Matchpoints Lead

[Finch]

[hv=s=sa742h85dq98cq765]133|100|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

RHO opens 2NT, and plays 3NT after LHO shows some interest in the majors and RHO denies interest (the exact auction varies by table; some may have started with a Polish club or a strong club but I don't know what happened everywhere).

 

My normal rule at matchpoints on this auction is to lead from a 5-card suit if I have one, or else try and go passive. Great rule, but this hand doesn't exactly have a passive option.

 

One good thing about the electronic travellers used (the Bridgemate) and the barometer format is that you get a detailed printout a couple of rounds later showing the contract, the lead and the result at every table. So you can see the lead chosen by all 26 "experts" in this position in the Open Pairs final.

 

Anyway, I know what I chose. What do you lead?

[Echognome]

The opponents have at most 7 hearts between them. So partner is marked with 4 or 5 hearts. You have a good portion of the outside strenght though making the heart lead slightly less attractive. However, I still don't like leading from my 4 card spade suit, so I'll try to catch partner with KJ9x(x) of hearts sitting over 10 or Q in dummy and lead the ♥8.

 

I understand that a minor is more likely to build us some tricks, but that would be a guess as to which one is more likely to help and could be a disasterous lead. I don't like leading from a 4 card major unless I see a real prospect of tricks.

[mike777]

Low club with no real conviction.

[luke warm]

i don't think i'd lead a minor suit on this auction... i'd lead the spade, but the heart could be better

[cherdano]

Nice problem, I am really curious what the majority chose!

I guess a club, although of course a heart could be right.

 

Congratulations on the first session btw.

 

Arend

 

Edit: Small spoiler, I have just looked up the full hand:

Don't you think the auction will often have gone 2NT-3NT?

 

[flytoox]

I will go with Heart lead.

[Winstonm]

I hate to blow a tempo but at the same time my club spots are not encouraging and a diamond looks too dangerous - a heart by default hoping the tempo loss doesn't cost us too much.

 

WinstonM

[MickyB]

Axxx and Q98 are both pretty horrible suits to be leading from. The club spots aren't too promising, so I'll go with a heart.

[Finch]

Congratulations on the first session btw.

 

Arend

Thanks. The second session was also good fun (the session score was about as good as the first one, but then the carry forward was included & ours was dire).

 

We'll really think we're experts when we can play that well for the whole event, not just the first two sessions of the final (we were pretty poor in the qualifier and just squeaked into the final via the repechage). Sadly many of the bad results on the second day were self-inflicted. Most of them on vu-graph, just to rub it in.

[Fluffy]

I could play only 1 season good, and with poor luck we scored only 51%, after that I went really exausted and next 3 seasons were horrible (specially second one) :P .

[joker_gib]

Congratulations to both of you !

 

Being in the A final is already a great performance (just have a look at the pairs in the B final !!) and this was a very strong field ! B)

 

Ah,.... euh, ..... for the lead..... I will try a passive ♥ B)

 

 

Alain

[Finch]

As Chardano pointed out, you might not be able to compare the leads chosen across the field exactly, because dummy might just have raised directly to 3NT. To my mind, that would make a heart less attractive and a club more so. Bear that in mind from the statistics below.

 

At all 26 tables the contract was 3NT with the same declarer.

The opening leads given aren't always cards that exist, but from experience I would expect the suit given to be correct, and the pip may have been the scorer's estimate of "low spade" or whatever. So,

 

A spade was led 12 times, resulting in +3 twice, +1 4 times, making 4 times, 1 off once

A heart was led 4 times, resulting in +1 once, making 3 times

A diamond was led once, leading to making exactly

A club was led 9 times, leading to +1 3 times, making 6 times

 

I don't think one hand proves what the "right" lead is on the hand. But it's interesting to see what people choose.

[Finch]

I led a spade; I thought it was close between a spade and a heart. This is in fact a very interesting hand at matchpoints - in spite of the fact that the spade looks as if it costs a trick we got a good result on the hand, thanks in part to our lead style:

 

[hv=n=sq1065hq64d763ca42&w=sa743h85dq98cq765&e=sj98hj9732dj54cj10&s=sk2hak10dak102ck983]399|300|Scoring: MP

3NT by South

(I've now fixed the spade pips to be exactly right)[/hv]

 

I led the 3 of spades, attitude (low from length to an honour), 10, Jack, King.

Declarer chose to play 3 rounds of diamonds (I don't know what's right here)

Partner Smith petered in diamonds, which in this context had to mean he had the 9 of spades.

I continued with another low spade, Queen, 9, 2.

Declarer cashed the long diamond, 5 of clubs, 5 of spades, 2 of hearts

Declarer cashed the CK, 6, 2, Jack

 

Declarer now reasoned as follows (I believe, I didn't ask):

Spades are likely to be 5-2 because Axxx is an unattractive lead, and because RHO played the 9 on the second round rather than a lower one. Surely if leader was 4333 she'd have led a heart (true, I would have done), and if she was 4234 isn't a heart discard more likely than the long club? Therefore aren't clubs looking very likely to be 3-3, and RHO's play is from QJ10 or QJ7 tripleton?

 

Declarer had faith in her reasoning and now ducked a club to my partner, so we cashed 2 spades to hold it to contract.

 

Partner's S9 on the second round ("play the card you are known to hold") was an excellent (if rather subtle) effort.

 

This hand is typical of why matchpoints is such hard work...

[cherdano]

Thanks. The second session was also good fun (the session score was about as good as the first one, but then the carry forward was included & ours was dire).

 

We'll really think we're experts when we can play that well for the whole event, not just the first two sessions of the final

If you wait until four consecutive 55-60% sessions in this kind of field, others might consider you world class before you have gained your 'expert' self-rating..