Opening lead problem

[AL78]

[hv=pc=n&n=sk7hk942da83ct763&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=ppp1c2c(Michaels)2d4h5dppp]133|200[/hv]

 

MPs, your lead?

[mycroft]

MPs makes it hard. But I think my hope for setting this is the ♠K, then getting into partner's hand after winning the ♦A.

 

How good a field is it - do I expect most to duplicate my 4♥ call, or are there some going to be in 3NT? -600 might be a huge result (if 3NT makes, it likely makes 4), +100 might not be at all enough (if 3NT goes down, it probably goes down 2 at least).

 

What do our Michaels bids look like? mini-maxi, it's likely that partner doesn't have either major Ace, and while they should have at least one of the queens, maybe I should just play passive and get my Kings on the finesse. "stuff, especially vulnerable", and that changes. Note that the answer to this question also modifies "how many will get to/be allowed to get to 3NT?" question above - if they don't Michaels, you might not get a chance to make the 4♥ choice. It will also decide how much you think 4♥X would have gone for...

[AL78]

MPs makes it hard. But I think my hope for setting this is the ♠K, then getting into partner's hand after winning the ♦A.

 

How good a field is it - do I expect most to duplicate my 4♥ call, or are there some going to be in 3NT? -600 might be a huge result (if 3NT makes, it likely makes 4), +100 might not be at all enough (if 3NT goes down, it probably goes down 2 at least).

 

What do our Michaels bids look like? mini-maxi, it's likely that partner doesn't have either major Ace, and while they should have at least one of the queens, maybe I should just play passive and get my Kings on the finesse. "stuff, especially vulnerable", and that changes. Note that the answer to this question also modifies "how many will get to/be allowed to get to 3NT?" question above - if they don't Michaels, you might not get a chance to make the 4♥ choice. It will also decide how much you think 4♥X would have gone for...

 

To answer your questions it is a mixed field, overall the standard is poor. As for the Michaels bid, it is the first time it has come up with this partner so all I can deduce is that she holds the majors. Assume it is futile trying to predict the field, it is often all over the place especially in these competitive auctions.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

it is either hearts or spades.

The Ace of trumps gives me time, ..., my first reaction was heart, if hearts are 5-4-2-2,

I need to develop my heart trick now, but the King of spades is certainly a strong valid alternative.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[thepossum]

King of spades? Now to read the thread

I base my leads on very basic standard leads I learned years ago

Chance of two spade tricks, a ruff and the Ace of trumps

 

Note: Also backed up by Sim :)

Leads are my favourite Sim problems to see how they stack up

After a few other Sim runs, anything other than a (small) trump EDIT or the ten of clubs:)

There really isn't much in it and I don't know how many Sim runs are required

Which takes me back to the King of spades

EDIT again if you consider variance Ace of trumps and spades have smallest variance - toss a coin

[AL78]

My thinking was that declarer has a big minor two suited hand and there was a risk that major suit losers will get discarded on clubs. Assuming declarer is short in hearts they might not be able to get any of dummy's heart losers away without drawing trumps as partner is very short in clubs and probably has one or two diamonds so will ruff any immediate attempt to discard losers, therefore no rush to take our heart trick. There might be a need to start off active in the spade suit since if declarer has the ace and partner holds the queen, we need to knock out the ace before declarer knocks out my diamond ace so any spade tricks our way can be established before they can go on the clubs. If partner holds the spade ace then that will be fine as well.

 

I therefore decided to lead the spade king and immediately gift wrapped the contract to declarer as this was the full deal:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sjt832haqt7dtcq52&w=saq64hj853dqj965c&n=sk7hk942da83ct763&e=s95h6dk742cakj984&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=ppp1c2c(Michaels)2d4h5dppp]399|300[/hv]

 

[Cyberyeti]

So partner does something off the planet again and you get a bad result, this is NOTHING LIKE a michaels cue bid. W should be checked for a pulse, I'm opening a diamond playing pretty much anything that isn't strong diamond. now you get a fit jump in clubs and N has to lead blind and find a heart.

[pescetom]

None of the other three players is playing bridge, why should you?

[jillybean]

You're playing at my club? 😂

[AL78]

None of the other three players is playing bridge, why should you?

 

Despite the occasional silly nonsense that passes as bridge at my local club, I still like to try and treat each hand as a logic puzzle and attempt (with mixed success) to work out the best action based on the available information. This is where the gameplay lies for me. These days I primarily play because I enjoy the company of my partners, without that there would be little incentive to keep playing.

 

On another table this hand got passed out. The EW pair who decided not to open on either hand were the eventual winners.

 

Given I have no interest in online bridge, my only options are persevere at this club or find another hobby. Since the pandemic the better players have stayed online which means the F2F standard has dropped off a cliff, and there is little chance of that changing anytime soon.

[pescetom]

Since the pandemic the better players have stayed online which means the F2F standard has dropped off a cliff, and there is little chance of that changing anytime soon.

That's an interesting twist.

In my club here almost everybody gave up on "serious" online once F2F was restored (the RA forbode clubs to organise tournaments online).

The F2F standard dropped off a cliff (which disappointed me doubly, as they were rapidly improving online before resuming F2F).

But that is partly because 4cM finally hit the dust and those who did not go online have not yet metabolized alternatives.

There is also some reaction, a few improvers have reverted to online teams/duplicate and we will field a team in regional competition huddling behind screens for the first time in years (mixed, but it's a start).