lead problem 2

[AL78]

Matchpoints against the same decent club pair:

 

[hv=pc=n&n=s94ht97dkqj72cjt2&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=1np2c2s3hp4hppp]133|200[/hv]

 

1NT is 15-17. Do you lead partner's suit or top of your sequence?

[LBengtsson]

little or no chance of ruff with doubleton ♠, also partner is under strong no trump bidder so ♠ lead may give tempo. safe lead ♦K. set up a trick or tricks quickly.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&n=s94ht97dkqj72cjt2&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=1np2c2s3hp4hppp]133|200|

AL78 'Matchpoints against the same decent club pair: 1NT is 15-17. Do you lead partner's suit or top of your sequence?

++++++++++++++++++++++++

I rank

1. ♦K with a partner who expects you to exercise judgement.

2. ♠9 With an "I bid 'em, you lead 'em" partner -- who will be upset if a ♠ lead would have worked -- and his mantra of complaint is likely to wreck your game and his.

3. ♥T.

4. ♣J.

 

[/hv]

[Douglas43]

Very close.

Partner has bid 2♠ vulnerable so should have serious spades. At most we have two spade tricks. If partner has AK and the suit is 6-3-2-2 and the doubleton is on my right, a third spade might promote a trump trick for us. As against that, if partner only has AQJ we could lose a a diamond trick (say dummy has only one spade and declarer has the king).

I'm normally a "You bid 'em, I'm leading 'em" player, but on this occasion, it's K♦ from me.

[AL78]

The full layout:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=skqj752hqjd93c984&w=sat63hak86dt8ca76&n=s94ht97dkqj72cjt2&e=s8h5432da654ckq53&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=1np2c2s3hp4hppp]399|300[/hv]

 

I thought about this and struggled to decide between the two most viable options, and eventually decided to lead my top spade, on the basis that whatever lead I choose, if it goes wrong and the other one would have worked, I won't lose the post-mortem.

 

I didn't lose the post-mortem and my lead was wrong. Declarer wins, starts ruffing spades in dummy. I ruff in on the third round (not realising I was ruffing with a natural trump trick) and played my top diamond. Too late, declarer drew trumps in two rounds and because the clubs are 3-3, the diamond loser went away on the ♣3. 4♥+2 was a bottom, everyone else led the diamond. Cards lie perfectly for declarer and for maximum punishment for finding the wrong lead.