Make this 3NT

[chasetb]

[hv=pc=n&s=sak32hq84dajcj852&n=s6hkt72dkt53caq96&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=p1d1s3nppp]266|200[/hv]

Rotated to make South declarer.

Trick 1 - Q♠ - 6, 4, 2

Trick 2 - 10♠

 

Plan the play from there. First, what do you discard from dummy? I'll give you one hint:

 

Spades break 6-2

 

[mikeh]

I’m not surprised there were no quick replies. These hands are always annoying to play. With every suit double stopped and 27 hcp one expects 3N to be cold…and I’m sure it is, if only we knew how the cards lie.

 

Spades will almost surely be 2=6…leading the Q from Qxx, let alone Q10x, is silly…blowing the suit up if declarer has AJx or KJx (with or without an extra x).

 

Given the suit quality and vulnerability I will tentatively play east for the club King and heart Ace, which poses problems assuming he was sufficiently awake to overtake the 10 at trick 2.

 

I win that, pitching a club.

 

I don’t think I can cater to east holding the diamond queen as well as the other missing high cards, so I’m cashing the diamond ace and advancing the Jack.

 

Most opps will cover with the Queen, since otherwise I may score 4 tricks from AJx opposite K10xx despite west holding, say, Q8xx or Q9xx or even from AJ opposite K10xx if east has xxxx.

 

If he ducks without apparent thought I may pop the King. I’d have to be at the table and have developed a feel for my opps skill level.

 

Assuming a cover of the Jack, win the king and play a heart to my queen…east can’t pop the ace without either giving me the heart suit or setting himself up for a strip squeeze (win the spade return, cash the heart king, diamond 10, pitching a club. Heart queen. That’s 9 cards played and I’ve won 7 tricks. I’m in my hand with x void void Jxx and dummy has void 10 x AQ.

 

If the heart 10 is good, I have 9 tricks. In any event I know the heart situation. And the spades. So if east has the heart Jack and has kept two spades he has a stiff club and I have to decide whether he has the stiff king: J98xxx AJxx xx x….is that a 1S overcall? I think I’d assume it was.

 

Anyway, for now I assume LHO guards hearts and rho is down to 2=2 in the blacks. Now I exit a spade.

 

Of course RHO could see this coming and stiff the club King. However, at the table it’s often possible to sense this even against the best players in the world (ok, not when they’re playing really well, but I’ve read a multi-time WC in such a situation, so it’s possible).

 

Obviously my assumptions may and probably will prove unfounded in some significant way.

 

If the diamond hook loses, I’m down unless I can score 4 clubs….with very limited communication. I’d win the spade return and play east for 10 or 10x, and lead the Jack…playing east for something like J98xxx AJx Qx 10x.

 

In this sort of hand I think one has to decide upon a line and recognize that one may end up looking foolish. Won’t the the first (by a mile) and won’t be the last time.

[LBengtsson]

one expects 3N to be cold…and I’m sure it is, if only we knew how the cards lie.

 

I don’t think I can cater to east holding the diamond queen as well as the other missing high cards, so I’m cashing the diamond ace and advancing the Jack.

 

It is an excellent analysis, mikeh, but you can cater for East holding ♦Qx or Qxx. There should be 9 tricks with 3♣4♦ and 2♠ barring bad breaks and dummy entry problems. But as you say, if only we knew how the cards lie. If only...

 

But that is too easy a solution, I guess...

 

Good hand to post, chasetb

[gszes]

my plan is to try for 3C 4D and 2S

 

trick 1 duck

trick 2 win and pitch a heart

trick 3 club to A

trick 4 dia to J

trick 5 dia A

trick 6 club J (make sure u save the club 6 as an entry back to your hand

 

making 9 tricks if E has 2 or 3 dia (to the Q) and 1 2 or 3 clubs (to the K)

 

some situations might even allow for an overtrick.