Ukraine

[pilowsky]

Speaking at the Oxford Union a few days ago after the start of Putin's invasion.

[thepossum]

As always I run the risk of having a ton of bricks dropped on me from a great height. That's nothing like an unnecessary war

 

I don't know enough really to comment but despite the Russians being seriously uncompromising in defence of their interests, I ask all the other empires/hegemonies represented here how they would act to some of the rumoured aggressions, threats, on their borders and people.

 

Also I hope there is bit more informed discussion on the history of that area than what we have heard so far from global media

 

Don't pick on the people ever, no matter what is going on

 

But I get scared at very one sided global narratives. Always. Sometimes they are justified

 

I know I shouldn't keep doing this (adding stuff) and its risky. Imagine any other alliance trying to push into California or Pennsylvania or even Washington DC

 

I really don't know enough about the history of that place, ancient and immediate to know what is going on at all

 

But all my principles and ideals are torn. You all know how I feel about freedom and authoritarianism

 

PS Apologies as always. I don't like populists. I don't like any use of ad hom. I don't like a world. I guess I'm old fashioned and wars should not be determined by social media. More accurately I don't trust anyone depending on any form of populism because of the interests that may influence them. And maybe this says something about me but I don't trust media stars, entertainers, heroes, people who put their ego ahead of people's interests. And I hate to sound selfish but I never know when I will be silenced on any/ all platforms simply for expressing a well informed but personal opinion. I don't like being bullied, threatened, defamed by someone/anyone who thinks they are that important. Sorry for preemptive defense but freedom can deal with alternative points of view. It doesn't need Gulags. Hope that request for decent behaviour and lack of arrogance from some is not seen as motive for a war. Some of us defend ourselves from known threats very early. I said I hated ego and "its about me" but its not. People are being silenced and hurt. Innocent people. Be careful. I think I am entitled to be pre-emptive here. Some others need to be more carful their behaviour and attitude

[hrothgar]

Personally, I

 

Opposed

 

The Second Gulf War

The Surge

US Invasion of Panama

US invasion of Grenada

 

Favored

 

The First Gulf War

The US invasion of Afghanistan

US military action in Kosovo

 

Confused

US actions in Syria

 

As a rule, I think that one of the big problems that the US has is not necessarily its willingness to act militarily, but rather its unwillingness to be serious about "Nation Building" (yes, I know that is a dirty word). In some cases, I think that we aren't willing enough to do the opposite. For example, if we were serious about going into Iraq, we should have partitioned it (created a Kurdish state, a Shia state, and a Sunni state)

[Winstonm]

Personally, I

 

Opposed

 

The Second Gulf War

The Surge

US Invasion of Panama

US invasion of Grenada

 

Favored

 

The First Gulf War

The US invasion of Afghanistan

US military action in Kosovo

 

Confused

US actions in Syria

 

As a rule, I think that one of the big problems that the US has is not necessarily its willingness to act militarily, but rather its unwillingness to be serious about "Nation Building" (yes, I know that is a dirty word). In some cases, I think that we aren't willing enough to do the opposite. For example, if we were serious about going into Iraq, we should have partitioned it (created a Kurdish state, a Shia state, and a Sunni state)

 

Personally, I think the U.S. has often not understood the limits of military might, that all such action should have a political position as its ultimate goal. It’s not enough to free a country unless you are willing to stay and teach them how to self govern. Without that commitment, the void is always filled but usually with unintended consequences.

[Winstonm]

Russians have a history of underestimating the resolve of the west (Kruschev and Cuban missile crisis comes to mind), so I don’t think it unreasonable to believe Putin has boxed himself in with a gross miscalculation and all his blunder now is an attempt to bluff his way out. People don’t suddenly go crazy unless there is some cause of delusions. I am beginning to think that Putin’s weakness is in direct correlation to his belligerence. I think the reason he won’t sit closer to his oligarchs is that he fears an et tu Brute moment. (Notice he was all snuggly with the Aeroflot flight attendants)

[kenberg]

Maybe the right comparison is to Europe in the 1940s after the second world war. Hungary, Poland, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, others, were all unhappily dominated by the USSR. We didn't go to nuclear war on behalf of Hungary, but it is when NATO began. There was the West and there was the Societ Bloc, soon to be the Sino-Soviet bloc, and we wanted nothing to do with them.

In the 1990s the USSR fell apart and there was, for a while, a thought that perhaps Russia and the West could work together on various matters. A nice optimistic thought that has now vanished.

Back to MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) as our fundamental relationship?

Sure, MAD never really went away but there was hope that we could also work together. No more.

I doubt that this is just a short-term glitch in relations.

[Winstonm]

I am concerned with my own ignorance of the imperialistic aims of China now that they have their own version of a Putin. If both of these countries decided to start eating smaller countries where and how would it end except in either expansion or a nuclear exchange?

[pilowsky]

I am concerned with my own ignorance of the imperialistic aims of China now that they have their own version of a Putin. If both of these countries decided to start eating smaller countries where and how would it end except in either expansion or a nuclear exchange?

 

Most of the Fab's are in Taiwan and South Korea.

Which is why it was unsurprising that Biden spent time in the SOTU speaking glowingly about a new foundry in the USA.

His speech was all about pulling up the drawbridges and circling the wagons.

[pilowsky]

Not going quite as well as the "Operators" hoped.

[helene_t]

Personally, I

 

[....]

Favored

 

The First Gulf War

[...]

 

I was initially in favour also, and maybe I was to the end, but I was a bit worried in retrospect because I thought that I had been seduced by some strange kind of blood craving (or what you call it). Like, when Sadam was pictured as the big monster it was tempting to make up pseudo-rational justifications of the war.

 

Then I thought that maybe it was a bit overkill to engage in war on behalf of a rather insignificant country that was not very democratic anyway (maybe women's and non-Muslims' rights in Kuwait would even be better under Iraqi rule?) and that there wasn't a very good plan for what should happen after the war (the endless sanctions on Iraq did a lot of damage to Iraqi society).

 

Of course the no-flight zone in Kurdistan was a positive but that was more of a spin-off. The justification was more about protecting Saudi Arabia against further Iraqi expansion which seems backwards, as I view the Saudi Arabia regime as one of the two most evil regimes on Earth.

 

I am curious what your thoughts were/are.

[hrothgar]

I was initially in favour also, and maybe I was to the end, but I was a bit worried in retrospect because I thought that I had been seduced by some strange kind of blood craving (or what you call it). Like, when Sadam was pictured as the big monster it was tempting to make up pseudo-rational justifications of the war.

 

Then I thought that maybe it was a bit overkill to engage in war on behalf of a rather insignificant country that was not very democratic anyway (maybe women's and non-Muslims' rights in Kuwait would even be better under Iraqi rule?) and that there wasn't a very good plan for what should happen after the war (the endless sanctions on Iraq did a lot of damage to Iraqi society).

 

Of course the no-flight zone in Kurdistan was a positive but that was more of a spin-off. The justification was more about protecting Saudi Arabia against further Iraqi expansion which seems backwards, as I view the Saudi Arabia regime as one of the two most evil regimes on Earth.

 

I am curious what your thoughts were/are.

 

At a high level, I think that the US should have done everything we could to ween ourselves off fossil fuels starting 30 years back. (Most significantly taxing the hell out of oil / gas / coal / etc) The main reason that I favor this is climate change, but equally significantly, we need to make sure that we aren't dependent on petro-states.

 

With respect to te first Gulf War, this was an unprovoked war of aggression on the part of Iraq (and this sort of thing that can not be allowed). Iraq didn't have nuclear weapons so the US (and allies) we willing / able to roll this back with a conventional military operation. Russia does, so their economy gets destroyed instead.

[kenberg]

I regard Richard's comments as realistic and therefore good.

 

One more thought about the Gulf War. I recall GHW Bush making a brief speech after Iraq invaded Kuwait, saying "This will not stand". Of course war, world politics etc, are very complicated. But I credit GHWB with saying that we would drive the Iraqis out of Kuwait and then bringing that about. At least on this part of it, he realistically assessed what could be done.

Nothing is ever one line simple, I get that. But he did say "This will not stand" and then he saw to it that it didn't stand.

[johnu]

Russians have a history of underestimating the resolve of the west (Kruschev and Cuban missile crisis comes to mind), so I don’t think it unreasonable to believe Putin has boxed himself in with a gross miscalculation and all his blunder now is an attempt to bluff his way out. People don’t suddenly go crazy unless there is some cause of delusions. I am beginning to think that Putin’s weakness is in direct correlation to his belligerence. I think the reason he won’t sit closer to his oligarchs is that he fears an et tu Brute moment. (Notice he was all snuggly with the Aeroflot flight attendants)

In fairness to Putin, he kept his shirt and pants on during his Aeroflot press meeting.

[y66]

What Russian Officials Think of the Invasion of Ukraine by Farida Rustamova translated by Ilya Lozovsky

[y66]

Ezra Klein Interviews Fiona Hill is very good.

[thepossum]

I'm trying to brush up on my knowledge of the Kyivan Rus and the birth of Russia

 

I imagine its all propaganda

 

I think Mrs Bailey needs to be dealt with

 

World History with Mrs Bailey

 

Another interesting piece of trivia looking at the area covered (at some time) by the Kyivan Rus is that the White Sea is at the top and the Black Sea at the bottom.

And to other interests apparently the Black is at the top and the Red at the bottom. And some people just call it the Sea. Wikiversity :)

Which explains some different colourings on chess boards perhaps

 

But I am not happy at those cheering on World War 3. Not after what happened last time. The people of the world deserve a break. Those who leave others alone do

 

Another thing that crosses my mind is the fairly recent history in that region of those who subscribe to constant conflict. Give us a break. I know its meant to be progressive and good for us all

[y66]

In the urgency of the present, our thinking about Ukraine is drawn to the immediate past. We place the current crisis against the backdrop of the “Maidan revolution” of 2013-2014, or the first escalation of tension with Russia in 2007-2008, or the orange revolution of 2004. We go back to the fateful negotiations between 1991 and 1994 over the end of the Soviet Union and Ukraine’s nuclear weapons between.

 

But the history of the Ukrainian nation state in its modern form is older than that. The first Ukrainian nation state to achieve international recognition emerged out of the first great crisis of the Russian empire in 1917-1918. It was solemnified by the Treaty concluded on 9-10 February 1918 by a youthful group of representatives of the Ukrainian parliament, the Rada (which had constituted itself in the course of the 1917 revolution), and the central powers - Imperial Germany, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Bulgaria and the Ottoman Empire.

 

https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-96-brest-litovsk-imperial?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo3NTkzNjUyLCJwb3N0X2lkIjo1MDA0MzM0NCwiXyI6IlFBcEZlIiwiaWF0IjoxNjQ2OTI4MjExLCJleHAiOjE2NDY5MzE4MTEsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0xOTI4NDUiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.TA8nbmjqUdO5jiOi9zGchstBLyQWSFjeVtSITTYDtsg&s=r

 

What do I take from this episode for an understanding of the present?

 

Ukraine has long been one of the fulcrums of Eurasian history.

 

Its history is distinct from but willy-nilly tied to that of Russia.

 

It history is shaped by the violent play of forces between Russia, Europe (Germany) and wider global empires (British Empire, US).

 

That play of forces can be crushing, but it can also, in surprising ways, empower Ukrainian actors, who have repeatedly shown their capacity to exploit historic opportunities.

 

Any far-sighted and realistic vision of order in Europe, including Eastern Europe must reckon with the force of self-determination.

 

Sovereignty has an economic foundation.

 

Simple coercive extraction is extremely expensive and not likely to be a good strategy of power.

[kenberg]

Not surprisingly (to me) I had never heard the Feb 10, 1918 treaty he is speaking of. Even less surprisingly, I find it to be a challenge to make a lot of sense of what he is saying.

Not at all a criticism of Adam Tooze.

I might well put some time into seeing what I can make of it. I doubt I will be ready for an oral exam on the subject any time soon.

So thanks. I mean that.

[pescetom]

Nothing much wrong with that, but in European terms going back one century is little better than only knowing the opening lead.

Poland and Austria-Hungary both dominated Ukraine in the previous centuries and formed the national culture which is anything but subservient to Russia, even after half a century of obligatory russian language and programs in schools.

[y66]

Ezra Klein and Masha Gessen discuss what people living in Russia know and don't know about what's going on:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-masha-gessen.html

[Cyberyeti]

Ezra Klein and Masha Gessen discuss what people living in Russia know and don't know about what's going on:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-masha-gessen.html

 

Anecdotally from my friend in Moscow.

 

Over the 8 years before the war lots of reports of atrocities by the Ukrainians against Donbass.

 

Zelensky is regarded as a Nazi.

 

She is too afraid to use Putin's name on discord (which is how we communicate) for fear it's being monitored.

[thepossum]

Without wanting to appear like a propagandist its going to very painful for a lot of people everywhere who don't deserve it

 

This is a just a few of those who will be hurt according to a propaganda rag

 

RT.com Beware propaganda

 

 

It doesn't even mention all those about to suffer food shortages etc

 

Given past history squeezing Russia takes a long time and doesn't work

 

I forgot. Reportedly 10s thousands of foreign fighters going to fight on both sides. Many of those joining the Russians are anti-ISIL types etc

[Gilithin]

Zelensky is regarded as a Nazi.

Everyone is scared of the Jewish Nazis conquering the world...

[Cyberyeti]

Everyone is scared of the Jewish Nazis conquering the world...

 

This was effectively my response to her.

 

Ukraine has always had issues with racism etc (look at the stories of the African doctors being treated badly at the border as they try to leave), but Zelensky doesn't seem to be part of this

[pescetom]

Ukraine has always had issues with racism etc (look at the stories of the African doctors being treated badly at the border as they try to leave), but Zelensky doesn't seem to be part of this

 

Northern Italy has a significant quota of Ukrainian immigrants who quickly integrated and established a reputation as honest hard working people. Those I know have a high opinion of Zelensky, having seen standards of living back home rise dramatically under his rule.