Plan the play

[AL78]

[hv=pc=n&s=st8742haq8da3ct92&n=sajhk5dk8765cak74]133|200[/hv]

 

Cross-IMP scoring. You are in 3NT, opposition silent. ♥J led:

 

Eight top tricks, diamonds and spades look good for a ninth trick, but what is the safest line to maximise the chance of establishing a trick on one of the long suits?

[Cyberyeti]

Clubs also in the frame, at some point you can consider cashing the ♣A, if the 8, J or Q appears you have better chances than just 3-3.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&s=st8742haq8da3ct92&n=sajhk5dk8765cak74]133|200|AL78 'Cross-IMP scoring. You are in 3NT, opposition silent. ♥J led:Eight top tricks, diamonds and spades look good for a ninth trick, but what is the safest line to maximise the chance of establishing a trick on one of the long suits?'

++++++++++++++++++

Thank you AL78, for the frustrating, deceptively difficult problem. After puzzling for 5 min, I'm no wiser. Guess: you win ♥K. Then you should probably start by cashing ♠A because the contract is cold if an honour drops. Anyway, you might continue by exiting with ♠J. Win ♥A. Unless an opponent has followed small and then shown out in ♠, exit with ♠T, making when

1. ♠ are 3-3 or

2. ♠KQ are doubleton.

3. ♠K or ♠ Q is singleton.

4. ♠9 drops in 2.

5. ♣QJ are doubleton.

6. You've executed some weird squeeze-strip and can read the position.

Admittedly, it looks as if there should be a more promising line.[/hv]

[LBengtsson]

Duck a ♦ @ trick2 is a possible plan. any forum members agree?

[DavidKok]

Win the king of hearts, duck a diamond immediately. If West wins and returns a spade run the jack (may as well), and play will be very difficult. If East wins, or West returns a non-spade, life is simpler. Assuming another round of hearts was played cash the third high heart (hoping they don't split 6-2) and ace of diamonds, cross in clubs, cash the king of diamonds and duck another diamond. This wins if diamonds are 3-3, diamonds are 4-2 and hearts no worse than 5-3, plus gives you some chances with hearts 5-3 or worse and diamonds 5-1 with the hand holding long diamonds also holding short hearts (probable). Keep in mind that you have confirmation of the diamonds being 4-2 or not when you cash the ace of diamonds, so if an opponent shows out on that trick it is not too late to change tacks and play on one of the black suits. In fact, it is probably better to cash the ace of diamonds before the third round of hearts, leaving the last heart stranded to access a black suit trick via throw-in if the diamonds break 5-1.

[hrothgar]

I'm actually tempted to let the Heart run to the my hand and then lead a high club.

 

I'll cover an honor, but otherwise run it to East.

 

I think that this is the best way to avoid a Spade switch

[AL78]

I thought about this for a good minute before playing to trick one. It reminds me of some of those BridgeMaster hands where there is a best line which works whenever it is possible to make the contract, but I don't have the talent to quickly see it. I missed the potential in clubs and focused on the diamonds and spades. I looked at ♠A, run the jack, and tried to work out what I needed for that to work, coming to the conclusion I'd need to set up a spade losing the lead no more than two times, which needs the spades 3-3 or 4-2 with one defender holding KQ or 9x, or 5-1 with a stiff honor. I couldn't work out the odds of this layout so turned to the diamond suit. Ducking a diamond or playing ace, king and another, win the return and knock out the last diamond if they are not 3-3, I set up a third diamond trick before they knock out my heart honors or the hand with four diamonds has short hearts.

 

I went for the simpler play on the diamonds playing the ace and the king, which is probably the wrong line, I think I should duck the second trick to avoid screwing myself if they are 5-1 which might give me chance to play on spades or clubs. There might be a way to combaine chances but I wasn't seeing it. As it happens on the layout there were two simple right answers. Both diamonds and spades were 3-3 so I set up two tricks losing the lead only once and finished with 10 tricks. A couple of heroes made 12 tricks when it was played the other way around and they got a low club lead from QJxxx.

 

I likely took a sub-optimal line, and unlike on BridgeMaster, didn't get punished for it, but looking at it later, couldn't see a clear way of combining chances in spades, hearts and clubs without compromising safety by setting up tricks for the defence, hence why I posted it on here.

[shyams]

Guess: you win ♥K. Then you should probably start by cashing ♠A because the contract is cold if an honour drops. Anyway, you might continue by exiting with ♠J. Win ♥A. Unless an opponent has followed small and then shown out in ♠, exit with ♠T, making when [/size]

1. ♠ are 3-3 or

2. ♠KQ are doubleton.

3. ♠K or ♠ Q is singleton.

4. ♠9 drops in 2.

5. ♣QJ are doubleton.

6. You've executed some weird squeeze-strip and can read the position.

Admittedly, it looks as if there should be a more promising line.

There is one possible improvement I might suggest to this line, which otherwise looks very good to me. It arises from your point #4.

 

If the ♠9 drops in 2 rounds, the play of ♠T as you suggested is a lock. However, if the ♠9 did not drop on the second spade, isn't it better to switch to diamonds, in the hope of a 3-3 split there? If the diamonds don't split, it is quite possible that the long diamond hand had a doubleton spade. Not sure how good this suggestion is but I feel the odds improve a bit (including improved odds on weird squeezes materialising later in the play.

[nige1]

I went for the simpler play on the diamonds playing the ace and the king, which is probably the wrong line, I think I should duck the second trick to avoid screwing myself if they are 5-1 which might give me chance to play on spades or clubs.

IMO, AL78's line is fine. Win ♥Q. Cash ♦A and lead a 2nd ♦, ducking if it looks like RHO will win the trick. Win a ♥ return with dummy's ♥K and set up ♦ unless they are 5-1.

[Evies Dad]

If D are 4-2 or 3-3 there is no problem.

But if you seek to improve the odds and test spades first it seems to me you could go down when D are 4-2 because you lose tempo.

But it feels like doing something in spades is the right plan.

[AL78]

I was put off trying the spades because if I played ace and jack and the nine didn't show up, I have a difficult decision to make. Do I switch to playing on diamonds, or do I try for the 3-3 spade split, knowing that if it is not 3-3, I have just given the defence three spade tricks and they have knocked out my heart honors, so I am almost certainly going down. The fewer entries to my hand wasn't appealing either. I thought if I play on diamonds and hit a 5-1 break, I might be able to recover if I can hit a favourable spade layout.

[gszes]

We "want" to test clubs and spades and diamonds before we make a final choice. Entries (especially to spades) are a problem if we test everything. IMHO we need to start with the spade A. If the K, Q or 9 falls. We have the time/entries to force trick 9. If nothing good happens in spades I would duck a diamond. The spade A might set up a couple of spade tricks but it will almost always allow us to score enough tricks any time the diamonds break 42 or better. The main purpose of ducking a dia

is two fold:

1. They may make a tactical mistake after winning the diamond.

2. We still have diamonds under control in case they break 51 so we can still test clubs (giving up only 2 spades 1 dia and 1 club)

 

Too many variables depending on spots and defense but following this LOP should allow us close to 96% w/o the risk of betting on any one suit until we have more evidence.