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Opening lead problem


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tritto..........................?
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[hv=d=w&v=b&n=s9852haqt7dt864c5&w=skhk43dj9753cq874&e=saqt73h2dacajt963&s=sj64hj9865dkq2ck2]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

DK is the obvious lead. But is it the right lead? From the bidding we knwo that the declarer has 11 cards at least in black suits. So he has at most two cards in red suits. Our CK should be a winner, so we need another trick from the red suit and we must hope pd to have one red suit ace.

 

Which one?

 

Though we dont know it, but we have a very important reason to lead H. Why? dummy has long diamonds and clubs. His spade and hearts are short. So, the declarer might dispose his heart loser on his spade suit, but he will never be able to discard his diamond loser, if any, on spade.

 

Put it another way, diamond can wait, but heart cannot.

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Guest Jlall
I dont agree with the analyis. For instance, reverse the hearts and diamonds on this hand in declarers hand. He pitches his diamond on the heart king. We are pretty sure lho has hearts controlled as she doesnt know if her pard is 5206 or not and knows we are likely to lead a heart. This means she almost surely has the HK or HA, making a diamond the percentage lead (imo). If lho has a high heart honor, diamond cannot wait.
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<!-- FULLHAND begin --><table border=1> <tr> <td> <table> <tr> <td>Dealer:</td> <td> West </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vul:</td> <td> Both </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scoring:</td> <td> IMP </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td> <table> <tr> <th> </th> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> 9852 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> AQT7 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> T864 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> 5 </td> </tr> </table> </th> <th> </th> </tr> <tr> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> K </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> K43 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> J9753 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> Q874 </td> </tr> </table> </th> <th> </th> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> AQT73 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> 2 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> A </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> AJT963 </td> </tr> </table> </th> </tr> <tr> <th> </th> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> J64 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> J9865 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> KQ2 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> K2 </td> </tr> </table> </th> <th> </th> </tr> </table> </td> <td>  </td> </tr> </table><!-- FULLHAND end -->

 

DK is the obvious lead. But is it the right lead? From the bidding we knwo that the declarer has 11 cards at least in black suits. So he has at most two cards in red suits. Our CK should be a winner, so we need another trick from the red suit and we must hope pd to have one red suit ace.

 

Which one?

 

Though we dont know it, but we have a very important reason to lead H. Why? dummy has long diamonds and clubs. His spade and hearts are short. So, the declarer might dispose his heart loser on his spade suit, but he will never be able to discard his diamond loser, if any, on spade.

 

Put it another way, diamond can wait, but heart cannot.

BTW even vul I bid 1H over 1c opening..get in and get out fast. P is a passed hand so....take a small liberty. Amazing how much trouble a simple overcall of minor suit opening may cause. Now p can bid 3H at their next turn.

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