MPs, how do you estimate what the field will do?

[AL78]

Poor judgement is one reason I lose at bridge:

 

East

♠964

♥AQT62

♦A7

♣J93

 

[hv=d=e&v=e&b=6&a=pp1d1s2hp3d3sdppp]133|100[/hv]

 

MPs playing with an inexperienced partner. I doubled because I thought we had the balance of the strength, North was taking liberties, and if it makes -140 will be a bad score anyway. How wrong I was.

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sjt8h9873d52ckt87&w=skhkjdkqj9863c542&n=saq7532h54dt4caq6&e=s964haqt62da7cj93]399|300[/hv]

 

-530 was a bottom and if I had kept my mouth shut, -140 would have been an average:

 

4♦ W 9 100

3♠ N 9 140

3♠X 9 N 530

3♠ N 10 170

4♠ N 9 -50

4♦ W 12 -170

3♠ N 9 140

 

How do good players manage to judge how to take action based on what is likely to happen across the field?

[mikeh]

This may not be a popular approach, but I generally don’t worry about ‘the field’ during the bidding.

 

In any matchpoint event, there are so many variables at play. Even in, say, a Blue Ribbon Finals (arguably the toughest mp field in the world), systemic variations as well as judgment variations make predicting ‘field’ actions on most hands very difficult.

 

There are exceptions but such are usually in uncontested, simple auctions. Also, it can be important to assess field results during the play, as opposed to the bidding.

 

For example, you have a bidding decision and guess wrong, ending in 3N rather than 4S….and you think, once dummy hits, that the field will almost all be in 4S. If 4S is cold but you have only 9 tricks in 3N, you should risk the contract if doing so gives you some non-trivial chance at 10 tricks.

 

Returning to your problem: an experienced partner would understand that your double is unlikely to be a strong suggestion of a penalty…especially looking at the spade King. North, by the way, made an insane 3S bid…which emphasizes why trying to read the field during a competitive auction is a poor approach, imo.

 

Your partner had a difficult decision but I think 4D is likely best (tough to be objective when one sees all the hands).

 

Finally, you seem to be playing a very sound opening bid style. I’d recommend opening the east hand…not because you have 11 hcp but because you have AQ10xx in hearts…the 10 is an important card for me when looking at close decisions…and a side ace and no rebid issue, and it’s matchpoints (I’d open at imps as well, but that’s because I enjoy playing a light opening style).

 

Note that even if you think this too light to open, surely some players might…and this is another reason why predicting field actions mid-auction is so difficult. You open and the entire auction has a different flavour.

 

I said ‘finally’ earlier, but there is an old but true saying out there that says: if they never make a doubled contract against you, you’re not doubling enough contracts’. Of course, here, if you’re trying to protect a partial your way, you need to beat them two tricks….I’d put the odds of that, just on your auction and hand, very low. There’s likely no difference between +50 for down 1 undoubled and +100 for doubling.

[AL78]

Finally, you seem to be playing a very sound opening bid style. I’d recommend opening the east hand…not because you have 11 hcp but because you have AQ10xx in hearts…the 10 is an important card for me when looking at close decisions…and a side ace and no rebid issue, and it’s matchpoints (I’d open at imps as well, but that’s because I enjoy playing a light opening style).

 

We were playing a weak NT. If I open 1♥ and partner responds 2♦ I have to rebid my hearts. If playing a strong NT I can bid 2NT instead. I'm not a fan of opening flat eight loser hands, but I am happy to accept I am out of touch with modern bidding styles.

[AL78]

North, by the way, made an insane 3S bid…

 

That's nothing. Here is one of the first boards we played:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=saht8632d42ckj854&w=st9873h9daq3ct762&n=s62hkqjdkjt76ca93&e=skqj54ha754d985cq&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=1sp2s3d3sp4sppp]399|300[/hv]

 

Partner's inexperience meant she didn't appreciate I was competing, not inviting so we got 25% for going one off. When we sat out, I explained the differences between raises with and without competition, and the other options I have if I wanted to invite game.

[DavidKok]

That's nothing. Here is one of the first boards we played:

1♠ is the only good bid of the entire auction.

 

Edit: Sorry, that's too unkind. I think it is clear that many people in this field, plausibly you and your partner included, are taking some wild gambles and anti-percentage actions relatively often. In such a field the correlations between making the right call, ending up in a good contract and scoring well are not that solid, so I wouldn't worry too much about any individual board.

[mikeh]

That's nothing. Here is one of the first boards we played:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=saht8632d42ckj854&w=st9873h9daq3ct762&n=s62hkqjdkjt76ca93&e=skqj54ha754d985cq&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=1sp2s3d3sp4sppp]399|300[/hv]

 

Partner's inexperience meant she didn't appreciate I was competing, not inviting so we got 25% for going one off. When we sat out, I explained the differences between raises with and without competition, and the other options I have if I wanted to invite game.

It wasn’t your partner’s fault

 

You had zero business bidding 3S

 

Yes, it’s competitive and not a game try, but it does show a better playing hand than you held….including almost always six spade.in that context, your partner had massive undisclosed values

 

Was 4S an error? Arguably since the diamond queen is wasted. But might you not have something like AKxxxx Axx x Qxx?

 

Personally, I think 4S is wrong simply because I don’t think that it’s clear (at all) that game rates to have play opposite many ‘correct’ 3S bid, but I’d say it was close

 

Your 3S, otoh, was grotesque.

 

xxx in diamonds with a diamond lead? Only 5 spades? Wtf were you thinking?

 

Pass!

 

Your partner, with five trump (rather than the three she might have had) and an undoubtedly working stiff in hearts and an Ace….it’s her job to bid 3S, not yours.

 

You got what you deserved for bidding your partner’s hand rather than the one you held.

 

Saying ‘pass’ when you’ve already shown your hand can be tough. But you will never become a competent player until you learn discipline

 

I know it’s difficult when, as you do, you play with weak players. However, any good player who sees you consistently make this kind of bid will be reluctant to play with you. Plus you’re not helping your inexperienced partner by telling her that 3S was just competitive, making it all her fault. I’d place the blame at about 95-5 on you, and am being generous to you in doing so.

 

So you pass and maybe she passes as well….now that’s a legitimate teaching moment. Of course, she may surprise you by bidding 3S and then both of you can take credit for a well bid board.

[AL78]

Your 3S, otoh, was grotesque.

 

xxx in diamonds with a diamond lead? Only 5 spades? Wtf were you thinking?

 

My thinking was this:

 

Playing Acol, I only showed four spades with my opening. Partner has shown four spades with her raise. We have a nine card fit and close to half the HCP strength, so I competed to the level of the fit.

[Cyberyeti]

My thinking was this:

 

Playing Acol, I only showed four spades with my opening. Partner has shown four spades with her raise. We have a nine card fit and close to half the HCP strength, so I competed to the level of the fit.

 

Was going to say something like this, Acol rarely raises on 3 particularly if you play the style where 4M4m32 15+ is opened the major.

 

Also I would have bid 3♠ rather than 2 with the W hand (playing 2N as limit+ raise rather than GF as is fairly common here)

[helene_t]

I agree with everything Mike said.

 

Judging what the field is doing is sometimes possible once you see dummy. For example if you had opened the east hand 1nt and partner turned out to have three hearts , you might consider that many pairs would be playing in hearts.

 

But in contested auctions it becomes impossible.

[TMorris]

Was going to say something like this, Acol rarely raises on 3 particularly if you play the style where 4M4m32 15+ is opened the major.

 

Also I would have bid 3♠ rather than 2 with the W hand (playing 2N as limit+ raise rather than GF as is fairly common here)

 

Interesting. I do play a minor before major style with Acol and almost always raise with 3. Even when I was playing a major before minor approach I would regularly raise with 3, especially spades. If completely flat I might bid 1nt but am not convinced it is correct to do so.

 

I could easily have bid 4 ♠ rather than 2 with the W hand. Having bid 2 ♠ competing to 3♠ is straightforward at a later point. Of course with a Michaels bid NS might get to 4H.....

[AL78]

Was going to say something like this, Acol rarely raises on 3 particularly if you play the style where 4M4m32 15+ is opened the major.

 

Also I would have bid 3♠ rather than 2 with the W hand (playing 2N as limit+ raise rather than GF as is fairly common here)

 

We are playing a simple system, Acol with three weak twos, so an immediate 3♠ by partner would have been game invitational.

 

I think being on the wrong end of partscore battles due to non-standard actions by opponents, defending twice as often as declaring and dummy combined over the last few years, and being accused of being passive by one partner, may have eroded my bidding discipline. I think MikeH is correct in that I should pass and trust partner to bid 3♠ with extras, and if she doesn't and we chalk up +100 instead of +140, I can explain why she is worth another bid. If I am going to play with inexperienced players with the aim of helping their bridge, I need to bid and play solidly and down the middle.

 

I will endeavour to maintain discipline in future. I don't normally take punts or am super-aggressive, but very occasionally one dodgy bid slips out, sometimes because of frustration.

 

Thanks for the feedback.

[AL78]

Of course with a Michaels bid NS might get to 4H.....

 

Which makes if NS do not immediately take their black suit tricks.

[Cyberyeti]

Interesting. I do play a minor before major style with Acol and almost always raise with 3. Even when I was playing a major before minor approach I would regularly raise with 3, especially spades. If completely flat I might bid 1nt but am not convinced it is correct to do so.

 

I could easily have bid 4 ♠ rather than 2 with the W hand. Having bid 2 ♠ competing to 3♠ is straightforward at a later point. Of course with a Michaels bid NS might get to 4H.....

 

It also depends what you do with minimum 5332s, if you open 1N with all of them as we do, you know that if partner has 5 spades and a minimum hand you will get back into spades as he'll bid a second suit. You only miss spades opposite 15-16 5(332) and that may well not be a disaster.

[smerriman]

I think MikeH is correct in that I should pass and trust partner to bid 3♠ with extras

I think there's a distinct chance mikeh forgot [didn't realise, was only mentioned in other threads] you were playing 4 card majors, given all of his references to the number of spades in each hand (your partner likely having 3, you having "only 5" and already shown your hand, etc). So while his post makes complete sense in a 5 card major context, I think it's at least worth a clarification as to whether any of it still applies. Perhaps the other factors mean you shouldn't compete to the level of the fit, but 'grotesque' to bid an extra level when you have an extra trump is surely a misunderstanding.