Double or not?

[pclayton]

I have mixed feelings about this. Justin's comment is certainly the conventional wisdom, but I think with more and more pairs pressing for tight games, that the well-timed double is the only counter. The IMP odds change considerably if -2 with the red card is a distinct possibility. Look at the hand records from the Women's USBF if you want some examples.

 

I played the Anaheim KO's a few months ago with a so-so team and made it to the finals of Bracket I. The team we played had roughly 30,000 MP's - national level, although not a top pro team. First board out of the box they bid a tight game that I knew was getting bad breaks, not only in my hand, but in my partners. She had to play it very carefully to hold it to -500. Our teammates rationally stayed in a part score, so we were +12 or 13. We won by about 20 I think.

 

And I probably don't double with the subject hand. I've learned not to take pard's overcalls too seriously. My guess is that a double turns -2 into -1. Give me QJTx and I crack it.

[P_Marlowe]

[luis]

I double, and lead the dA, maybe they make it but I'm honest and do what I know I would do at the table.

Without the s9 I think I would pass.

[Double !]

Double ! in a heartbeat (actually, in tempo)

 

also lead diamond honor

I want to see dummy

 

absolutly agree that spade 9 is a very important card

[JSilver]

This makes me think about a hand I've seen somewhere:

 

[hv=d=n&v=n&n=sj873hak6da982caq&w=skqthj97dkj73cjt5&e=shqt8532dt54c9643&s=sa96542h4dq6ck872]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

Bidding went:

 

1♣ - pass - 1♠ - pass

2NT - pass - 3♦* - pass

3♠ - pass - 4♣* - pass

4♦* - pass - 4♥ - pass

5♣* - pass - 6♠ - DBL

All pass

 

West lead ♣J. It's obvious what he doubled with: KQT of ♠s and probably ♦K... So declarer takes ♣A, cashes ♥AK (discarding a ♦), ruffs a ♥. Next is ♦ to the Ace, ruff ♦, ♣ to the Q and ruff another ♦. This is the holding:

 

[hv=d=n&v=n&n=sj873hak6da982caq&w=skqthj97dkj73cjt5&e=shqt8532dt54c9643&s=sa96542h4dq6ck872]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

South plays ♣8, ruffed in dummy, ruffs the last ♦, and plays his ♣K. West only had his ♠s left but could only make 1 trick with them...

 

Discussion afterwards:

North: wdp, lucky you got doubled, otherwise I don't see you play it that way

East: omg, why do you double? If you shut up we write +100

West: but East, I thought I had 2 tricks

East: you had 2 tricks, until you doubled

:D

This hand is a far different matter. Your expectation is -1, so a X won't gain much, particularly if the slam isn't bid at the other table, which seems likely. And the loss from letting them make it by telling them where the trumps are is much greater. Also, I don't understand the auction, but it seems possible they could take it out to 6nt and make it.

[cherdano]

I was kibitzing this hand, and I thought it was close. Of course it depends on your overcalling style; if it does promise some 8hcp, and if you would rather overcall 2♥ than 1♥ on ♥KQJxx and almost nothing else (and so 1♥ promises some values outside of hearts), then I think there is a case for double, but I might still pass.

 

Btw, I don't think it is such a disaster if only one top diamond cashes. Once you can force declarer to ruff, your chance for 2 trump tricks despite the double increase dramatically.

 

Arend

[Winstonm]

they know you're too much of a wimp to double

 

There is a big difference between them trying to push you around on partscores verrses freely bidding a game. In the first, they can easily be way out of line; in the latter, seldom.

 

The double with this kind of hand has little to gain and HUGE potential losses; if when they do go set, the doulbe allows them to escape for down 1 instead of 2 because it places the cards - a wash - down 2 undoubled, down 1 doubled. Sure, every once and a while you might catch a good player for down 2, but that's usually when you can tell that all the trumps and their sidesuits are lying poorly - here you don't have that - and the missing 10 of trumps is a huge card.

 

To my thinking, double is not well thought out and is nothing but an expression of bravado that can be very expensive indeed; for me courage is overcoming these

-790 impulses in order to do the right thing for the partnership. If they are going down 1, then a double vulnerable turns our +140 and +100 into +140 and +200. A difference of 2 IMPs. If my double let's them make, I've lost 650 or 12 IMPs. Risking 12 to gain 2 isn't real bright. Only if I were almost dead certain that I were beating it 1 with a reasonable chance for down 2 would I double.

 

That isn't getting pushed around - it's smart bridge.

 

WinstonM

[Al_U_Card]

The opps bid freely to game based on their hands and pard's bid. Keep the nasty surprise for them, not your side. No double, big trouble for them. Opps are likely to have aces opposite stiffs and will try to get home on the cross-ruff, so a small trump lead (keeping your natural trump trick alive) seems to be indicated.

[cherdano]

I don't think +500 is sufficiently likely to warrant a X. If they had had an invitational auction I would though.

But doesn't everybody just blast games these days? How often have you made a game try in the last 1000 boards you played Justin? If you wait for invitational sequences until you double overbid games due to a bad trump break, you may wait a while...

 

Arend

[Al_U_Card]

I would have bid 1NT too, we could still have game.

 

after the 1S bid, I would expect to play 1NT or 2H doubled for minus 500 at least. The 1NT bid is usually an attempt to warn pard that you have their suits (you have no clubs) and that unless he has diamonds he should pass with only 5 hearts and hope. Change your diamonds to clubs and it gets a bit more reasonable with less chance of a double.

[Guest Jlall]

I don't think +500 is sufficiently likely to warrant a X. If they had had an invitational auction I would though.

But doesn't everybody just blast games these days? How often have you made a game try in the last 1000 boards you played Justin? If you wait for invitational sequences until you double overbid games due to a bad trump break, you may wait a while...

 

Arend

Somehow I still believe in partnership bidding so if I have too much to pass and not enough to bid game then I make a game try. Old fashioned I know.

 

Sure people overbid games, but just because they bid one doesn't mean they are overbidding. When they do overbid to games, they never have balanced hands. They will have distribution. If one of my diamonds doesn't cash, I don't see beating them 500 ever. I see them working out the spade position and making their contract because I Xed. The problem on this hand is simply weighing the likelihood that they make (especially when they make BECAUSE of the X) versus the likelihood that you will get 500 or more. I judge the former more likely.

 

Additionally, because I said that I would X had they had an invitational auction this does not mean I wait for invitational auctions to X them. That logic does not follow, I simply think that if they had had an invitational auction that tips the scales more towards 500 being more likely than them making.

[Fluffy]

Ok Arend, ,so how many undertricks did tehy score? :-P

[cherdano]

Ok Arend, ,so how many undertricks did tehy score? :-P

Two of them, but the tricky question is, of course, whether they would have scored 2 undertricks after a double as well -- see yourself:

Traveller

I think it's still down two.

(E.g. Heart to the Ace, ♥Q to the King, spade to the J and A, club to the king, spade to the Queen, but now our hero can just play another low spade and either score his ♠9 or declarer doesn't get his heart ruff)

 

Arend