UI due to change of call

[johnu]

Because if I'm expecting that 5D will go 500 (or 800! - x xx Kxxxx Qxxxx), I'm bidding 3.

 

With x xx Kxxxx Qxxxx, opponents can make 6♥ or 6♠ for +980. If you just bid 3♦, opponents have plenty of room to get to slam.

[mycroft]

And 800 won't be a near-zero anyway? You play in better games than I do.

 

But 500 into 450, frankly even 500 into 980, is something I should be aiming for?

 

To be more clear, obviously partner could have a better hand than that. But it could easily be 500 into game only. It could be 300. it could be into 450, so it's a dealer's choice.

 

And yeah, it's not me, but these opponents have better chances at getting the overtrick than the pairs who didn't get an overcall. Maybe it's right, therefore, to go hunting for magic; but I still don't think I will, and I still don't think 800 will score that much better than 980 in an "average level club game".

 

Do I think that 3♦ is a LA that could be influenced by the UI? Yes.

Do I think that many "average club game" players would bid only 3♦ without the UI? Yes.

Do I think that it's a poor call? Depends on my agreements about 2NT.

Do we adjust? Well, if West is a good enough player that if I were to (at the bar, not the director of the game) tease her about "5 card support, no major cards, and *only* 3♦?" she'd get it, then yeah, we do. Because she'll be good enough that when (as the director) I say "it really makes sense to bid 5 right away and put them to it, you know 4 is cold" she'd reluctantly agree; and then I can point out how "if you have information from your partner's action that he may have missed North's opener, and actually has 20 flat, you can see how that might influence you into not 'taking the advance sacrifice', yes?" and from there to the ruling, whatever it is. If she's the kind of club player - even good one - that bids 3♦ because "partner told me to pick a minor, and I prefer diamonds to clubs", then maybe not - because 5♦ wouldn't have entered her mind even without the UI.

[johnu]

And 800 won't be a near-zero anyway? You play in better games than I do.

Who says the opponents are going to double even if they have you for 500 or 800 when partner has the weakest type of hand? It's not like they have a kibitzer whispering in their ear saying to take the penalty. They've got a massive 2 suited major fit with the only sure defensive trick being ♦A. I've actually played a hand where the opponents bid on to the 5 level or higher on this sort of layout.