By Hook or By Look

[lamford]

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East leads the ace of diamonds on which West plays the jack, and switches to a small club. You play the ace. Now how would you play the trumps?

 

My Welsh teammmate Richard Plackett had a tough decision here.

Again Champions Cup, Round 8, table 1 ...

[nullve]

Could we have a look at opps' CC?

[lamford]

Could we have a look at opps' CC?

I can guess. But there are no cards shown on Vugraph. One can assume strong no-trump better minor, reverse carding I think.

[mikeh]

Could we have a look at opps' CC?

Why does it matter? East has the AK of diamonds

 

I’d lead a low spade and play the AK unless east show out.

 

This is slightly percentage in the suit plus if spades are 3-1, I can hope the long spade has 3+ hearts.

[nullve]

Why does it matter? East has the AK of diamonds

 

I’d lead a low spade and play the AK unless east show out.

 

This is slightly percentage in the suit plus if spades are 3-1, I can hope the long spade has 3+ hearts.

But what if it were clear from their CC that

 

* they lead A from AKx(...)

* the low club was attitude

* East would have opened with ♠Q+♦AK+♣Q/K ("we open all 11s")

 

?

[lamford]

But what if it were clear from their CC that

 

* they lead A from AKx(...)

* the low club was attitude

* East would have opened with ♠Q+♦AK+♣Q/K ("we open all 11s")

 

?

The club switch presumably suggested an honour. My view of this is that the queen of spades is about 75% to be onside. If East has the king of clubs, then West has to have the queen of spades. If East has the queen of clubs, then West might have opened the 11-count. Most people seem to these days. Even if East has neither club honour, it is 50% that West has the queen of spades.

 

I think it is clear to cross to the top heart and hook the spade. that is around 80% as it picks up stiff queen with East as well. Cashing the spades drops the queen about 50% of the time, and finds the person with the queen of spades having three or more hearts around 40% of the remainder. About 70% overall. I don't think it is that close.

 

But I have a simulation running with East opening all 12 counts and passing all 11 counts. On that the finesse is leading about 79-71 as I speak.

[Cyberyeti]

The club switch presumably suggested an honour. My view of this is that the queen of spades is about 75% to be onside. If East has the king of clubs, then West has to have the queen of spades. If East has the queen of clubs, then West might have opened the 11-count. Most people seem to these days. Even if East has neither club honour, it is 50% that West has the queen of spades.

 

I think it is clear to cross to the top heart and hook the spade. that is around 80% as it picks up stiff queen with East as well. Cashing the spades drops the queen about 50% of the time, and finds the person with the queen of spades having three or more hearts around 40% of the remainder. About 70% overall. I don't think it is that close.

 

But I have a simulation running with East opening all 12 counts and passing all 11 counts. On that the finesse is leading about 79-71 as I speak.

 

If I was looking at ♠Qx, I would CERTAINLY switch to a very small club from a set of small ones here, I want to lead a club, and I know that my Q figures to make if I represent a club honour.