage on lead, Smith's signal and lavinthal... Sorry that we cant have it all.

General 3 types of agrements:

1. Our signlas show what need in board. In my opinion it is too nice to be true.

2. Our signals give p count, all other signlas are rare. Bulgarian experts prefer this way.

3. Combined system of signals, where agreements are different for lead, opp play in suit... I prefer this method.

Note: Ofcourse you can bluffing but pay bluffer;D.

When we talking about bridge we often forget that humans are not computers, or at least not yet B). On long run counting every board will lead to fatigue.

Misho