Your lead & why?

[jillybean]

[hv=pc=n&w=skt53hj953dt865c3&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1hp1sp3cp3nppp]133|200[/hv]

 

Your lead, and why? Thanks

[paulg]

♦8

 

Given how poorly all the cards seem to lie for declarer, I will make the most passive lead I can find. Second (distant) choice would be a club, but you often find declarer has a partial club fit but does not want to go past three no trump.

[jillybean]

I'm happy to see that we agree on a ♦

Why the 8?

 

I'll try to answer. 10 would promise top of sequence. 5 or 6 looks like low from strength?

[DavidKok]

I think a diamond is best, but the club is close. On the auction and our hand the dummy rates to table approximately 2=5=2=4 or 2=5=1=5 shape, while declarer likely has 4 spades, 1-2 hearts, 3- clubs and therefore 4(+) diamonds. Most people would bid 3♦ rather than 3NT with weaker diamonds or longer spades, fishing for a possible 4M contract in case opener has a sixth or a spade fragment. Declarer might have 4(+) clubs and still prefer NT (for example with a 4=2=3=4 with good diamonds) but I think it is against the odds.

 

The problem with leading a club is that, even if we successfully finesse through dummy's long suit and partner can win cheaply (the best case scenario), partner likely can't continue the suit and we cannot lead it a second time later. Leading singletons against 3NT is almost always a bad idea - the suit rates to not establish. Also looking at our hand partner likely has 3-4 spades and 2-3 hearts, and it is unlikely we can set up either of them through active play but not through passive play. So a diamond it is.

 

Most pairs have agreements about leading from Txxx (for some this is considered Hxxx, for others xxxx). I would not lead the ten, that might blow a trick. Every other card is fine, so play the one that your partnership has agreed to lead from this holding.

[mikeh]

Never the 8 of diamonds. I don’t mind second highest from xxxx but I’m one of those, to whom David referred, who treat 10xxx as Hxxx. Even if I didn’t, the 8 is too big a card to simply throw away

 

At the table (with screens or online, so I’m not conveying info to partner) I’d ask whether they have agreements about the length promised by 3C (for me, 3+) and what a 3D bid by south would have meant, over 3C.

 

At imps, I think I’d lead a spade as the best chance of beating the contract. I’d like to have K108x but I don’t, so I’ll just hope partner has good spots, plus at least the queen. It’s unlikely, if the opps are competent, that south has five spades. 3N prevents opener from bidding 4S with say 3=5=1=4 shape (imo, anyway). On a good day, partner has AQx and declarer Jxxx, and we can not only cash four tricks but also force two discards from dummy before declarer knows how the round suits break.

 

At mps, I think the spade too risky. While I think it most likely to lead to a plus, I also think it’s most likely to blow a trick…those thoughts are not contradictory. They simply reflect the high variance I accord to the lead of a spade

 

So at mps I’ll try to make the ‘normal’ lead, which is, I think, a low diamond.

 

Definitely not a club, btw. Not merely because I’ll never be able to lead another but also because there are too many holdings on which we blow a trick and/or a tempo, plus once discovers we led a stiff (which may happen as early as trick 2), a good declarer may be able to infer our lead problem. And, of course, we have the likely unenviable task of finding a non-fatal discard.

[bluenikki]

5 or 6 looks like low from strength?

It is lowEST from strength.

 

Granted, partner will often not be able to tell that the 6 is not lowEST. But declarer may not be able to falsecard effectively. And may forget to even if they could.

[akwoo]

At IMPs, I lead a spade. At MPs, it depends on partnership agreement, which I hope is optimized to partner.

 

Opposite a good player who can look at the dummy, recall the bidding, think about the problems I might have had and the problems declaring is having, I'll lead a low diamond. (It's the 5 in all my current partnerships, but someone could twist my arm into playing 3rd/low even at NT.)

 

Opposite a partner who is likely to just return the suit if you lead a low-ish card, or who might think a little bit but not really figure things out, I'll lead the 8; in such a partnership we're also likely to have the agreement that the T is not an honor for "4th best promises an honor" purposes.

 

Opposite a partner who is just going to return my opening lead no matter what, I lead a spade.

[the hog]

8 of ♦ is a clear lead from me. I am never leading a low D as that suggests strength in the suit that I do not have.

[jillybean]

[hv=pc=n&s=saj98h8dkqj73ct74&w=skt53hj953dt865c3&n=s62hakt42d4cakq52&e=sq74hq76da92cj986&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1hp1sp3cp3nppp]399|300[/hv]

 

I led ♦5, who knew I was leading into a 5 card suit.

 

When we were reviewing the hand and trying to tighten up our leads, it was interesting to see everyone with the same auction to 3NT led either ♦ 8 or 5.

the only pair to find the killer ♠3 lead was after an auction 1♥ 2♦ 3♣ 3nt

[the hog]

Killer? 3NT is in the refrigerator.

[mikeh]

3N is cold on a spade lead? I don’t see it. The play can get complex (do you win the first spade? Do you establish two diamonds by firing out the King? Do you plan to use the club 10 as an entry?

 

However, on cursory examination, I think good defence gets to five tricks before even double dummy play gets to nine. I’d be interested in finding out where I’m wrong.

[AL78]

Killer? 3NT is in the refrigerator.

 

It isn't because the spade lead kills the entry to the diamonds declarer has to establish.

 

On the given auction there is no way I am finding a spade lead from a broken honor sequence into what sounds like declarer's primary suit, but that is why I am not world class.

[AL78]

I've just put the hand in an online double dummy solver. 2NT is the limit double dummy.

[smerriman]

On the given auction there is no way I am finding a spade lead from a broken honor sequence into what sounds like declarer's primary suit, but that is why I am not world class.

I would say a greater display of skill is seeing a spade is the only way to beat the contract double dummy, and being happy that you *didn't* lead it. (In general that is; whether that's the case here, I don't know.)

[Cyberyeti]

Killer? 3NT is in the refrigerator.

 

Double dummy yes, single dummy you need to decide W has a small singleton club rather than J or Jx and lead a small club off the dummy on the first round to make the 10 your entry back to hand.

 

Note leading 8♦ rather than a small one should encourage E to duck which makes it a bit more awkward for S

[mikeh]

I don’t think 3N can be made on best defence but I think it does make on a spade lead.

 

Win, play the diamond King. It does east no good to duck. Now a spade to West whose best effort is a heart, preferably the 9. It’s not double dummy to win and play a low club…on the heart switch it does no good to play for Jx in clubs…you can get to your ten but then can’t get back to dummy. So the choice is between an unlikely stiff Jack or a roughly 50% hope for east to hold the Jack.

 

Now south has 1 spade, two diamonds, two hearts and four clubs. The defence gets two spades, one diamond and one club.

 

But best defence, which truly is double dummy, is the lead of the heart 9. Whether a low heart works as well is too tough for me at 4:46 am.

 

I don’t think there’s any way home now.

[jillybean]

♠ 3 2 Q 8

♠ 7 J K 6

♥ 5 A 6 8

♣ A 6 4 3

♣ K 8 7 ♦8

♣ Q 9 T ♦5

♣ 2 J ♦ 3 6

♠ 4 A 5 ♥2

♦ K T 4 2

♠ 9 T ♥4 ♦ 9

♥ 3 K 7 ♦ 7

♣ 5 ♦ A J ♥ 9

♥ T Q ♦ Q ♥ J

 

 

Mike, double dummy says 3N-1 on a small spade lead , East must duck your ♦K return

[mikeh]

♠ 3 2 Q 8

♠ 7 J K 6

♥ 5 A 6 8

♣ A 6 4 3

♣ K 8 7 ♦8

♣ Q 9 T ♦5

♣ 2 J ♦ 3 6

♠ 4 A 5 ♥2

♦ K T 4 2

♠ 9 T ♥4 ♦ 9

♥ 3 K 7 ♦ 7

♣ 5 ♦ A J ♥ 9

♥ T Q ♦ Q ♥ J

 

 

Mike, double dummy says 3N-1 on a small spade lead , East must duck your ♦K return

Goes to show that I shouldn’t analyze at 4:30 am. East ducks the first diamond, south needs a second diamond so leads the queen and east wins and returns another? If south won an early spade, west has an entry in spades for the diamond 10 to win. If south ducks the first two spades, west switches to hearts and tgey have time to build a heart trick. Ironically that’s what my initial cursory look suggested but by 4:30 am I’d forgotten the play to set up a second defensive diamond trick.

[jillybean]

Yes, if East wins the second D, GIB says E can continue D or S to set the contract. I don't understand the play.

This link to the HR and double dummy may work, if you click on the little camera icon on the right, it takes you to handviewer

 

http://www.auckland.nzbridgeclub.org/showtraveller.asp?id=493269&board=1&pair=9

 

 

4:30am is usually not a good time for bridge hands for me either.

[smerriman]

But best defence, which truly is double dummy, is the lead of the heart 9. Whether a low heart works as well is too tough for me at 4:46 am.

 

I don’t think there’s any way home now.

This is a really good example of why it's extremely dangerous to look at double dummy scores, backing up what you pointed out in the other thread. Double dummy says that West leading a low spade at trick 1 is the only way to defeat the contract.

 

If West instead leads a heart - whether the 9 or low - the contract is makeable.. by winning in dummy and immediately leading low to the ten of clubs! If a declarer did that I'd be pretty suspicious :)

[thepossum]

Curious that the small spade is the killer :)

[jillybean]

This is a really good example of why it's extremely dangerous to look at double dummy scores, backing up what you pointed out in the other thread. Double dummy says that West leading a low spade at trick 1 is the only way to defeat the contract.

 

If West instead leads a heart - whether the 9 or low - the contract is makeable.. by winning in dummy and immediately leading low to the ten of clubs! If a declarer did that I'd be pretty suspicious :)

 

Why are we talking about heart leads? 5/6 pairs led a ♦ against NT, making +1,2,3

We were comparing these results to the pair who lead a small ♠ -1

[smerriman]

Why are we talking about heart leads? 5/6 pairs led a ♦ against NT, making +1,2,3

We were comparing these results to the pair who lead a small ♠ -1

Well, the thread moved on a bit since then :) But the main reason the pair who led the small spade took it down was because declarer ducked, after which the defense is much easier. If declarer had won, it would still be beatable double dummy, but the contract would likely have made at the table.

 

My comment was in reply to Mike who couldn't see the spade lead working (for that reason), but could see a heart lead beating the contract - and again, it would have beat the contract at the table, despite double dummy saying otherwise.

 

Both cases show the human results are really quite independent from what double dummy shows, so looking and seeing there is a 'killing spade lead' misses the point.

[mikeh]

Well, the thread moved on a bit since then :) But the main reason the pair who led the small spade took it down was because declarer ducked, after which the defense is much easier. If declarer had won, it would still be beatable double dummy, but the contract would likely have made at the table.

 

My comment was in reply to Mike who couldn't see the spade lead working (for that reason), but could see a heart lead beating the contract - and again, it would have beat the contract at the table, despite double dummy saying otherwise.

 

Both cases show the human results are really quite independent from what double dummy shows, so looking and seeing there is a 'killing spade lead' misses the point.

In fairness, my comment about the spade lead failing was made at 4:40 am, during a brief interlude involving a bathroom break😀 I’d previously said that I thought a spade lead always set the contract, with good defence thereafter, but had forgotten that ducking the first diamond, if played from hand, allowed winning the second and playing a third.

[jillybean]

Oh, I should remember to add a :P to comments like "killer spade lead", I did not intend to suggest this was the optimum human lead.

 

I don't see how winning the first spade makes it any more difficult, E has winners in all the side suits, and 2 more spades