Tell me I'm crazy :)

[jillybean]

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[smerriman]

You're crazy.

 

OK, now that that's out of the way, time to look at the hand.. :)

 

But it appears you're going to need AK AK in both minors, or AK AQ might do half the time, or rarer cases when you can set up a long minor winner.. but these seem too long odds to use RKC.

 

Ran a super basic sim where all it assumes is that North has 5+ spades, <= 1 heart, and 12+ HCP (perhaps generous).

 

- 26% of the time partner has 2+ aces and slam is makeable

- 21% of the time partner has 0-1 aces and 5S is makeable

- 30% of the time partner has 2+ aces and slam goes down

- 23% of the time partner has 0-1 aces and 5S goes down

 

It doesn't look good to me.

[jillybean]

It's not the first time I've been called crazy, nor will it be the last.

 

I don't know how to do simulations but I do know partner has ta most ♠Q, no values in hearts, all of his values are in the minors, and we have 10 trump.

With 5 trump and shortness in partners other suits we have good ruffing opportunities.

[DavidKok]

That's awkward. You need to find partner with a lot of good cards to make a slam - as smerriman pointed out, having first round control in each minor suit is not enough unless partner happens to have the bare ace of hearts or a void. Our small hearts are an asset, but other than that we've got a minimum. Conversely partner is missing ♠AK, and if we sign off now partner will expect wasted heart values and a minimum opener. An awkward hand for the system - I would really have liked to learn of partner's minor suits, rather than the heart shortage.

 

As an aside, the 3♦ bid was probably a mistake. You got the most favourable answer and are still stuck for a bid - better to interrupt partner and ask a different question. I'm not familiar enough with the system, but not having any idea how strong partner is, nor having communicated how strong we are, seems like a serious flaw to me.

 

I think you can gamble on 4♥ last train, which will at least keep you out of slam if a minor suit is wide open. The risk that partner will put us in 5 making 4 is relatively slim - partner has got empty spades and heart shortage, and therefore minor suit values. Our jacks are pulling their weight, and if we are missing too many aces we can stop at the 5-level, or partner won't even bid keycards (picture something like ♠Qxxxxx, ♥x, ♦KQ, ♣KQTx where we only have 10 tricks, but that hand never bids on over last train, and swap the diamond king for the ace and we have an easy 11 tricks while partner will still likely not bid on over last train).

[Cyberyeti]

One question. If partner has Qxxxx, x, Ax, AKxxx do they respond 2N or do they have a fit jump available ? we would fit jump with that.

 

Also is 3N a known singleton, do you bid a void differently ? and if not do you have a way of confirming which it is ? xxxxxx, void, Ax, AKxxx is an excellent grand.

[DavidKok]

I just noticed that 3♣ denies having extras, sorry for not catching that the first time. ♠xxxxxx, ♥-, ♦Ax, ♣AKxxx definitely is extras if partner shows a game forcing hand with a spade fit, and some of the example hands I was thinking of for 6 (♠Qxxxx, ♥-, ♦AQxx, ♣KQTx) should also show extras. Since partner is limited to a minimum opener we should sign off in 4, and probably should have on hearing 3♣.

[LBengtsson]

Ther are pure players who will say that your hand does not warrant a Jacoby 2NT response here as it does not contain 13+ points, though I cannot see any other way to describe the hand except with a Bergen response - if you use them. I do not know every variation of responses to the Jacoby 2NT response, but I would be bidding 4♠ after 3♣ here. What 4♠ specifically shows here I do not know, other than I am minimum. Whether it shows just strong trump support and nothing outside, no stiffs/voids or side suits and this sort of sort of balanced 5422 or similar I am guessing.

 

Yes, there are plenty of hands other commentators have posted where slam is easy, even a grand if partner has the right cards.

[Cyberyeti]

I just noticed that 3♣ denies having extras, sorry for not catching that the first time. ♠xxxxxx, ♥-, ♦Ax, ♣AKxxxx definitely is extras if partner shows a game forcing hand with a spade fit, and some of the example hands I was thinking of for 6 (♠Qxxxx, ♥-, ♦AQxx, ♣KQTx) should also show extras. Since partner is limited to a minimum opener we should sign off in 4, and probably should have on hearing 3♣.

 

Depends if shape is "extras" by their methods, or they really mean points

[DavidKok]

Depends if shape is "extras" by their methods, or they really mean points

I assumed neither interpretation. A game force has been established, and trumps have been set. The scale on which you can (fail to have) extras is on slam suitability - different from raw playing strength, HCP, shape, points, losing tricks and whatnot. Opener should reevaluate their hand in the context of deciding between 4♠ and 6♠, since those are the two most likely contracts (and it so happens that suitability for 6♠, 7♠ and even 6X and 7X is very similar).

 

For example: having weak trumps is not as big a deal as it may seem, since responder is the overwhelming favourite to have a few of the missing spade honours. Slow tricks in outside suits are less important than quick tricks, with special emphasis on aces. ♠xxxxxx, ♥x, ♦x, ♣AKxxx is (arguably) not even worth a 1-level opening but is worth extras in light of the auction, while ♠KQxxx, ♥Qx, ♦QJx. ♣AJx is worth one positive sound after which it is wise to attempt to sign off.

[Cyberyeti]

I assumed neither interpretation. A game force has been established, and trumps have been set. The scale on which you can (fail to have) extras is on slam suitability - different from raw playing strength, HCP, shape, points, losing tricks and whatnot. Opener should reevaluate their hand in the context of deciding between 4♠ and 6♠, since those are the two most likely contracts (and it so happens that suitability for 6♠, 7♠ and even 6X and 7X is very similar).

 

For example: having weak trumps is not as big a deal as it may seem, since responder is the overwhelming favourite to have a few of the missing spade honours. Slow tricks in outside suits are less important than quick tricks, with special emphasis on aces. ♠xxxxxx, ♥x, ♦x, ♣AKxxx is (arguably) not even worth a 1-level opening but is worth extras in light of the auction, while ♠KQxxx, ♥Qx, ♦QJx. ♣AJx is worth one positive sound after which it is wise to attempt to sign off.

 

Doesn't matter what you or I consider to be extras, it matters what the OP does. Your last hand looks like a 1N opener rather than 1♠ to me if in range, but may not to the OP.

[jillybean]

Our system over 2nt, 3♣ says I have shortage but no extras, extras defined as a K more than minimum, a good working 15 count.

3♦, no shortage, any hand.

3♥/♠/3nt "extras" and shortage in ♣/♦/other major

 

We play 12-14nt

 

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[jillybean]

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Lead ♥A 5 10 8

♥Q

[DavidKok]

Well, you escaped the killing diamond lead. Counting 3 heart ruffs, 5 spades and both minor suit aces only adds up to 10 tricks, so we will need to establish clubs. If the club king is onside we will always get at least three club tricks. If spades break 3-0 we have issues with entries to the dummy for ruffing hearts, but thankfully our opponents have drawn one heart and continued another. Ruff the second heart, spade to the ace (if neither opponent shows out we just need the club king onside), ruff a third heart with the eight (or queen), spade to the king and run the jack of clubs, repeating the finesse if it holds. If the spades split 3-0 we have to take the same line, playing the hand with three spades for at least three clubs (cash the ace of diamonds after the second round of clubs, cash the third round of clubs pitching a diamond, ruff a diamond, ruff the heart (high), and the last two spades in dummy give the last two tricks). Just be careful, you cannot draw three rounds of trumps if they split 3-0.

[jillybean]

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We pulled trump and ran the ♣J, K was onside.

 

Not a great bid I know but an amazing hand.

[johnu]

 

Well, you escaped the killing diamond lead. Counting 3 heart ruffs, 5 spades and both minor suit aces only adds up to 10 tricks, so we will need to establish clubs. If the club king is onside we will always get at least three club tricks. If spades break 3-0 we have issues with entries to the dummy for ruffing hearts, but thankfully our opponents have drawn one heart and continued another. Ruff the second heart, spade to the ace (if neither opponent shows out we just need the club king onside), ruff a third heart with the eight (or queen), spade to the king and run the jack of clubs, repeating the finesse if it holds. If the spades split 3-0 we have to take the same line, playing the hand with three spades for at least three clubs (cash the ace of diamonds after the second round of clubs, cash the third round of clubs pitching a diamond, ruff a diamond, ruff the heart (high), and the last two spades in dummy give the last two tricks). Just be careful, you cannot draw three rounds of trumps if they split 3-0.

 

 

 

There is no killing diamond lead. You always need the club finesse to work so you can always take a club finesse and eventually pitch a diamond from South and avoid a diamond loser. If trumps are 2-1, just draw trumps, take the club finesse and pitch a diamond on the third round of clubs, give up a heart, and cross ruff. If trumps are 3-0, you can only draw 1 round of trumps early because if you immediately draw 2 rounds of trump, you still have a heart to lose and the defense can play a 3rd round of trump to cut down your cross ruff.