Straightforward or Esoteric?

[Winstonm]

You get lucky with a club lead. You win the ace, discarding the diamond queen, and lead a heart on which east plays the 6. Now what? Do you play straightforward or try to cater to more distribution because of your hand?

 

[hv=pc=n&s=skq6543haq9754dqc&n=s82h83dkt52caqj96&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1sp1np4hp4sppp]266|200|Club 5 lead[/hv]

 

 

Here is a thought. The spades must be 3-2 to make. West cannot lead two trumps without sacrificing a trump trick for the defense. And if east has the long spade, the contract is safe regardless of the position of the heart king. Bidding changed slightly but should make no difference.

 

Click Next to see one line of play, not necessarily the best. [hv=pc=n&s=skq6543haq9754dqc&w=sa7hkt2d743ct8753&n=s82h83dkt52caqj96&e=sjt9hj6daj986ck42&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=pp1sp1np4hp4sppp&p=c5cac2dqh3h6hqhkd7dtdjs3hah2h8hjh4hts2s9cks4c3c6sksas8std4d2d8s5sqs7c9sjh9c7cj]399|300|Lead 5C[/hv]

 

[LBengtsson]

I would have played it the same as you. no entries to dummy after first trick. trump suit poor missing intermediate cards. you had lucky lead and made best of situation.

[sfi]

There's a pretty good principle that you should try and set up your side suit first on hands like these. Obviously it's not true in all cases, but it should be your first inclination. Here there is no reason not to go with that, and I would have taken your line. Sometimes clean living pays off.

[johnu]

Do you play straightforward or try to cater to more distribution because of your hand?

 

I probably lack imagination, but I can't think of any other line of play that is as good as the one you suggested.

[Winstonm]

I probably lack imagination, but I can't think of any other line of play that is as good as the one you suggested.

We’ll, you could play for Ax of spades onside or you could play for Kx of hearts offside. In both cases you would want to play on spades at trick two.

[johnu]

We'll, you could play for Ax of spades onside or you could play for Kx of hearts offside. In both cases you would want to play on spades at trick two.

 

A combination of a below average play and one very below average play doesn't sound like it would be successful.

 

Assuming 3-2 splits in the majors for simplicity, a back of envelope calculation is:

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Ax onside - 50% doubleton onside and 40% chance ace is in doubleton = 20%

 

or

 

Kx of hearts in either hand - (100 - 20)% x 40% king is in doubleton = 32%

 

Total 20% + 32% = 52%

 

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Still assuming both majors are 3-2,

 

Taking immediate heart finesse

 

50% finesse is successful. Then ♥A and a heart ruff. Can't usually lose more than heart overruff and 2 trumps. If one defender has 2 hearts and 4 trumps, this limits defenders to an overruff and 2 trumps.

 

50% finesse loses. You only go down if a defender has 2 trumps and 2 hearts (without minor suit ruffs). Very roughly, this is about ~25%. So 50% x (100 - 25)% ~= 35%

 

Total = 50% + 35% = 85%.

[Winstonm]

A combination of a below average play and one very below average play doesn't sound like it would be successful.

 

Assuming 3-2 splits in the majors for simplicity, a back of envelope calculation is:

______________________________________________________________________________

 

Ax onside - 50% doubleton onside and 40% chance ace is in doubleton = 20%

 

or

 

Kx of hearts in either hand - (100 - 20)% x 40% king is in doubleton = 32%

 

Total 20% + 32% = 52%

 

Thanks for the math-mories!

_______________________________________________________________________________

 

Still assuming both majors are 3-2,

 

Taking immediate heart finesse

 

50% finesse is successful. Then ♥A and a heart ruff. Can't usually lose more than heart overruff and 2 trumps. If one defender has 2 hearts and 4 trumps, this limits defenders to an overruff and 2 trumps.

 

50% finesse loses. You only go down if a defender has 2 trumps and 2 hearts (without minor suit ruffs). Very roughly, this is about ~25%. So 50% x (100 - 25)% ~= 35%

 

Total = 50% + 35% = 85%.