lead problem

[AL78]

MPs.

 

[hv=pc=n&s=skhaq3dkj65cat863&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=p1sd3sp4sppp]133|200[/hv]

 

I wasn't playing so I am making an educated guess as to the auction. Your lead.

[nullve]

♣A

[Winstonm]

Ace clubs for me, too.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&s=skhaq3dkj65cat863&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=p1sd3sp4sppp]133|200|

AL78 'MPs. I wasn't playing so I am making an educated guess as to the auction. Your lead.'

+++++++++++++++++

I rank

1. ♦K. Another attempt at the Brilliancy Prize :)

2. ♣A. Sensible suggestion by Nullve.

3. ♦5.

4. ♠K Might save declarer a guess.

5. ♥A

[/hv]

[AL78]

My friend tried the club ace which (very unluckily) turned out bad.

 

[hv=pc=n&s=skhaq3dkj65cat863&w=sq862h4d7432ckq42&n=s5h87652dat8cj975&e=sajt9743hkjt9dq9c&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=p1sd3sp4sppp]399|300[/hv]

 

The ace gets ruffed and the diamond losers go away on the established ♣KQ. 12 tricks made, 27% NS.

 

A diamond, ♥A or ♠K are the leads which don't give anything away (declarer will play for the drop). It is one of those luck based hands where the opening leader has no safe lead from their perspective, and they just have to pick one and hope.

[Cyberyeti]

If the stiff K of trumps appears as a possibility in a lead problem it is right disproportionately often. I thought about answering that before you gave the solution :)

[Douglas43]

I'd have led Ace of Clubs too.

[nullve]

It is one of those luck based hands where the opening leader has no safe lead from their perspective, and they just have to pick one and hope.

Did you consider sacrificing against 4♠ as North? I think LoTT suggests you should have. Worst case scenario for LoTT is that partner has 2344 shape so that there are only 18 total trumps that need to split 10(them)-8(us) for the sacrifice to be lucrative. Here there are even two fewer total tricks (18) than total trumps (20), but they do indeed split 10(them)-8(us).

[mikeh]

I’m pretty sure that Bird and Antigua’s would endorse the club Ace lead. Such leads apparently work very well at least on a double dummy basis. FWIW, I think it’s clearly the best lead, not seeing the hands

 

Once again, it is essential, to be a good player, not to let individual hands dissuade one from making normal plays.

 

Lead the club, get a poor result, and move on. Lead the club next time as well.

[AL78]

Did you consider sacrificing against 4♠ as North?

 

I wasn't playing, but I know the North player and I don't think she is up to working out that 5♥ has a good chance of getting a better score.

[AL78]

I’m pretty sure that Bird and Antigua’s would endorse the club Ace lead. Such leads apparently work very well at least on a double dummy basis. FWIW, I think it’s clearly the best lead, not seeing the hands

 

Once again, it is essential, to be a good player, not to let individual hands dissuade one from making normal plays.

 

Lead the club, get a poor result, and move on. Lead the club next time as well.

 

I'm not falling for the result on one hand influencing me excessively thing, I wasn't playing but when I saw this hand, I wondered what I would have lead and struggled to see I would have done any better. I've had this happen before, when RHO has pre-empted high (four or five level) and I have a couple of aces and no safe lead, I've lead the wrong ace and it gets ruffed and sets up a ton of discards from dummy's now established suit.